bayesRatings

Kings at Canucks

NHL · Tuesday, Apr 14 · 9:00 PM CT · Rogers Arena · Final LA 3 – VAN 4

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123OTT
LA12003
VAN12014
Team box
LA·VAN
34
shots
25
0 of 2
power play
1 of 2
37.1
faceoff %
62.9
18
hits
20
13
blocked shots
8
11
penalty minutes
11
Top performers
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Darcy KuemperLA2521.840
Kevin LankinenVAN3431.912

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
VAN +3
LA +3
P1P2P3OT
largest lead: VAN 1 · LA 1lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was LA 62%, VAN 38% · Updated Apr 14

Expected margin
LA by 0.8
Expected score
LA 3.4 – 2.6 VAN
Expected total
5.9
KingsThe matchupCanucks
−166Our fair odds+166
3.4Expected goals2.6
−0.04Power rating−0.69
2.8Goals / game2.6
3.0Allowed / game3.8
27.9Shots / game26.1
50.1Faceoff %49.2
20.3Hits / game21.3
35−45Season record24−56
7−3Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
LA chance · VAN chance
Our model fair62.3%37.6%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
LALos Angeles Kings−16662%————
VANVancouver Canucks+16638%————
SpreadLA by 0.8
LALos Angeles Kings−0.8our margin————
VANVancouver Canucks+0.8our margin————
Totalwe expect 5.9
Over5.9our total————
Under5.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Los Angeles Kings by 0.8 expected
Los Angeles Kings by 6 goals: 1%Los Angeles Kings by 5 goals: 3%Los Angeles Kings by 4 goals: 9%Los Angeles Kings by 3 goals: 16%Los Angeles Kings by 2 goals: 12%Los Angeles Kings by 1 goal: 22%Vancouver Canucks by 1 goal: 20%Vancouver Canucks by 2 goals: 7%Vancouver Canucks by 3 goals: 7%Vancouver Canucks by 4 goals: 3%Vancouver Canucks by 5 goals: 1%Vancouver Canucks by 6 goals: <1%
← LA wins byVAN wins by →
Los Angeles Kings wins by 2 or more41%
Los Angeles Kings wins by 3 or more29%
Vancouver Canucks wins by 2 or more18%
Decided by one goal42%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

5.9 expected
1 goals: 2%2 goals: 3%3 goals: 13%4 goals: 9%5 goals: 22%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 18%8 goals: 7%9 goals: 8%10 goals: 3%11 goals: 3%12 goals: 1%13 goals: 1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 4.573%
Total over 5.551%
Total over 6.540%
Total from 5 to 633%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
LADarcy Kuemper G · last 5 starts: .848 save %, 3.49 GAAstarted
VANKevin Lankinen G · last 5 starts: .875 save %, 3.95 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
LA·VAN
Apr 13 at SEA
last game
Apr 12 at ANA
0 days
days of rest
1 day
yes
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
4
2nd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 80+ games
LA·VAN
−0.04
rating (0 = average)
−0.69
2.8
goals / game
2.6
3.0
goals allowed / game
3.8
35−45
season record
24−56
15−26
home record
8−32
20−19
away record
16−24
W5
streak
W2
7−3
last 10
3−7
27.9
shots / game
26.1
50.1
faceoff %
49.2
20.3
hits / game
21.3
14.6
blocked shots / game
13.5
4.5
takeaways / game
4.5
15.8
giveaways / game
15.5

Rating Trend

LA · VAN · 159 days
Los Angeles KingsVancouver Canucks
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · VAN 3−7
Apr 9at LALA 4 − 1
Mar 26at VANLA 4 − 0
Nov 29, 2025at LALA 2 − 1 OT
Feb 26, 2025at LAVAN 3 − 2 OT
Jan 16, 2025at VANLA 5 − 1
Nov 7, 2024at LAVAN 4 − 2
Apr 6, 2024at LALA 6 − 3
Mar 25, 2024at VANLA 3 − 2
Mar 5, 2024at LAVAN 2 − 1 OT
Feb 29, 2024at VANLA 5 − 1

LA · Last 10

7−3 · streak W5
Apr 13at SEA5 − 3W
Apr 11vs EDM1 − 0W
Apr 9vs VAN4 − 1W
Apr 6vs NSH3 − 2W
Apr 4vs TOR7 − 6W
Apr 2vs NSH4 − 5L
Apr 1vs STL2 − 1W
Mar 28vs UTAH2 − 6L
Mar 26at VAN4 − 0W
Mar 24at CGY2 − 3L

VAN · Last 10

3−7 · streak W2
Apr 12at ANA4 − 3W
Apr 11at SJ4 − 3W
Apr 9at LA1 − 4L
Apr 7vs VGK1 − 2L
Apr 4vs UTAH4 − 7L
Apr 2at MIN2 − 5L
Apr 1at COL8 − 6W
Mar 30at VGK2 − 4L
Mar 28at CGY3 − 7L
Mar 26vs LA0 − 4L