bayesRatings

Mammoth at Kings

NHL · Saturday, Mar 28 · 8:00 PM CT · crypto.com Arena · Final UTAH 6 – LA 2

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123T
UTAH3216
LA1012
Team box
UTAH·LA
28
shots
31
2 of 3
power play
0 of 2
46.8
faceoff %
53.2
21
hits
36
13
blocked shots
23
4
penalty minutes
6
Top performers
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Karel VejmelkaUTAH3129.935
Anton ForsbergLA11111.000
Darcy KuemperLA1611.688

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
LA +4
UTAH +4
P1P2P3
largest lead: LA 0 · UTAH 4lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was UTAH 50%, LA 50% · Updated Mar 28

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
UTAH 2.8 – 2.8 LA
Expected total
5.6
MammothThe matchupKings
−100Our fair odds+100
2.8Expected goals2.8
+0.07Power rating−0.08
3.1Goals / game2.7
2.9Allowed / game3.0
27.6Shots / game27.8
49.5Faceoff %49.3
19.3Hits / game19.8
37−36Season record29−43
3−7Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
UTAH chance · LA chance
Our model fair50.1%49.9%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
UTAHUtah Mammoth−10050%————
LALos Angeles Kings+10050%————
Spreadabout even
UTAHUtah Mammoth−0.1our margin————
LALos Angeles Kings+0.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 5.6
Over5.6our total————
Under5.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Utah Mammoth by 6 goals: <1%Utah Mammoth by 5 goals: 2%Utah Mammoth by 4 goals: 6%Utah Mammoth by 3 goals: 12%Utah Mammoth by 2 goals: 10%Utah Mammoth by 1 goal: 21%Los Angeles Kings by 1 goal: 24%Los Angeles Kings by 2 goals: 9%Los Angeles Kings by 3 goals: 10%Los Angeles Kings by 4 goals: 5%Los Angeles Kings by 5 goals: 1%Los Angeles Kings by 6 goals: <1%
← UTAH wins byLA wins by →
Utah Mammoth wins by 2 or more30%
Utah Mammoth wins by 3 or more19%
Los Angeles Kings wins by 2 or more26%
Decided by one goal45%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,072 past NHL games.

Total range

5.6 expected
1 goals: 3%2 goals: 3%3 goals: 15%4 goals: 10%5 goals: 23%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 17%8 goals: 6%9 goals: 7%10 goals: 2%11 goals: 2%12 goals: <1%13 goals: <1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 4.569%
Total over 5.546%
Total over 6.535%
Total from 5 to 634%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,072 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
UTAHKarel Vejmelka G · last 5 starts: .888 save %, 2.97 GAAstarted
LADarcy Kuemper G · last 5 starts: .915 save %, 1.93 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
UTAH·LA
Mar 26 vs WSH
last game
Mar 26 at VAN
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
4
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 72+ games
UTAH·LA
+0.07
rating (0 = average)
−0.08
3.1
goals / game
2.7
2.9
goals allowed / game
3.0
37−36
season record
29−43
19−17
home record
10−24
18−19
away record
19−19
L2
streak
W1
3−7
last 10
4−6
27.6
shots / game
27.8
49.5
faceoff %
49.3
19.3
hits / game
19.8
13.8
blocked shots / game
14.2
4.2
takeaways / game
4.6
16.3
giveaways / game
15.7

Rating Trend

UTAH · LA · 143 days
Utah MammothLos Angeles Kings
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 5 meetings · LA 4−1
Mar 22at UTAHUTAH 4 − 3 OT
Dec 8, 2025at UTAHLA 4 − 2
Apr 3, 2025at UTAHLA 4 − 2
Feb 22, 2025at LALA 5 − 3
Oct 26, 2024at LALA 3 − 2

UTAH · Last 10

3−7 · streak L2
Mar 26vs WSH4 − 7L
Mar 24vs EDM2 − 5L
Mar 22vs LA4 − 3W
Mar 20vs ANA1 − 4L
Mar 19at VGK4 − 0W
Mar 16at DAL6 − 3W
Mar 14vs PIT3 − 4L
Mar 12vs CHI2 − 3L
Mar 10at MIN0 − 5L
Mar 9at CHI2 − 3L

LA · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Mar 26at VAN4 − 0W
Mar 24at CGY2 − 3L
Mar 22at UTAH3 − 4L
Mar 21vs BUF1 − 4L
Mar 19vs PHI3 − 4L
Mar 16at NYR4 − 1W
Mar 14at NJ4 − 6L
Mar 13at NYI3 − 2W
Mar 10at BOS1 − 2L
Mar 9at CBJ5 − 4W