bayesRatings

Mammoth at Kraken

NHL · Thursday, Apr 2 · 9:00 PM CT · Climate Pledge Arena · Final UTAH 6 – SEA 2

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123T
UTAH1236
SEA2002
Team box
UTAH·SEA
31
shots
27
3 of 6
power play
0 of 3
59.0
faceoff %
41.0
13
hits
24
13
blocked shots
11
6
penalty minutes
12
Top performers
PlayerTeamGASOG
Logan CooleyUTAH213
Dylan GuentherUTAH123
Nick SchmaltzUTAH114
Kailer YamamotoUTAH020
JJ PeterkaUTAH104
Michael CarconeUTAH103
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Karel VejmelkaUTAH2725.926
Joey DaccordSEA3125.806

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
SEA +4
UTAH +4
P1P2P3
largest lead: SEA 2 · UTAH 4lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was UTAH 51%, SEA 49% · Updated Apr 2

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
UTAH 3.1 – 2.9 SEA
Expected total
5.9
MammothThe matchupKraken
−106Our fair odds+106
3.1Expected goals2.9
+0.05Power rating−0.14
3.2Goals / game2.8
2.9Allowed / game3.1
27.6Shots / game25.5
49.5Faceoff %48.1
19.4Hits / game18.6
38−36Season record32−41
4−6Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
UTAH chance · SEA chance
Our model fair51.4%48.6%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
UTAHUtah Mammoth−10651%————
SEASeattle Kraken+10649%————
Spreadabout even
UTAHUtah Mammoth−0.2our margin————
SEASeattle Kraken+0.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 5.9
Over5.9our total————
Under5.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Utah Mammoth by 6 goals: <1%Utah Mammoth by 5 goals: 2%Utah Mammoth by 4 goals: 6%Utah Mammoth by 3 goals: 12%Utah Mammoth by 2 goals: 11%Utah Mammoth by 1 goal: 20%Seattle Kraken by 1 goal: 24%Seattle Kraken by 2 goals: 9%Seattle Kraken by 3 goals: 10%Seattle Kraken by 4 goals: 4%Seattle Kraken by 5 goals: 1%Seattle Kraken by 6 goals: <1%
← UTAH wins bySEA wins by →
Utah Mammoth wins by 2 or more32%
Utah Mammoth wins by 3 or more21%
Seattle Kraken wins by 2 or more25%
Decided by one goal43%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

5.9 expected
1 goals: 2%2 goals: 3%3 goals: 13%4 goals: 9%5 goals: 22%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 18%8 goals: 7%9 goals: 8%10 goals: 3%11 goals: 3%12 goals: 1%13 goals: 1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 4.573%
Total over 5.551%
Total over 6.540%
Total from 5 to 633%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
UTAHKarel Vejmelka G · last 5 starts: .902 save %, 2.79 GAAstarted
SEAJoey Daccord G · last 5 starts: .891 save %, 2.99 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
UTAH·SEA
Mar 28 at LA
last game
Mar 31 at EDM
4 days
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
2
games in last 7 days
3
2nd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 73+ games
UTAH·SEA
+0.05
rating (0 = average)
−0.14
3.2
goals / game
2.8
2.9
goals allowed / game
3.1
38−36
season record
32−41
19−17
home record
17−19
19−19
away record
15−22
W1
streak
L2
4−6
last 10
3−7
27.6
shots / game
25.5
49.5
faceoff %
48.1
19.4
hits / game
18.6
13.8
blocked shots / game
16.0
4.2
takeaways / game
4.7
16.2
giveaways / game
15.3

Rating Trend

UTAH · SEA · 148 days
Utah MammothSeattle Kraken
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 5 meetings · SEA 2−3
Jan 17at UTAHUTAH 6 − 3
Dec 12, 2025at UTAHUTAH 5 − 3
Apr 8, 2025at UTAHUTAH 7 − 1
Mar 14, 2025at SEASEA 4 − 2
Dec 30, 2024at SEASEA 5 − 2

UTAH · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Mar 28at LA6 − 2W
Mar 26vs WSH4 − 7L
Mar 24vs EDM2 − 5L
Mar 22vs LA4 − 3W
Mar 20vs ANA1 − 4L
Mar 19at VGK4 − 0W
Mar 16at DAL6 − 3W
Mar 14vs PIT3 − 4L
Mar 12vs CHI2 − 3L
Mar 10at MIN0 − 5L

SEA · Last 10

3−7 · streak L2
Mar 31at EDM0 − 3L
Mar 28at BUF2 − 3L
Mar 26at TB4 − 3W
Mar 24at FLA4 − 5L
Mar 21at CBJ2 − 5L
Mar 19at NSH1 − 3L
Mar 17vs TB2 − 6L
Mar 15vs FLA6 − 2W
Mar 14at VAN5 − 2W
Mar 12vs COL1 − 5L