bayesRatings

Kings at Kraken

NHL · Monday, Apr 13 · 8:30 PM CT · Climate Pledge Arena · Final LA 5 – SEA 3

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123T
LA2125
SEA0033
Team box
LA·SEA
30
shots
33
1 of 2
power play
0 of 0
55.4
faceoff %
44.6
16
hits
20
18
blocked shots
11
7
penalty minutes
11
Top performers
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Anton ForsbergLA3330.909
Nikke KokkoSEA2925.862

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
SEA +3
LA +3
P1P2P3
largest lead: SEA 0 · LA 3lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was LA 50%, SEA 50% · Updated Apr 13

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
SEA 2.9 – 2.9 LA
Expected total
5.7
KingsThe matchupKraken
+100Our fair odds−100
2.9Expected goals2.9
−0.07Power rating−0.22
2.7Goals / game2.8
3.0Allowed / game3.2
27.9Shots / game25.6
50.0Faceoff %48.0
20.3Hits / game18.4
34−45Season record34−45
6−4Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
LA chance · SEA chance
Our model fair49.9%50.1%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
LALos Angeles Kings+10050%————
SEASeattle Kraken−10050%————
Spreadabout even
LALos Angeles KingsPKour margin————
SEASeattle KrakenPKour margin————
Totalwe expect 5.7
Over5.7our total————
Under5.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Los Angeles Kings by 5 goals: 2%Los Angeles Kings by 4 goals: 5%Los Angeles Kings by 3 goals: 11%Los Angeles Kings by 2 goals: 10%Los Angeles Kings by 1 goal: 22%Seattle Kraken by 1 goal: 22%Seattle Kraken by 2 goals: 10%Seattle Kraken by 3 goals: 11%Seattle Kraken by 4 goals: 5%Seattle Kraken by 5 goals: 2%
← LA wins bySEA wins by →
Seattle Kraken wins by 2 or more28%
Seattle Kraken wins by 3 or more18%
Los Angeles Kings wins by 2 or more28%
Decided by one goal44%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

5.7 expected
1 goals: 3%2 goals: 3%3 goals: 14%4 goals: 10%5 goals: 23%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 17%8 goals: 6%9 goals: 8%10 goals: 2%11 goals: 2%12 goals: 1%13 goals: <1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 4.570%
Total over 5.548%
Total over 6.537%
Total from 5 to 634%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
LAAnton Forsberg G · last 5 starts: .957 save %, 1.37 GAAstarted
SEANikke Kokko G · last 2 starts: .909 save %, 2.00 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
LA·SEA
Apr 11 vs EDM
last game
Apr 11 vs CGY
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
4
road after a home game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 79+ games
LA·SEA
−0.07
rating (0 = average)
−0.22
2.7
goals / game
2.8
3.0
goals allowed / game
3.2
34−45
season record
34−45
15−26
home record
19−21
19−19
away record
15−24
W4
streak
W2
6−4
last 10
3−7
27.9
shots / game
25.6
50.0
faceoff %
48.0
20.3
hits / game
18.4
14.6
blocked shots / game
15.6
4.5
takeaways / game
4.8
15.7
giveaways / game
15.2

Rating Trend

LA · SEA · 158 days
Los Angeles KingsSeattle Kraken
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · SEA 6−4
Feb 4at LASEA 4 − 2
Dec 23, 2025at LASEA 3 − 2
Dec 10, 2025at SEASEA 3 − 2 OT
Apr 15, 2025at SEALA 6 − 5
Apr 7, 2025at LASEA 2 − 1
Jan 18, 2025at SEASEA 4 − 2
Nov 23, 2024at LALA 2 − 1
Apr 3, 2024at LALA 5 − 2
Dec 20, 2023at LASEA 2 − 1
Dec 16, 2023at SEALA 3 − 2 SO

LA · Last 10

6−4 · streak W4
Apr 11vs EDM1 − 0W
Apr 9vs VAN4 − 1W
Apr 6vs NSH3 − 2W
Apr 4vs TOR7 − 6W
Apr 2vs NSH4 − 5L
Apr 1vs STL2 − 1W
Mar 28vs UTAH2 − 6L
Mar 26at VAN4 − 0W
Mar 24at CGY2 − 3L
Mar 22at UTAH3 − 4L

SEA · Last 10

3−7 · streak W2
Apr 11vs CGY4 − 1W
Apr 9vs VGK4 − 3W
Apr 7at MIN2 − 5L
Apr 6at WPG2 − 6L
Apr 4vs CHI2 − 4L
Apr 2vs UTAH2 − 6L
Mar 31at EDM0 − 3L
Mar 28at BUF2 − 3L
Mar 26at TB4 − 3W
Mar 24at FLA4 − 5L