bayesRatings

Oilers at Kings

NHL · Saturday, Apr 11 · 3:00 PM CT · crypto.com Arena · Final EDM 0 – LA 1

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123T
EDM0000
LA1001
Team box
EDM·LA
27
shots
21
0 of 1
power play
0 of 1
44.4
faceoff %
55.6
28
hits
30
16
blocked shots
21
4
penalty minutes
4
Top performers
PlayerTeamGASOG
Artemi PanarinLA101
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Connor IngramEDM2120.952
Anton ForsbergLA27271.000

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
LA +3
EDM +3
P1P2P3
largest lead: LA 1 · EDM 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was EDM 50%, LA 50% · Updated Apr 11

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
EDM 3.2 – 3.0 LA
Expected total
6.2
OilersThe matchupKings
−100Our fair odds+100
3.2Expected goals3.0
+0.08Power rating−0.07
3.5Goals / game2.8
3.4Allowed / game3.0
29.7Shots / game28.0
52.6Faceoff %49.9
18.7Hits / game20.2
40−39Season record33−45
6−4Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
EDM chance · LA chance
Our model fair50.1%49.9%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
EDMEdmonton Oilers−10050%————
LALos Angeles Kings+10050%————
Spreadabout even
EDMEdmonton Oilers−0.2our margin————
LALos Angeles Kings+0.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 6.2
Over6.2our total————
Under6.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Edmonton Oilers by 6 goals: <1%Edmonton Oilers by 5 goals: 2%Edmonton Oilers by 4 goals: 7%Edmonton Oilers by 3 goals: 13%Edmonton Oilers by 2 goals: 10%Edmonton Oilers by 1 goal: 18%Los Angeles Kings by 1 goal: 25%Los Angeles Kings by 2 goals: 9%Los Angeles Kings by 3 goals: 10%Los Angeles Kings by 4 goals: 5%Los Angeles Kings by 5 goals: 2%Los Angeles Kings by 6 goals: <1%
← EDM wins byLA wins by →
Edmonton Oilers wins by 2 or more33%
Edmonton Oilers wins by 3 or more22%
Los Angeles Kings wins by 2 or more25%
Decided by one goal42%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

6.2 expected
1 goals: 2%2 goals: 2%3 goals: 11%4 goals: 8%5 goals: 21%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 19%8 goals: 8%9 goals: 10%10 goals: 3%11 goals: 3%12 goals: 1%13 goals: 1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 5.556%
Total over 6.545%
Total over 7.526%
Total from 6 to 730%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
EDMConnor Ingram G · last 5 starts: .909 save %, 2.55 GAAstarted
LAAnton Forsberg G · last 5 starts: .921 save %, 2.37 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
EDM·LA
Apr 8 at SJ
last game
Apr 9 vs VAN
2 days
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
3rd straight road game
home / road
7th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 78+ games
EDM·LA
+0.08
rating (0 = average)
−0.07
3.5
goals / game
2.8
3.4
goals allowed / game
3.0
40−39
season record
33−45
21−18
home record
14−26
19−21
away record
19−19
W1
streak
W3
6−4
last 10
5−5
29.7
shots / game
28.0
52.6
faceoff %
49.9
18.7
hits / game
20.2
14.5
blocked shots / game
14.5
4.2
takeaways / game
4.5
15.8
giveaways / game
15.8

Rating Trend

EDM · LA · 156 days
Edmonton OilersLos Angeles Kings
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · LA 5−5
Feb 26at LAEDM 8 − 1
Jan 10at EDMLA 4 − 3 SO
May 1, 2025at EDMEDM 6 − 4post
Apr 29, 2025at LAEDM 3 − 1post
Apr 27, 2025at EDMEDM 4 − 3 OTpost
Apr 25, 2025at EDMEDM 7 − 4post
Apr 23, 2025at LALA 6 − 2post
Apr 21, 2025at LALA 6 − 5post
Apr 14, 2025at EDMLA 5 − 0
Apr 5, 2025at LALA 3 − 0

EDM · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Apr 8at SJ5 − 2W
Apr 7at UTAH5 − 6L
Apr 4vs VGK1 − 5L
Apr 2vs CHI3 − 1W
Mar 31vs SEA3 − 0W
Mar 28vs ANA4 − 2W
Mar 26at VGK4 − 3W
Mar 24at UTAH5 − 2W
Mar 21vs TB2 − 5L
Mar 19vs FLA0 − 4L

LA · Last 10

5−5 · streak W3
Apr 9vs VAN4 − 1W
Apr 6vs NSH3 − 2W
Apr 4vs TOR7 − 6W
Apr 2vs NSH4 − 5L
Apr 1vs STL2 − 1W
Mar 28vs UTAH2 − 6L
Mar 26at VAN4 − 0W
Mar 24at CGY2 − 3L
Mar 22at UTAH3 − 4L
Mar 21vs BUF1 − 4L