bayesRatings

Canucks at Avalanche

NHL · Wednesday, Apr 1 · 7:30 PM CT · Ball Arena · Final VAN 8 – COL 6

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123T
VAN3328
COL2136
Team box
VAN·COL
26
shots
30
1 of 3
power play
0 of 3
55.7
faceoff %
44.3
21
hits
11
14
blocked shots
8
6
penalty minutes
6
Top performers
PlayerTeamGASOG
Brock BoeserVAN314
Sam MalinskiCOL212
Marcus PetterssonVAN121
Teddy BluegerVAN202
Max SassonVAN112
Brent BurnsCOL111
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Kevin LankinenVAN3024.800
Mackenzie BlackwoodCOL1913.684
Scott WedgewoodCOL65.833

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
COL +4
VAN +4
P1P2P3
largest lead: COL 0 · VAN 4lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was VAN 20%, COL 80% · Updated Apr 1

Expected margin
COL by 2.3
Expected score
COL 4.7 – 2.4 VAN
Expected total
7.0
CanucksThe matchupAvalanche
+404Our fair odds−404
2.4Expected goals4.7
−0.70Power rating+0.59
2.6Goals / game3.8
3.8Allowed / game2.5
26.1Shots / game33.8
49.1Faceoff %51.4
21.4Hits / game17.1
21−52Season record49−24
2−8Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
VAN chance · COL chance
Our model fair19.8%80.2%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
VANVancouver Canucks+40420%————
COLColorado Avalanche−40480%————
SpreadCOL by 2.3
VANVancouver Canucks+2.3our margin————
COLColorado Avalanche−2.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 7.0
Over7.0our total————
Under7.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Colorado Avalanche by 2.3 expected
Vancouver Canucks by 9 goals: <1%Vancouver Canucks by 8 goals: <1%Vancouver Canucks by 7 goals: <1%Vancouver Canucks by 6 goals: <1%Vancouver Canucks by 5 goals: <1%Vancouver Canucks by 4 goals: 1%Vancouver Canucks by 3 goals: 2%Vancouver Canucks by 2 goals: 3%Vancouver Canucks by 1 goal: 11%Colorado Avalanche by 1 goal: 16%Colorado Avalanche by 2 goals: 13%Colorado Avalanche by 3 goals: 22%Colorado Avalanche by 4 goals: 17%Colorado Avalanche by 5 goals: 9%Colorado Avalanche by 6 goals: 3%Colorado Avalanche by 7 goals: 2%Colorado Avalanche by 8 goals: 1%Colorado Avalanche by 9 goals: <1%
← VAN wins byCOL wins by →
Colorado Avalanche wins by 2 or more66%
Colorado Avalanche wins by 3 or more53%
Vancouver Canucks wins by 2 or more6%
Decided by one goal27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

7.0 expected
1 goals: 1%2 goals: 1%3 goals: 7%4 goals: 7%5 goals: 16%6 goals: 12%7 goals: 18%8 goals: 11%9 goals: 12%10 goals: 6%11 goals: 5%12 goals: 2%13 goals: 2%14 goals: 1%15 goals: <1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 6.557%
Total over 7.539%
Total over 8.528%
Total from 7 to 829%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
VANKevin Lankinen G · last 5 starts: .889 save %, 3.38 GAAstarted
COLMackenzie Blackwood G · last 5 starts: .881 save %, 2.52 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
VAN·COL
Mar 30 at VGK
last game
Mar 30 vs CGY
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
3rd straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 73+ games
VAN·COL
−0.70
rating (0 = average)
+0.59
2.6
goals / game
3.8
3.8
goals allowed / game
2.5
21−52
season record
49−24
8−30
home record
24−12
13−22
away record
25−12
L6
streak
W1
2−8
last 10
6−4
26.1
shots / game
33.8
49.1
faceoff %
51.4
21.4
hits / game
17.1
13.7
blocked shots / game
12.8
4.5
takeaways / game
4.6
15.6
giveaways / game
15.8

Rating Trend

VAN · COL · 147 days
Vancouver CanucksColorado Avalanche
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · COL 6−4
Dec 2, 2025at COLCOL 3 − 1
Nov 9, 2025at VANCOL 5 − 4 OT
Apr 10, 2025at COLVAN 4 − 1
Feb 4, 2025at VANVAN 3 − 0
Dec 16, 2024at VANVAN 3 − 1
Mar 13, 2024at VANCOL 4 − 3 OT
Feb 20, 2024at COLCOL 3 − 1
Nov 22, 2023at COLCOL 5 − 2
Jan 20, 2023at VANCOL 4 − 1
Jan 5, 2023at VANVAN 4 − 2

VAN · Last 10

2−8 · streak L6
Mar 30at VGK2 − 4L
Mar 28at CGY3 − 7L
Mar 26vs LA0 − 4L
Mar 24vs ANA3 − 5L
Mar 21vs STL1 − 3L
Mar 19vs TB2 − 6L
Mar 17vs FLA5 − 2W
Mar 14vs SEA2 − 5L
Mar 12vs NSH4 − 3W
Mar 9vs OTT0 − 2L

COL · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Mar 30vs CGY9 − 2W
Mar 28vs WPG2 − 4L
Mar 26at WPG3 − 2W
Mar 24at PIT6 − 2W
Mar 22at WSH3 − 2W
Mar 20at CHI4 − 1W
Mar 18vs DAL1 − 2L
Mar 16vs PIT2 − 7L
Mar 14at WPG1 − 3L
Mar 12at SEA5 − 1W