bayesRatings

Jets at Blues

NHL · Tuesday, Oct 20 · 7:00 PM CT · Enterprise Center · Final WPG 1 – STL 2

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123T
WPG0011
STL1012
Team box
WPG·STL
33
shots
28
0 of 3
power play
1 of 5
45.6
faceoff %
54.4
24
hits
16
9
blocked shots
12
10
penalty minutes
6
Top performers
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Stuart SkinnerWPG2826.929
Joel HoferSTL3332.970

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
STL +3
WPG +3
P1P2P3
largest lead: STL 1 · WPG 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was WPG 44%, STL 56% · Updated Oct 20

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
STL 3.1 – 2.7 WPG
Expected total
5.8
JetsThe matchupBlues
+129Our fair odds−129
2.7Expected goals3.1
−0.02Power rating−0.00
2.9Goals / game3.4
3.0Allowed / game3.5
26.6Shots / game25.9
45.9Faceoff %47.9
22.9Hits / game20.6
4−4Season record3−5
4−6Last 105−5
Vladislav Namestnikov · Connor Hellebuyck
Garrett Brown · Josh Morrissey
OutAlexey Toropchenko · Dillon Dube
Ross Johnston · Torey Krug
Tyler Tucker

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
WPG chance · STL chance
Our model fair43.6%56.4%
Kalshi46.7%57.7%
Polymarket US46.7%57.7%
ProphetX45.9%56.3%
Novig44.5%56.0%
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 7:00 PM CTPolymarket USpre-game · 6:59 PM CTProphetXpre-game · 6:58 PM CTNovigpre-game · 6:58 PM CT
Moneyline
WPGWinnipeg Jets+12944%+11446.7%+11446.7%+11845.9%+12544.5%
STLSt. Louis Blues−12956%−13757.7%−13657.7%−12956.3%−12756.0%
Spreadabout even
WPGWinnipeg Jets+0.4our margin+1.5 −21868.5%+1.5 −21868.5%+1.5 −21668.4%+1.5 −20367.0%
STLSt. Louis Blues−0.4our margin−1.5 +18135.6%−1.5 +18135.6%−1.5 +18535.1%−1.5 +19434.0%
Totalwe expect 5.8
Over5.8our totalo5.5 −12154.7%o5.5 −12655.7%o5.5 −11353.1%o5.5 −11152.5%
Under5.8our totalu5.5 +10149.7%u5.5 +10548.7%u5.5 +10449.1%u5.5 +10848.0%

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Winnipeg Jets by 6 goals: <1%Winnipeg Jets by 5 goals: 1%Winnipeg Jets by 4 goals: 4%Winnipeg Jets by 3 goals: 9%Winnipeg Jets by 2 goals: 9%Winnipeg Jets by 1 goal: 21%St. Louis Blues by 1 goal: 23%St. Louis Blues by 2 goals: 11%St. Louis Blues by 3 goals: 13%St. Louis Blues by 4 goals: 7%St. Louis Blues by 5 goals: 2%St. Louis Blues by 6 goals: <1%
← WPG wins bySTL wins by →
St. Louis Blues wins by 2 or more33%
St. Louis Blues wins by 3 or more22%
Winnipeg Jets wins by 2 or more23%
Decided by one goal44%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

5.8 expected
1 goals: 2%2 goals: 3%3 goals: 14%4 goals: 9%5 goals: 23%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 18%8 goals: 7%9 goals: 8%10 goals: 2%11 goals: 2%12 goals: 1%13 goals: <1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 4.572%
Total over 5.549%
Total over 6.538%
Total from 5 to 634%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
WPGStuart Skinner G · last 5 starts: .906 save %, 2.76 GAAstarted
STLJoel Hofer G · last 5 starts: .905 save %, 2.43 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
WPG·STL
Oct 17 vs CAR
last game
Oct 17 at NSH
2 days
days of rest
2 days
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

Injury list before the game · Oct 20, 2026, 5:40 PM CT
Winnipeg Jets
WPGVladislav Namestnikov · undisclosed, back about Oct 30Out
WPGConnor Hellebuyck · suspension, back about Oct 25IR
WPGGarrett Brown · lower body, back about Oct 30IR
WPGJosh Morrissey · right wrist, back about Nov 1IR
St. Louis Blues
STLAlexey Toropchenko · upper body, back about Nov 14IR
STLDillon Dube · neck, back about Dec 4IR
STLRoss Johnston · lower body, back about Oct 24IR
STLTorey Krug · left ankle, back about Jul 1, 2027IR
STLTyler Tucker · left knee, back about Nov 12IR

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026–27 season · box-score averages from 8+ games
WPG·STL
−0.02
rating (0 = average)
−0.00
2.9
goals / game
3.4
3.0
goals allowed / game
3.5
4−4
season record
3−5
2−3
home record
1−1
2−1
away record
2−4
L2
streak
L2
4−6
last 10
5−5
26.6
shots / game
25.9
45.9
faceoff %
47.9
22.9
hits / game
20.6
14.5
blocked shots / game
11.2
4.1
takeaways / game
3.5
18.4
giveaways / game
16.4

Rating Trend

WPG · STL · 21 days
Winnipeg JetsSt. Louis Blues
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · STL 4−6
Apr 9at STLWPG 3 − 2
Mar 15at WPGWPG 3 − 2
Jan 20at WPGWPG 3 − 1
Dec 17, 2025at STLSTL 1 − 0
May 4, 2025at WPGWPG 4 − 3 OTpost
May 2, 2025at STLSTL 5 − 2post
Apr 30, 2025at WPGWPG 5 − 3post
Apr 27, 2025at STLSTL 5 − 1post
Apr 24, 2025at STLSTL 7 − 2post
Apr 21, 2025at WPGWPG 2 − 1post

WPG · Last 10

4−6 · streak L2
Oct 17vs CAR2 − 3L
Oct 15at CHI3 − 4L
Oct 13vs MIN5 − 2W
Oct 9vs ANA1 − 5L
Oct 7vs COL3 − 2W
Oct 5at PIT3 − 2W
Oct 4at DET3 − 2W
Oct 2vs BOS3 − 4L
Apr 16vs SJ1 − 6L
Apr 14at UTAH3 − 5L

STL · Last 10

5−5 · streak L2
Oct 17at NSH2 − 5L
Oct 15at MIN4 − 5L
Oct 13at OTT7 − 2W
Oct 10vs CBJ5 − 3W
Oct 8vs SJ2 − 3L
Oct 6at CHI2 − 4L
Oct 3at COL1 − 6L
Oct 2at DAL4 − 0W
Apr 16at UTAH5 − 3W
Apr 14vs PIT7 − 5W