bayesRatings

Kings at Avalanche

NHL · Sunday, Apr 19 · 2:00 PM CT · Ball Arena · Final LA 1 – COL 2
← NHL / Apr 19

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123T
LA0011
COL0112
Team box
LA·COL
25
shots
32
1 of 4
power play
0 of 4
55.6
faceoff %
44.4
49
hits
35
22
blocked shots
21
10
penalty minutes
10
Top performers
PlayerTeamGASOG
Artturi LehkonenCOL102
Artemi PanarinLA102
Logan O'ConnorCOL101
Alex LaferriereLA014
Nathan MacKinnonCOL013
Brandt ClarkeLA011
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Anton ForsbergLA3230.938
Scott WedgewoodCOL2524.960

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
COL +3
LA +3
P1P2P3
largest lead: COL 2 · LA 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was LA 33%, COL 67% · Updated Apr 19

Expected margin
COL by 1.3
Expected score
COL 3.6 – 2.4 LA
Expected total
6.0
KingsThe matchupAvalanche
+206Our fair odds−206
2.4Expected goals3.6
−0.04Power rating+0.55
2.7Goals / game3.7
3.0Allowed / game2.5
28.0Shots / game33.7
49.9Faceoff %51.3
20.1Hits / game16.6
35−47Season record55−27
6−4Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
LA chance · COL chance
Our model fair32.7%67.3%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
LALos Angeles Kings+20633%————
COLColorado Avalanche−20667%————
SpreadCOL by 1.3
LALos Angeles Kings+1.3our margin————
COLColorado Avalanche−1.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 6.0
Over6.0our total————
Under6.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Colorado Avalanche by 1.3 expected
Los Angeles Kings by 7 goals: <1%Los Angeles Kings by 6 goals: <1%Los Angeles Kings by 5 goals: <1%Los Angeles Kings by 4 goals: 2%Los Angeles Kings by 3 goals: 5%Los Angeles Kings by 2 goals: 5%Los Angeles Kings by 1 goal: 20%Colorado Avalanche by 1 goal: 18%Colorado Avalanche by 2 goals: 13%Colorado Avalanche by 3 goals: 19%Colorado Avalanche by 4 goals: 11%Colorado Avalanche by 5 goals: 5%Colorado Avalanche by 6 goals: 1%Colorado Avalanche by 7 goals: 1%
← LA wins byCOL wins by →
Colorado Avalanche wins by 2 or more50%
Colorado Avalanche wins by 3 or more37%
Los Angeles Kings wins by 2 or more12%
Decided by one goal38%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

6.0 expected
1 goals: 2%2 goals: 3%3 goals: 12%4 goals: 9%5 goals: 21%6 goals: 12%7 goals: 18%8 goals: 8%9 goals: 9%10 goals: 3%11 goals: 3%12 goals: 1%13 goals: 1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 5.553%
Total over 6.541%
Total over 7.524%
Total from 6 to 729%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
LAAnton Forsberg G · last 5 starts: .941 save %, 1.58 GAAstarted
COLScott Wedgewood G · last 5 starts: .966 save %, 0.79 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
LA·COL
Apr 16 at CGY
last game
Apr 16 vs SEA
2 days
days of rest
2 days
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
4th straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 82+ games
LA·COL
−0.04
rating (0 = average)
+0.55
2.7
goals / game
3.7
3.0
goals allowed / game
2.5
35−47
season record
55−27
15−26
home record
26−15
20−21
away record
29−12
L2
streak
W3
6−4
last 10
7−3
28.0
shots / game
33.7
49.9
faceoff %
51.3
20.1
hits / game
16.6
14.6
blocked shots / game
12.7
4.5
takeaways / game
4.5
15.7
giveaways / game
15.8

Rating Trend

LA · COL · 163 days
Los Angeles KingsColorado Avalanche
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · COL 8−2
Mar 2at LACOL 4 − 2
Dec 29, 2025at COLCOL 5 − 2
Oct 7, 2025at LACOL 4 − 1
Apr 12, 2025at LALA 5 − 4
Mar 27, 2025at COLCOL 4 − 0
Nov 13, 2024at COLCOL 4 − 2
Jan 26, 2024at COLCOL 5 − 1
Dec 3, 2023at LALA 4 − 1
Oct 11, 2023at LACOL 5 − 2
Apr 8, 2023at LACOL 4 − 3

LA · Last 10

6−4 · streak L2
Apr 16at CGY1 − 3L
Apr 14at VAN3 − 4L
Apr 13at SEA5 − 3W
Apr 11vs EDM1 − 0W
Apr 9vs VAN4 − 1W
Apr 6vs NSH3 − 2W
Apr 4vs TOR7 − 6W
Apr 2vs NSH4 − 5L
Apr 1vs STL2 − 1W
Mar 28vs UTAH2 − 6L

COL · Last 10

7−3 · streak W3
Apr 16vs SEA2 − 0W
Apr 14at CGY3 − 1W
Apr 13at EDM2 − 1W
Apr 11vs VGK2 − 3L
Apr 9vs CGY3 − 1W
Apr 7at STL3 − 1W
Apr 5vs STL2 − 3L
Apr 4at DAL2 − 0W
Apr 1vs VAN6 − 8L
Mar 30vs CGY9 − 2W