bayesRatings

Wild at Avalanche

NHL · Sunday, May 3 · 8:00 PM CT · Ball Arena · Final MIN 6 – COL 9
← NHL / May 3

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123T
MIN2316
COL3249
Team box
MIN·COL
36
shots
43
0 of 3
power play
1 of 2
63.1
faceoff %
36.9
24
hits
26
13
blocked shots
11
8
penalty minutes
10
Top performers
PlayerTeamGASOG
Devon ToewsCOL131
Cale MakarCOL213
Nathan MacKinnonCOL124
Quinn HughesMIN122
Martin NecasCOL033
Artturi LehkonenCOL113
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Jesper WallstedtMIN4234.810
Scott WedgewoodCOL3630.833

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
COL +3
MIN +3
P1P2P3
largest lead: COL 3 · MIN 1lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIN 35%, COL 65% · Updated May 3

Expected margin
COL by 0.9
Expected score
COL 3.5 – 2.6 MIN
Expected total
6.1
WildThe matchupAvalanche
+189Our fair odds−189
2.6Expected goals3.5
+0.14Power rating+0.65
3.3Goals / game3.7
2.9Allowed / game2.5
29.2Shots / game33.7
46.7Faceoff %51.3
21.2Hits / game16.6
46−36 · 4−2 postSeason record55−27 · 4−0 post
5−5Last 109−1

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIN chance · COL chance
Our model fair34.6%65.4%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MINMinnesota Wild+18935%————
COLColorado Avalanche−18965%————
SpreadCOL by 0.9
MINMinnesota Wild+0.9our margin————
COLColorado Avalanche−0.9our margin————
Totalwe expect 6.1
Over6.1our total————
Under6.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Colorado Avalanche by 0.9 expected
Minnesota Wild by 7 goals: <1%Minnesota Wild by 6 goals: <1%Minnesota Wild by 5 goals: 1%Minnesota Wild by 4 goals: 3%Minnesota Wild by 3 goals: 7%Minnesota Wild by 2 goals: 7%Minnesota Wild by 1 goal: 17%Colorado Avalanche by 1 goal: 24%Colorado Avalanche by 2 goals: 12%Colorado Avalanche by 3 goals: 16%Colorado Avalanche by 4 goals: 9%Colorado Avalanche by 5 goals: 4%Colorado Avalanche by 6 goals: 1%Colorado Avalanche by 7 goals: <1%
← MIN wins byCOL wins by →
Colorado Avalanche wins by 2 or more42%
Colorado Avalanche wins by 3 or more30%
Minnesota Wild wins by 2 or more18%
Decided by one goal41%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

6.1 expected
1 goals: 2%2 goals: 2%3 goals: 11%4 goals: 9%5 goals: 21%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 18%8 goals: 8%9 goals: 9%10 goals: 3%11 goals: 3%12 goals: 1%13 goals: 1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 5.554%
Total over 6.543%
Total over 7.525%
Total from 6 to 730%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
MINJesper Wallstedt G · last 5 starts: .917 save %, 2.23 GAAstarted
COLScott Wedgewood G · last 5 starts: .959 save %, 0.98 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIN·COL
Apr 30 vs DAL
last game
Apr 26 at LA
2 days
days of rest
6 days
no
back-to-back
no
2
games in last 7 days
1
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 82+ games
MIN·COL
+0.14
rating (0 = average)
+0.65
3.3
goals / game
3.7
2.9
goals allowed / game
2.5
46−36 · 4−2 post
season record
55−27 · 4−0 post
23−18
home record
26−15
23−18
away record
29−12
W3
streak
W7
5−5
last 10
9−1
29.2
shots / game
33.7
46.7
faceoff %
51.3
21.2
hits / game
16.6
15.5
blocked shots / game
12.7
4.6
takeaways / game
4.5
14.9
giveaways / game
15.8

Rating Trend

MIN · COL · 177 days
Minnesota WildColorado Avalanche
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · COL 6−4
Mar 8at COLCOL 3 − 2 SO
Feb 26at COLMIN 5 − 2
Dec 21, 2025at MINCOL 5 − 1
Nov 28, 2025at MINMIN 3 − 2 SO
Mar 11, 2025at MINMIN 2 − 1 SO
Feb 28, 2025at COLCOL 5 − 2
Jan 20, 2025at COLMIN 3 − 1
Jan 9, 2025at MINCOL 6 − 1
Apr 9, 2024at COLCOL 5 − 2
Apr 4, 2024at MINCOL 5 − 2

MIN · Last 10

5−5 · streak W3
Apr 30vs DAL5 − 2W
Apr 28at DAL4 − 2W
Apr 25vs DAL3 − 2W
Apr 22vs DAL3 − 4L
Apr 20at DAL2 − 4L
Apr 18at DAL6 − 1W
Apr 14vs ANA3 − 2W
Apr 13at STL3 − 6L
Apr 11at NSH1 − 2L
Apr 9at DAL4 − 5L

COL · Last 10

9−1 · streak W7
Apr 26at LA5 − 1W
Apr 23at LA4 − 2W
Apr 21vs LA2 − 1W
Apr 19vs LA2 − 1W
Apr 16vs SEA2 − 0W
Apr 14at CGY3 − 1W
Apr 13at EDM2 − 1W
Apr 11vs VGK2 − 3L
Apr 9vs CGY3 − 1W
Apr 7at STL3 − 1W