bayesRatings

Canucks at Ducks

NHL · Sunday, Apr 12 · 7:00 PM CT · Honda Center · Final VAN 4 – ANA 3

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123OTT
VAN20114
ANA10203
Team box
VAN·ANA
26
shots
27
2 of 3
power play
1 of 2
47.5
faceoff %
52.5
16
hits
26
10
blocked shots
9
14
penalty minutes
16
Top performers
PlayerTeamGASOG
Cutter GauthierANA204
Brock BoeserVAN113
Marco RossiVAN112
Chris KreiderANA021
Leo CarlssonANA103
Jake DeBruskVAN102
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Nikita TolopiloVAN2724.889
Lukas DostalANA2622.846

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ANA +3
VAN +3
P1P2P3OT
largest lead: ANA 1 · VAN 2lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was VAN 34%, ANA 66% · Updated Apr 12

Expected margin
ANA by 0.9
Expected score
ANA 4.0 – 3.1 VAN
Expected total
7.2
CanucksThe matchupDucks
+198Our fair odds−198
3.1Expected goals4.0
−0.68Power rating−0.14
2.6Goals / game3.3
3.8Allowed / game3.5
26.2Shots / game30.7
49.3Faceoff %47.7
21.4Hits / game21.0
23−56Season record42−37
2−8Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
VAN chance · ANA chance
Our model fair33.6%66.4%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
VANVancouver Canucks+19834%————
ANAAnaheim Ducks−19866%————
SpreadANA by 0.9
VANVancouver Canucks+0.9our margin————
ANAAnaheim Ducks−0.9our margin————
Totalwe expect 7.2
Over7.2our total————
Under7.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Anaheim Ducks by 0.9 expected
Vancouver Canucks by 7 goals: <1%Vancouver Canucks by 6 goals: <1%Vancouver Canucks by 5 goals: 1%Vancouver Canucks by 4 goals: 4%Vancouver Canucks by 3 goals: 8%Vancouver Canucks by 2 goals: 7%Vancouver Canucks by 1 goal: 13%Anaheim Ducks by 1 goal: 25%Anaheim Ducks by 2 goals: 11%Anaheim Ducks by 3 goals: 16%Anaheim Ducks by 4 goals: 9%Anaheim Ducks by 5 goals: 4%Anaheim Ducks by 6 goals: 1%Anaheim Ducks by 7 goals: <1%
← VAN wins byANA wins by →
Anaheim Ducks wins by 2 or more42%
Anaheim Ducks wins by 3 or more31%
Vancouver Canucks wins by 2 or more20%
Decided by one goal38%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

7.2 expected
1 goals: 1%2 goals: 1%3 goals: 6%4 goals: 6%5 goals: 16%6 goals: 10%7 goals: 19%8 goals: 10%9 goals: 14%10 goals: 6%11 goals: 6%12 goals: 2%13 goals: 2%14 goals: 1%15 goals: <1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 6.560%
Total over 7.541%
Total over 8.531%
Total from 7 to 829%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
VANNikita Tolopilo G · last 5 starts: .860 save %, 4.34 GAAstarted
ANALukas Dostal G · last 5 starts: .850 save %, 3.83 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
VAN·ANA
Apr 11 at SJ
last game
Apr 9 vs SJ
0 days
days of rest
2 days
yes
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
2
3rd straight road game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 79+ games
VAN·ANA
−0.68
rating (0 = average)
−0.14
2.6
goals / game
3.3
3.8
goals allowed / game
3.5
23−56
season record
42−37
8−32
home record
24−16
15−24
away record
18−21
W1
streak
W1
2−8
last 10
4−6
26.2
shots / game
30.7
49.3
faceoff %
47.7
21.4
hits / game
21.0
13.6
blocked shots / game
14.6
4.5
takeaways / game
5.1
15.5
giveaways / game
15.5

Rating Trend

VAN · ANA · 157 days
Vancouver CanucksAnaheim Ducks
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · ANA 2−8
Mar 24at VANANA 5 − 3
Jan 29at VANVAN 2 − 0
Nov 26, 2025at ANAVAN 5 − 4
Apr 5, 2025at VANVAN 6 − 2
Mar 5, 2025at VANVAN 3 − 2
Feb 27, 2025at ANAANA 5 − 2
Nov 5, 2024at ANAVAN 5 − 1
Mar 31, 2024at VANVAN 3 − 2
Mar 3, 2024at ANAVAN 2 − 1
Nov 28, 2023at VANVAN 3 − 1

VAN · Last 10

2−8 · streak W1
Apr 11at SJ4 − 3W
Apr 9at LA1 − 4L
Apr 7vs VGK1 − 2L
Apr 4vs UTAH4 − 7L
Apr 2at MIN2 − 5L
Apr 1at COL8 − 6W
Mar 30at VGK2 − 4L
Mar 28at CGY3 − 7L
Mar 26vs LA0 − 4L
Mar 24vs ANA3 − 5L

ANA · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Apr 9vs SJ6 − 1W
Apr 7vs NSH0 − 5L
Apr 4vs CGY3 − 5L
Apr 3vs STL2 − 6L
Apr 1at SJ3 − 4L
Mar 30vs TOR4 − 5L
Mar 28at EDM2 − 4L
Mar 26at CGY3 − 2W
Mar 24at VAN5 − 3W
Mar 22vs BUF6 − 5W