bayesRatings

Kings at Avalanche

NHL · Tuesday, Apr 21 · 9:22 PM CT · Ball Arena · Final LA 1 – COL 2
← NHL / Apr 21

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123OTT
LA00101
COL00112
Team box
LA·COL
25
shots
36
1 of 5
power play
0 of 3
53.4
faceoff %
46.6
23
hits
29
26
blocked shots
26
8
penalty minutes
12
Top performers
PlayerTeamGASOG
Gabriel LandeskogCOL104
Nicolas RoyCOL101
Artemi PanarinLA101
Quinton ByfieldLA016
Martin NecasCOL015
Trevor MooreLA013
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Anton ForsbergLA3634.944
Scott WedgewoodCOL2524.960

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
COL +3
LA +3
P1P2P3OT
largest lead: COL 1 · LA 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was LA 31%, COL 69% · Updated Apr 21

Expected margin
COL by 1.4
Expected score
COL 3.6 – 2.2 LA
Expected total
5.8
KingsThe matchupAvalanche
+225Our fair odds−225
2.2Expected goals3.6
−0.07Power rating+0.60
2.7Goals / game3.7
3.0Allowed / game2.5
28.0Shots / game33.7
49.9Faceoff %51.3
20.1Hits / game16.6
35−47 · 0−1 postSeason record55−27 · 1−0 post
6−4Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
LA chance · COL chance
Our model fair30.8%69.2%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
LALos Angeles Kings+22531%————
COLColorado Avalanche−22569%————
SpreadCOL by 1.4
LALos Angeles Kings+1.4our margin————
COLColorado Avalanche−1.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 5.8
Over5.8our total————
Under5.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Colorado Avalanche by 1.4 expected
Los Angeles Kings by 7 goals: <1%Los Angeles Kings by 6 goals: <1%Los Angeles Kings by 5 goals: <1%Los Angeles Kings by 4 goals: 1%Los Angeles Kings by 3 goals: 4%Los Angeles Kings by 2 goals: 5%Los Angeles Kings by 1 goal: 19%Colorado Avalanche by 1 goal: 18%Colorado Avalanche by 2 goals: 14%Colorado Avalanche by 3 goals: 19%Colorado Avalanche by 4 goals: 12%Colorado Avalanche by 5 goals: 5%Colorado Avalanche by 6 goals: 1%Colorado Avalanche by 7 goals: 1%
← LA wins byCOL wins by →
Colorado Avalanche wins by 2 or more52%
Colorado Avalanche wins by 3 or more38%
Los Angeles Kings wins by 2 or more11%
Decided by one goal38%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

5.8 expected
1 goals: 2%2 goals: 3%3 goals: 13%4 goals: 10%5 goals: 22%6 goals: 12%7 goals: 17%8 goals: 7%9 goals: 8%10 goals: 3%11 goals: 2%12 goals: 1%13 goals: <1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 4.571%
Total over 5.550%
Total over 6.538%
Total from 5 to 634%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
LAAnton Forsberg G · last 5 starts: .941 save %, 1.61 GAAstarted
COLScott Wedgewood G · last 5 starts: .974 save %, 0.59 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
LA·COL
Apr 19 at COL
last game
Apr 19 vs LA
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
5th straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 82+ games
LA·COL
−0.07
rating (0 = average)
+0.60
2.7
goals / game
3.7
3.0
goals allowed / game
2.5
35−47 · 0−1 post
season record
55−27 · 1−0 post
15−26
home record
26−15
20−21
away record
29−12
L3
streak
W4
6−4
last 10
7−3
28.0
shots / game
33.7
49.9
faceoff %
51.3
20.1
hits / game
16.6
14.6
blocked shots / game
12.7
4.5
takeaways / game
4.5
15.7
giveaways / game
15.8

Rating Trend

LA · COL · 165 days
Los Angeles KingsColorado Avalanche
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · COL 8−2
Apr 19at COLCOL 2 − 1post
Mar 2at LACOL 4 − 2
Dec 29, 2025at COLCOL 5 − 2
Oct 7, 2025at LACOL 4 − 1
Apr 12, 2025at LALA 5 − 4
Mar 27, 2025at COLCOL 4 − 0
Nov 13, 2024at COLCOL 4 − 2
Jan 26, 2024at COLCOL 5 − 1
Dec 3, 2023at LALA 4 − 1
Oct 11, 2023at LACOL 5 − 2

LA · Last 10

6−4 · streak L3
Apr 19at COL1 − 2L
Apr 16at CGY1 − 3L
Apr 14at VAN3 − 4L
Apr 13at SEA5 − 3W
Apr 11vs EDM1 − 0W
Apr 9vs VAN4 − 1W
Apr 6vs NSH3 − 2W
Apr 4vs TOR7 − 6W
Apr 2vs NSH4 − 5L
Apr 1vs STL2 − 1W

COL · Last 10

7−3 · streak W4
Apr 19vs LA2 − 1W
Apr 16vs SEA2 − 0W
Apr 14at CGY3 − 1W
Apr 13at EDM2 − 1W
Apr 11vs VGK2 − 3L
Apr 9vs CGY3 − 1W
Apr 7at STL3 − 1W
Apr 5vs STL2 − 3L
Apr 4at DAL2 − 0W
Apr 1vs VAN6 − 8L