bayesRatings

Avalanche at Oilers

NHL · Monday, Apr 13 · 8:30 PM CT · Rogers Place · Final COL 2 – EDM 1
← NHL / Apr 13

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123OTSOT
COL010012
EDM010001
Team box
COL·EDM
32
shots
31
0 of 4
power play
0 of 3
47.3
faceoff %
52.7
12
hits
22
15
blocked shots
26
6
penalty minutes
8
Top performers
PlayerTeamGASOG
Connor McDavidEDM105
Sam MalinskiCOL104
Evan BouchardEDM013
Nicolas RoyCOL012
Matt SavoieEDM011
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Scott WedgewoodCOL3130.968
Connor IngramEDM3231.969

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
EDM +3
COL +3
P1P2P3OT
largest lead: EDM 0 · COL 1lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was COL 57%, EDM 43% · Updated Apr 13

Expected margin
COL by 0.7
Expected score
COL 3.7 – 3.0 EDM
Expected total
6.7
AvalancheThe matchupOilers
−134Our fair odds+134
3.7Expected goals3.0
+0.53Power rating+0.08
3.7Goals / game3.4
2.5Allowed / game3.3
33.7Shots / game29.7
51.2Faceoff %52.5
16.8Hits / game18.8
52−27Season record40−40
6−4Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
COL chance · EDM chance
Our model fair57.2%42.8%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
COLColorado Avalanche−13457%————
EDMEdmonton Oilers+13443%————
SpreadCOL by 0.7
COLColorado Avalanche−0.7our margin————
EDMEdmonton Oilers+0.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 6.7
Over6.7our total————
Under6.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Colorado Avalanche by 0.7 expected
Colorado Avalanche by 7 goals: <1%Colorado Avalanche by 6 goals: 1%Colorado Avalanche by 5 goals: 4%Colorado Avalanche by 4 goals: 9%Colorado Avalanche by 3 goals: 15%Colorado Avalanche by 2 goals: 12%Colorado Avalanche by 1 goal: 17%Edmonton Oilers by 1 goal: 22%Edmonton Oilers by 2 goals: 7%Edmonton Oilers by 3 goals: 8%Edmonton Oilers by 4 goals: 3%Edmonton Oilers by 5 goals: 1%Edmonton Oilers by 6 goals: <1%Edmonton Oilers by 7 goals: <1%
← COL wins byEDM wins by →
Colorado Avalanche wins by 2 or more41%
Colorado Avalanche wins by 3 or more30%
Edmonton Oilers wins by 2 or more20%
Decided by one goal39%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

6.7 expected
1 goals: 1%2 goals: 2%3 goals: 8%4 goals: 7%5 goals: 18%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 19%8 goals: 9%9 goals: 12%10 goals: 4%11 goals: 5%12 goals: 1%13 goals: 1%14 goals: <1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 5.564%
Total over 6.553%
Total over 7.533%
Total from 6 to 730%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
COLScott Wedgewood G · last 5 starts: .948 save %, 1.18 GAAstarted
EDMConnor Ingram G · last 5 starts: .919 save %, 2.16 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
COL·EDM
Apr 11 vs VGK
last game
Apr 11 at LA
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 79+ games
COL·EDM
+0.53
rating (0 = average)
+0.08
3.7
goals / game
3.4
2.5
goals allowed / game
3.3
52−27
season record
40−40
25−15
home record
21−18
27−12
away record
19−22
L1
streak
L1
6−4
last 10
6−4
33.7
shots / game
29.7
51.2
faceoff %
52.5
16.8
hits / game
18.8
12.7
blocked shots / game
14.5
4.5
takeaways / game
4.2
15.8
giveaways / game
15.8

Rating Trend

COL · EDM · 158 days
Colorado AvalancheEdmonton Oilers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · EDM 5−5
Mar 10at COLEDM 4 − 3
Nov 8, 2025at EDMCOL 9 − 1
Feb 7, 2025at EDMCOL 5 − 4
Jan 16, 2025at COLEDM 4 − 3
Nov 30, 2024at COLEDM 4 − 1
Apr 18, 2024at COLCOL 5 − 1
Apr 5, 2024at EDMEDM 6 − 2
Mar 16, 2024at EDMCOL 3 − 2 OT
Apr 11, 2023at COLEDM 2 − 1 OT
Feb 19, 2023at COLCOL 6 − 5 OT

COL · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Apr 11vs VGK2 − 3L
Apr 9vs CGY3 − 1W
Apr 7at STL3 − 1W
Apr 5vs STL2 − 3L
Apr 4at DAL2 − 0W
Apr 1vs VAN6 − 8L
Mar 30vs CGY9 − 2W
Mar 28vs WPG2 − 4L
Mar 26at WPG3 − 2W
Mar 24at PIT6 − 2W

EDM · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Apr 11at LA0 − 1L
Apr 8at SJ5 − 2W
Apr 7at UTAH5 − 6L
Apr 4vs VGK1 − 5L
Apr 2vs CHI3 − 1W
Mar 31vs SEA3 − 0W
Mar 28vs ANA4 − 2W
Mar 26at VGK4 − 3W
Mar 24at UTAH5 − 2W
Mar 21vs TB2 − 5L