bayesRatings

Wild at Blues

NHL · Monday, Apr 13 · 7:00 PM CT · Enterprise Center · Final MIN 3 – STL 6
← NHL / Apr 13

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123T
MIN2103
STL1326
Team box
MIN·STL
31
shots
22
1 of 5
power play
0 of 4
41.2
faceoff %
58.8
23
hits
15
8
blocked shots
6
13
penalty minutes
15
Top performers
PlayerTeamGASOG
Nick FolignoMIN112
Jimmy SnuggerudSTL112
Michael McCarronMIN103
Theo LindsteinSTL103
Danila YurovMIN102
Otto StenbergSTL102
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Filip GustavssonMIN2116.762
Joel HoferSTL3128.903

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
STL +3
MIN +3
P1P2P3
largest lead: STL 3 · MIN 2lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIN 50%, STL 50% · Updated Apr 13

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
MIN 2.9 – 2.8 STL
Expected total
5.7
WildThe matchupBlues
−101Our fair odds+101
2.9Expected goals2.8
+0.14Power rating−0.02
3.3Goals / game2.7
2.9Allowed / game3.1
29.3Shots / game25.3
46.8Faceoff %49.1
21.2Hits / game22.1
45−35Season record34−45
6−4Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIN chance · STL chance
Our model fair50.3%49.7%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MINMinnesota Wild−10150%————
STLSt. Louis Blues+10150%————
Spreadabout even
MINMinnesota Wild−0.1our margin————
STLSt. Louis Blues+0.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 5.7
Over5.7our total————
Under5.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Minnesota Wild by 6 goals: <1%Minnesota Wild by 5 goals: 2%Minnesota Wild by 4 goals: 6%Minnesota Wild by 3 goals: 12%Minnesota Wild by 2 goals: 10%Minnesota Wild by 1 goal: 21%St. Louis Blues by 1 goal: 24%St. Louis Blues by 2 goals: 9%St. Louis Blues by 3 goals: 10%St. Louis Blues by 4 goals: 5%St. Louis Blues by 5 goals: 1%St. Louis Blues by 6 goals: <1%
← MIN wins bySTL wins by →
Minnesota Wild wins by 2 or more30%
Minnesota Wild wins by 3 or more20%
St. Louis Blues wins by 2 or more26%
Decided by one goal44%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

5.7 expected
1 goals: 3%2 goals: 3%3 goals: 14%4 goals: 10%5 goals: 23%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 17%8 goals: 6%9 goals: 8%10 goals: 2%11 goals: 2%12 goals: 1%13 goals: <1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 4.570%
Total over 5.548%
Total over 6.537%
Total from 5 to 634%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
MINFilip Gustavsson G · last 5 starts: .847 save %, 4.08 GAAstarted
STLJoel Hofer G · last 5 starts: .903 save %, 3.05 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIN·STL
Apr 11 at NSH
last game
Apr 11 at CHI
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
3rd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 79+ games
MIN·STL
+0.14
rating (0 = average)
−0.02
3.3
goals / game
2.7
2.9
goals allowed / game
3.1
45−35
season record
34−45
22−18
home record
18−21
23−17
away record
16−24
L2
streak
W1
6−4
last 10
6−4
29.3
shots / game
25.3
46.8
faceoff %
49.1
21.2
hits / game
22.1
15.6
blocked shots / game
13.7
4.5
takeaways / game
4.4
14.9
giveaways / game
14.6

Rating Trend

MIN · STL · 158 days
Minnesota WildSt. Louis Blues
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · STL 5−5
Mar 1at MINSTL 3 − 1
Oct 9, 2025at STLMIN 5 − 0
Mar 15, 2025at MINSTL 5 − 1
Jan 7, 2025at MINMIN 6 − 4
Nov 19, 2024at STLMIN 4 − 2
Oct 15, 2024at STLMIN 4 − 1
Mar 23, 2024at MINSTL 5 − 4 OT
Mar 16, 2024at STLSTL 3 − 2 SO
Mar 2, 2024at STLSTL 3 − 1
Nov 28, 2023at MINMIN 3 − 1

MIN · Last 10

6−4 · streak L2
Apr 11at NSH1 − 2L
Apr 9at DAL4 − 5L
Apr 7vs SEA5 − 2W
Apr 5at DET5 − 4W
Apr 4at OTT4 − 1W
Apr 2vs VAN5 − 2W
Mar 28at BOS3 − 6L
Mar 26at FLA3 − 2W
Mar 24at TB3 − 6L
Mar 21vs DAL2 − 1W

STL · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Apr 11at CHI5 − 3W
Apr 9vs WPG2 − 3L
Apr 7vs COL1 − 3L
Apr 5at COL3 − 2W
Apr 3at ANA6 − 2W
Apr 1at LA1 − 2L
Mar 30at SJ4 − 5L
Mar 28vs TOR5 − 1W
Mar 26vs SJ2 − 1W
Mar 24vs WSH3 − 0W