bayesRatings

Kraken at Avalanche

NHL · Thursday, Apr 16 · 9:00 PM CT · Ball Arena · Final SEA 0 – COL 2
← NHL / Apr 16

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123T
SEA0000
COL0112
Team box
SEA·COL
22
shots
35
0 of 2
power play
0 of 4
41.1
faceoff %
58.9
22
hits
12
19
blocked shots
8
10
penalty minutes
6
Top performers
PlayerTeamGASOG
Valeri NichushkinCOL020
Parker KellyCOL103
Nick BlankenburgCOL103
Cale MakarCOL013
Brent BurnsCOL011
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Victor OstmanSEA3533.943
Scott WedgewoodCOL22221.000

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
COL +3
SEA +3
P1P2P3
largest lead: COL 2 · SEA 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SEA 28%, COL 72% · Updated Apr 16

Expected margin
COL by 1.6
Expected score
COL 4.0 – 2.3 SEA
Expected total
6.3
KrakenThe matchupAvalanche
+252Our fair odds−252
2.3Expected goals4.0
−0.24Power rating+0.55
2.8Goals / game3.7
3.2Allowed / game2.5
25.6Shots / game33.7
47.9Faceoff %51.2
18.5Hits / game16.6
34−47Season record54−27
2−8Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SEA chance · COL chance
Our model fair28.4%71.6%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SEASeattle Kraken+25228%————
COLColorado Avalanche−25272%————
SpreadCOL by 1.6
SEASeattle Kraken+1.6our margin————
COLColorado Avalanche−1.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 6.3
Over6.3our total————
Under6.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Colorado Avalanche by 1.6 expected
Seattle Kraken by 8 goals: <1%Seattle Kraken by 7 goals: <1%Seattle Kraken by 6 goals: <1%Seattle Kraken by 5 goals: <1%Seattle Kraken by 4 goals: 1%Seattle Kraken by 3 goals: 4%Seattle Kraken by 2 goals: 4%Seattle Kraken by 1 goal: 17%Colorado Avalanche by 1 goal: 18%Colorado Avalanche by 2 goals: 13%Colorado Avalanche by 3 goals: 20%Colorado Avalanche by 4 goals: 13%Colorado Avalanche by 5 goals: 6%Colorado Avalanche by 6 goals: 1%Colorado Avalanche by 7 goals: 1%Colorado Avalanche by 8 goals: <1%
← SEA wins byCOL wins by →
Colorado Avalanche wins by 2 or more55%
Colorado Avalanche wins by 3 or more42%
Seattle Kraken wins by 2 or more10%
Decided by one goal35%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

6.3 expected
1 goals: 2%2 goals: 2%3 goals: 10%4 goals: 9%5 goals: 20%6 goals: 12%7 goals: 18%8 goals: 9%9 goals: 10%10 goals: 4%11 goals: 3%12 goals: 1%13 goals: 1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 5.558%
Total over 6.546%
Total over 7.528%
Total from 6 to 730%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
SEAVictor Ostman G · no recent starts on recordstarted
COLScott Wedgewood G · last 5 starts: .953 save %, 1.18 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SEA·COL
Apr 15 at VGK
last game
Apr 14 at CGY
0 days
days of rest
1 day
yes
back-to-back
no
4
games in last 7 days
4
2nd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 81+ games
SEA·COL
−0.24
rating (0 = average)
+0.55
2.8
goals / game
3.7
3.2
goals allowed / game
2.5
34−47
season record
54−27
19−22
home record
25−15
15−25
away record
29−12
L2
streak
W2
2−8
last 10
6−4
25.6
shots / game
33.7
47.9
faceoff %
51.2
18.5
hits / game
16.6
15.5
blocked shots / game
12.7
4.8
takeaways / game
4.5
15.1
giveaways / game
15.8

Rating Trend

SEA · COL · 161 days
Seattle KrakenColorado Avalanche
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · COL 8−2
Mar 12at SEACOL 5 − 1
Dec 16, 2025at SEACOL 5 − 3
Dec 22, 2024at COLCOL 5 − 2
Nov 5, 2024at COLCOL 6 − 3
Oct 22, 2024at SEACOL 3 − 2
Nov 13, 2023at SEACOL 5 − 1
Nov 9, 2023at COLSEA 4 − 3
Oct 17, 2023at SEACOL 4 − 1
Apr 30, 2023at COLSEA 2 − 1post
Apr 28, 2023at SEACOL 4 − 1post

SEA · Last 10

2−8 · streak L2
Apr 15at VGK1 − 4L
Apr 13vs LA3 − 5L
Apr 11vs CGY4 − 1W
Apr 9vs VGK4 − 3W
Apr 7at MIN2 − 5L
Apr 6at WPG2 − 6L
Apr 4vs CHI2 − 4L
Apr 2vs UTAH2 − 6L
Mar 31at EDM0 − 3L
Mar 28at BUF2 − 3L

COL · Last 10

6−4 · streak W2
Apr 14at CGY3 − 1W
Apr 13at EDM2 − 1W
Apr 11vs VGK2 − 3L
Apr 9vs CGY3 − 1W
Apr 7at STL3 − 1W
Apr 5vs STL2 − 3L
Apr 4at DAL2 − 0W
Apr 1vs VAN6 − 8L
Mar 30vs CGY9 − 2W
Mar 28vs WPG2 − 4L