bayesRatings

Wild at Avalanche

NHL · Tuesday, May 5 · 7:00 PM CT · Ball Arena · Final MIN 2 – COL 5
← NHL / May 5

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123T
MIN1012
COL2125
Team box
MIN·COL
31
shots
23
0 of 2
power play
2 of 5
37.1
faceoff %
62.9
31
hits
28
13
blocked shots
11
10
penalty minutes
4
Top performers
PlayerTeamGASOG
Nathan MacKinnonCOL125
Martin NecasCOL113
Gabriel LandeskogCOL111
Brett KulakCOL021
Marcus JohanssonMIN104
Kirill KaprizovMIN104
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Filip GustavssonMIN2218.818
Scott WedgewoodCOL3129.935

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
COL +3
MIN +3
P1P2P3
largest lead: COL 3 · MIN 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIN 35%, COL 65% · Updated May 5

Expected margin
COL by 0.9
Expected score
COL 3.6 – 2.7 MIN
Expected total
6.3
WildThe matchupAvalanche
+188Our fair odds−188
2.7Expected goals3.6
+0.16Power rating+0.66
3.3Goals / game3.7
2.9Allowed / game2.5
29.2Shots / game33.7
46.7Faceoff %51.3
21.2Hits / game16.6
46−36 · 4−3 postSeason record55−27 · 5−0 post
5−5Last 109−1

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIN chance · COL chance
Our model fair34.7%65.3%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MINMinnesota Wild+18835%————
COLColorado Avalanche−18865%————
SpreadCOL by 0.9
MINMinnesota Wild+0.9our margin————
COLColorado Avalanche−0.9our margin————
Totalwe expect 6.3
Over6.3our total————
Under6.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Colorado Avalanche by 0.9 expected
Minnesota Wild by 7 goals: <1%Minnesota Wild by 6 goals: <1%Minnesota Wild by 5 goals: 1%Minnesota Wild by 4 goals: 3%Minnesota Wild by 3 goals: 7%Minnesota Wild by 2 goals: 7%Minnesota Wild by 1 goal: 17%Colorado Avalanche by 1 goal: 24%Colorado Avalanche by 2 goals: 12%Colorado Avalanche by 3 goals: 16%Colorado Avalanche by 4 goals: 9%Colorado Avalanche by 5 goals: 4%Colorado Avalanche by 6 goals: 1%Colorado Avalanche by 7 goals: <1%
← MIN wins byCOL wins by →
Colorado Avalanche wins by 2 or more42%
Colorado Avalanche wins by 3 or more30%
Minnesota Wild wins by 2 or more18%
Decided by one goal40%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

6.3 expected
1 goals: 2%2 goals: 2%3 goals: 10%4 goals: 8%5 goals: 20%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 19%8 goals: 8%9 goals: 10%10 goals: 4%11 goals: 4%12 goals: 1%13 goals: 1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 5.558%
Total over 6.546%
Total over 7.528%
Total from 6 to 730%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
MINFilip Gustavsson G · last 5 starts: .836 save %, 4.27 GAAstarted
COLScott Wedgewood G · last 5 starts: .920 save %, 2.15 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIN·COL
May 3 at COL
last game
May 3 vs MIN
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
1
2nd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 82+ games
MIN·COL
+0.16
rating (0 = average)
+0.66
3.3
goals / game
3.7
2.9
goals allowed / game
2.5
46−36 · 4−3 post
season record
55−27 · 5−0 post
23−18
home record
26−15
23−18
away record
29−12
L1
streak
W8
5−5
last 10
9−1
29.2
shots / game
33.7
46.7
faceoff %
51.3
21.2
hits / game
16.6
15.5
blocked shots / game
12.7
4.6
takeaways / game
4.5
14.9
giveaways / game
15.8

Rating Trend

MIN · COL · 179 days
Minnesota WildColorado Avalanche
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · COL 6−4
May 3at COLCOL 9 − 6post
Mar 8at COLCOL 3 − 2 SO
Feb 26at COLMIN 5 − 2
Dec 21, 2025at MINCOL 5 − 1
Nov 28, 2025at MINMIN 3 − 2 SO
Mar 11, 2025at MINMIN 2 − 1 SO
Feb 28, 2025at COLCOL 5 − 2
Jan 20, 2025at COLMIN 3 − 1
Jan 9, 2025at MINCOL 6 − 1
Apr 9, 2024at COLCOL 5 − 2

MIN · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
May 3at COL6 − 9L
Apr 30vs DAL5 − 2W
Apr 28at DAL4 − 2W
Apr 25vs DAL3 − 2W
Apr 22vs DAL3 − 4L
Apr 20at DAL2 − 4L
Apr 18at DAL6 − 1W
Apr 14vs ANA3 − 2W
Apr 13at STL3 − 6L
Apr 11at NSH1 − 2L

COL · Last 10

9−1 · streak W8
May 3vs MIN9 − 6W
Apr 26at LA5 − 1W
Apr 23at LA4 − 2W
Apr 21vs LA2 − 1W
Apr 19vs LA2 − 1W
Apr 16vs SEA2 − 0W
Apr 14at CGY3 − 1W
Apr 13at EDM2 − 1W
Apr 11vs VGK2 − 3L
Apr 9vs CGY3 − 1W