bayesRatings

Blue Jackets at Blues

NHL · Saturday, Oct 10 · 6:00 PM CT · Enterprise Center · Final CBJ 3 – STL 5

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123T
CBJ2013
STL0325
Team box
CBJ·STL
23
shots
27
0 of 1
power play
0 of 1
58.3
faceoff %
41.7
17
hits
12
19
blocked shots
8
9
penalty minutes
9
Top performers
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Jet GreavesCBJ2622.846
Jordan BinningtonSTL2320.870

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
STL +3
CBJ +3
P1P2P3
largest lead: STL 2 · CBJ 2lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CBJ 48%, STL 52% · Updated Oct 10

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
STL 3.0 – 2.9 CBJ
Expected total
5.9
Blue JacketsThe matchupBlues
+110Our fair odds−110
2.9Expected goals3.0
+0.01Power rating−0.02
3.3Goals / game2.2
3.0Allowed / game3.2
29.7Shots / game25.8
59.5Faceoff %46.0
22.3Hits / game24.5
2−1Season record1−3
4−6Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CBJ chance · STL chance
Our model fair47.6%52.4%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CBJColumbus Blue Jackets+11048%————
STLSt. Louis Blues−11052%————
Spreadabout even
CBJColumbus Blue Jackets+0.1our margin————
STLSt. Louis Blues−0.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 5.9
Over5.9our total————
Under5.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Columbus Blue Jackets by 6 goals: <1%Columbus Blue Jackets by 5 goals: 2%Columbus Blue Jackets by 4 goals: 5%Columbus Blue Jackets by 3 goals: 10%Columbus Blue Jackets by 2 goals: 9%Columbus Blue Jackets by 1 goal: 21%St. Louis Blues by 1 goal: 23%St. Louis Blues by 2 goals: 10%St. Louis Blues by 3 goals: 11%St. Louis Blues by 4 goals: 6%St. Louis Blues by 5 goals: 2%St. Louis Blues by 6 goals: <1%
← CBJ wins bySTL wins by →
St. Louis Blues wins by 2 or more29%
St. Louis Blues wins by 3 or more19%
Columbus Blue Jackets wins by 2 or more27%
Decided by one goal44%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

5.9 expected
1 goals: 2%2 goals: 3%3 goals: 13%4 goals: 9%5 goals: 22%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 18%8 goals: 7%9 goals: 9%10 goals: 3%11 goals: 3%12 goals: 1%13 goals: 1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 4.573%
Total over 5.551%
Total over 6.540%
Total from 5 to 633%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
CBJJet Greaves G · last 5 starts: .885 save %, 2.83 GAAstarted
STLJordan Binnington G · last 5 starts: .871 save %, 3.39 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CBJ·STL
Oct 9 vs PIT
last game
Oct 8 vs SJ
0 days
days of rest
1 day
yes
back-to-back
no
2
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026–27 season · box-score averages from 3+ games
CBJ·STL
+0.01
rating (0 = average)
−0.02
3.3
goals / game
2.2
3.0
goals allowed / game
3.2
2−1
season record
1−3
2−1
home record
0−1
0−0
away record
1−2
W1
streak
L3
4−6
last 10
5−5
29.7
shots / game
25.8
59.5
faceoff %
46.0
22.3
hits / game
24.5
17.3
blocked shots / game
11.5
6.7
takeaways / game
3.0
16.3
giveaways / game
15.2

Rating Trend

CBJ · STL · 11 days
Columbus Blue JacketsSt. Louis Blues
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · STL 3−7
Jan 31at STLCBJ 5 − 3
Nov 1, 2025at CBJCBJ 3 − 2
Jan 11, 2025at STLCBJ 2 − 1
Jan 4, 2025at CBJCBJ 6 − 4
Jan 30, 2024at STLCBJ 1 − 0
Dec 8, 2023at CBJCBJ 5 − 2
Mar 11, 2023at CBJSTL 5 − 2
Oct 15, 2022at STLSTL 5 − 2
Mar 19, 2022at CBJCBJ 5 − 4
Nov 27, 2021at STLSTL 6 − 3

CBJ · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Oct 9vs PIT3 − 2W
Oct 3vs UTAH1 − 4L
Oct 1vs BUF6 − 3W
Apr 14vs WSH1 − 2L
Apr 12vs BOS2 − 3L
Apr 11at MTL5 − 2W
Apr 9at BUF0 − 5L
Apr 7at DET4 − 3W
Apr 4vs WPG1 − 2L
Apr 2at CAR1 − 5L

STL · Last 10

5−5 · streak L3
Oct 8vs SJ2 − 3L
Oct 6at CHI2 − 4L
Oct 3at COL1 − 6L
Oct 2at DAL4 − 0W
Apr 16at UTAH5 − 3W
Apr 14vs PIT7 − 5W
Apr 13vs MIN6 − 3W
Apr 11at CHI5 − 3W
Apr 9vs WPG2 − 3L
Apr 7vs COL1 − 3L