bayesRatings

Kings at Canucks

NHL · Thursday, Mar 26 · 9:00 PM CT · Rogers Arena · Final LA 4 – VAN 0

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123T
LA1214
VAN0000
Team box
LA·VAN
38
shots
19
1 of 2
power play
0 of 2
73.8
faceoff %
26.2
23
hits
14
13
blocked shots
13
29
penalty minutes
39
Top performers
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Darcy KuemperLA19191.000
Kevin LankinenVAN3734.919

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
VAN +4
LA +4
P1P2P3
largest lead: VAN 0 · LA 4lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was LA 59%, VAN 41% · Updated Mar 26

Expected margin
LA by 0.6
Expected score
LA 3.1 – 2.6 VAN
Expected total
5.7
KingsThe matchupCanucks
−143Our fair odds+143
3.1Expected goals2.6
−0.08Power rating−0.59
2.7Goals / game2.6
3.0Allowed / game3.7
27.6Shots / game26.1
49.0Faceoff %49.5
19.8Hits / game21.3
28−43Season record21−49
3−7Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
LA chance · VAN chance
Our model fair58.9%41.1%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
LALos Angeles Kings−14359%————
VANVancouver Canucks+14341%————
SpreadLA by 0.6
LALos Angeles Kings−0.6our margin————
VANVancouver Canucks+0.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 5.7
Over5.7our total————
Under5.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Los Angeles Kings by 0.6 expected
Los Angeles Kings by 6 goals: 1%Los Angeles Kings by 5 goals: 3%Los Angeles Kings by 4 goals: 8%Los Angeles Kings by 3 goals: 14%Los Angeles Kings by 2 goals: 12%Los Angeles Kings by 1 goal: 22%Vancouver Canucks by 1 goal: 21%Vancouver Canucks by 2 goals: 8%Vancouver Canucks by 3 goals: 8%Vancouver Canucks by 4 goals: 3%Vancouver Canucks by 5 goals: 1%Vancouver Canucks by 6 goals: <1%
← LA wins byVAN wins by →
Los Angeles Kings wins by 2 or more37%
Los Angeles Kings wins by 3 or more26%
Vancouver Canucks wins by 2 or more20%
Decided by one goal43%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

5.7 expected
1 goals: 3%2 goals: 3%3 goals: 14%4 goals: 10%5 goals: 23%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 17%8 goals: 6%9 goals: 8%10 goals: 2%11 goals: 2%12 goals: 1%13 goals: <1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 4.570%
Total over 5.548%
Total over 6.537%
Total from 5 to 634%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
LADarcy Kuemper G · last 5 starts: .902 save %, 2.32 GAAstarted
VANKevin Lankinen G · last 5 starts: .885 save %, 3.04 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
LA·VAN
Mar 24 at CGY
last game
Mar 24 vs ANA
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
4
games in last 7 days
3
3rd straight road game
home / road
8th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 70+ games
LA·VAN
−0.08
rating (0 = average)
−0.59
2.7
goals / game
2.6
3.0
goals allowed / game
3.7
28−43
season record
21−49
10−24
home record
8−29
18−19
away record
13−20
L4
streak
L3
3−7
last 10
3−7
27.6
shots / game
26.1
49.0
faceoff %
49.5
19.8
hits / game
21.3
14.2
blocked shots / game
13.7
4.6
takeaways / game
4.5
15.8
giveaways / game
15.6

Rating Trend

LA · VAN · 141 days
Los Angeles KingsVancouver Canucks
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · VAN 3−7
Nov 29, 2025at LALA 2 − 1 OT
Feb 26, 2025at LAVAN 3 − 2 OT
Jan 16, 2025at VANLA 5 − 1
Nov 7, 2024at LAVAN 4 − 2
Apr 6, 2024at LALA 6 − 3
Mar 25, 2024at VANLA 3 − 2
Mar 5, 2024at LAVAN 2 − 1 OT
Feb 29, 2024at VANLA 5 − 1
Apr 10, 2023at LALA 3 − 0
Apr 2, 2023at VANLA 4 − 1

LA · Last 10

3−7 · streak L4
Mar 24at CGY2 − 3L
Mar 22at UTAH3 − 4L
Mar 21vs BUF1 − 4L
Mar 19vs PHI3 − 4L
Mar 16at NYR4 − 1W
Mar 14at NJ4 − 6L
Mar 13at NYI3 − 2W
Mar 10at BOS1 − 2L
Mar 9at CBJ5 − 4W
Mar 7vs MTL3 − 4L

VAN · Last 10

3−7 · streak L3
Mar 24vs ANA3 − 5L
Mar 21vs STL1 − 3L
Mar 19vs TB2 − 6L
Mar 17vs FLA5 − 2W
Mar 14vs SEA2 − 5L
Mar 12vs NSH4 − 3W
Mar 9vs OTT0 − 2L
Mar 7at WPG2 − 3L
Mar 6at CHI6 − 3W
Mar 4vs CAR4 − 6L