bayesRatings

Ducks at Wild

NHL · Tuesday, Apr 14 · 7:00 PM CT · Grand Casino Arena · Final ANA 2 – MIN 3

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123T
ANA1012
MIN1113
Team box
ANA·MIN
37
shots
20
1 of 3
power play
0 of 1
53.4
faceoff %
46.6
16
hits
25
7
blocked shots
16
4
penalty minutes
8
Top performers
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Lukas DostalANA2017.850
Jesper WallstedtMIN3735.946

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIN +3
ANA +3
P1P2P3
largest lead: MIN 2 · ANA 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ANA 40%, MIN 60% · Updated Apr 14

Expected margin
MIN by 0.7
Expected score
MIN 3.6 – 2.9 ANA
Expected total
6.5
DucksThe matchupWild
+152Our fair odds−152
2.9Expected goals3.6
−0.17Power rating+0.12
3.3Goals / game3.3
3.5Allowed / game2.9
30.6Shots / game29.3
47.7Faceoff %46.7
21.1Hits / game21.2
42−38Season record45−36
3−7Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ANA chance · MIN chance
Our model fair39.6%60.4%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ANAAnaheim Ducks+15240%————
MINMinnesota Wild−15260%————
SpreadMIN by 0.7
ANAAnaheim Ducks+0.7our margin————
MINMinnesota Wild−0.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 6.5
Over6.5our total————
Under6.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Minnesota Wild by 0.7 expected
Anaheim Ducks by 7 goals: <1%Anaheim Ducks by 6 goals: <1%Anaheim Ducks by 5 goals: 1%Anaheim Ducks by 4 goals: 4%Anaheim Ducks by 3 goals: 8%Anaheim Ducks by 2 goals: 7%Anaheim Ducks by 1 goal: 19%Minnesota Wild by 1 goal: 21%Minnesota Wild by 2 goals: 11%Minnesota Wild by 3 goals: 15%Minnesota Wild by 4 goals: 9%Minnesota Wild by 5 goals: 3%Minnesota Wild by 6 goals: 1%Minnesota Wild by 7 goals: <1%
← ANA wins byMIN wins by →
Minnesota Wild wins by 2 or more40%
Minnesota Wild wins by 3 or more28%
Anaheim Ducks wins by 2 or more20%
Decided by one goal40%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,070 past NHL games.

Total range

6.5 expected
1 goals: 1%2 goals: 2%3 goals: 9%4 goals: 8%5 goals: 19%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 19%8 goals: 8%9 goals: 11%10 goals: 4%11 goals: 4%12 goals: 1%13 goals: 1%14 goals: <1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 5.561%
Total over 6.550%
Total over 7.530%
Total from 6 to 730%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,070 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
ANALukas Dostal G · last 5 starts: .833 save %, 3.94 GAAstarted
MINJesper Wallstedt G · last 5 starts: .930 save %, 1.83 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ANA·MIN
Apr 12 vs VAN
last game
Apr 13 at STL
1 day
days of rest
0 days
no
back-to-back
yes
3
games in last 7 days
4
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 80+ games
ANA·MIN
−0.17
rating (0 = average)
+0.12
3.3
goals / game
3.3
3.5
goals allowed / game
2.9
42−38
season record
45−36
24−17
home record
22−18
18−21
away record
23−18
L1
streak
L3
3−7
last 10
5−5
30.6
shots / game
29.3
47.7
faceoff %
46.7
21.1
hits / game
21.2
14.6
blocked shots / game
15.5
5.1
takeaways / game
4.5
15.5
giveaways / game
15.0

Rating Trend

ANA · MIN · 159 days
Anaheim DucksMinnesota Wild
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MIN 9−1
Jan 2at ANAMIN 5 − 2
Nov 15, 2025at MINMIN 2 − 0
Apr 15, 2025at MINMIN 3 − 2 OT
Dec 6, 2024at ANAMIN 5 − 1
Nov 8, 2024at ANAMIN 5 − 2
Mar 19, 2024at ANAMIN 4 − 0
Mar 14, 2024at MINMIN 2 − 0
Jan 27, 2024at MINANA 3 − 2
Dec 21, 2022at ANAMIN 4 − 1
Dec 3, 2022at MINMIN 5 − 4 SO

ANA · Last 10

3−7 · streak L1
Apr 12vs VAN3 − 4L
Apr 9vs SJ6 − 1W
Apr 7vs NSH0 − 5L
Apr 4vs CGY3 − 5L
Apr 3vs STL2 − 6L
Apr 1at SJ3 − 4L
Mar 30vs TOR4 − 5L
Mar 28at EDM2 − 4L
Mar 26at CGY3 − 2W
Mar 24at VAN5 − 3W

MIN · Last 10

5−5 · streak L3
Apr 13at STL3 − 6L
Apr 11at NSH1 − 2L
Apr 9at DAL4 − 5L
Apr 7vs SEA5 − 2W
Apr 5at DET5 − 4W
Apr 4at OTT4 − 1W
Apr 2vs VAN5 − 2W
Mar 28at BOS3 − 6L
Mar 26at FLA3 − 2W
Mar 24at TB3 − 6L