bayesRatings

Penguins at Blues

NHL · Tuesday, Apr 14 · 8:30 PM CT · Enterprise Center · Final PIT 5 – STL 7
← NHL / Apr 14

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123T
PIT3115
STL1337
Team box
PIT·STL
23
shots
31
0 of 2
power play
1 of 3
54.4
faceoff %
45.6
15
hits
20
10
blocked shots
14
6
penalty minutes
4
Top performers
PlayerTeamGASOG
Jimmy SnuggerudSTL223
Dylan HollowaySTL215
Avery HayesPIT203
Logan MaillouxSTL114
Anthony ManthaPIT113
Kevin HayesPIT022
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Arturs SilovsPIT97.778
Stuart SkinnerPIT2117.810
Jordan BinningtonSTL2318.783

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
STL +3
PIT +3
P1P2P3
largest lead: STL 2 · PIT 3lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was PIT 49%, STL 51% · Updated Apr 14

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
PIT 3.2 – 3.1 STL
Expected total
6.3
PenguinsThe matchupBlues
+104Our fair odds−104
3.2Expected goals3.1
+0.09Power rating−0.02
3.6Goals / game2.7
3.2Allowed / game3.1
28.6Shots / game25.2
48.1Faceoff %49.2
17.6Hits / game22.0
41−40Season record35−45
6−4Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
PIT chance · STL chance
Our model fair49.1%50.9%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
PITPittsburgh Penguins+10449%————
STLSt. Louis Blues−10451%————
Spreadabout even
PITPittsburgh Penguins−0.1our margin————
STLSt. Louis Blues+0.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 6.3
Over6.3our total————
Under6.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Pittsburgh Penguins by 6 goals: <1%Pittsburgh Penguins by 5 goals: 2%Pittsburgh Penguins by 4 goals: 6%Pittsburgh Penguins by 3 goals: 12%Pittsburgh Penguins by 2 goals: 10%Pittsburgh Penguins by 1 goal: 18%St. Louis Blues by 1 goal: 24%St. Louis Blues by 2 goals: 9%St. Louis Blues by 3 goals: 10%St. Louis Blues by 4 goals: 5%St. Louis Blues by 5 goals: 2%St. Louis Blues by 6 goals: <1%
← PIT wins bySTL wins by →
Pittsburgh Penguins wins by 2 or more31%
Pittsburgh Penguins wins by 3 or more21%
St. Louis Blues wins by 2 or more27%
Decided by one goal42%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,072 past NHL games.

Total range

6.3 expected
1 goals: 2%2 goals: 2%3 goals: 10%4 goals: 8%5 goals: 20%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 19%8 goals: 8%9 goals: 10%10 goals: 3%11 goals: 4%12 goals: 1%13 goals: 1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 5.558%
Total over 6.547%
Total over 7.527%
Total from 6 to 730%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,072 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
PITStuart Skinner G · last 5 starts: .889 save %, 2.83 GAAstarted
STLJordan Binnington G · last 5 starts: .904 save %, 2.02 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
PIT·STL
Apr 12 at WSH
last game
Apr 13 vs MIN
1 day
days of rest
0 days
no
back-to-back
yes
3
games in last 7 days
4
2nd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 80+ games
PIT·STL
+0.09
rating (0 = average)
−0.02
3.6
goals / game
2.7
3.2
goals allowed / game
3.1
41−40
season record
35−45
20−21
home record
19−21
21−19
away record
16−24
L2
streak
W2
6−4
last 10
6−4
28.6
shots / game
25.2
48.1
faceoff %
49.2
17.6
hits / game
22.0
14.7
blocked shots / game
13.6
4.9
takeaways / game
4.4
16.3
giveaways / game
14.6

Rating Trend

PIT · STL · 159 days
Pittsburgh PenguinsSt. Louis Blues
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · STL 2−7
Oct 27, 2025at PITPIT 6 − 3
Apr 3, 2025at STLSTL 5 − 4 OT
Mar 13, 2025at PITPIT 5 − 3
Dec 30, 2023at PITPIT 4 − 2
Oct 21, 2023at STLSTL 4 − 2
Feb 25, 2023at STLPIT 3 − 2 OT
Dec 3, 2022at PITPIT 6 − 2
Mar 17, 2022at STLPIT 3 − 2 SO
Jan 5, 2022at PITPIT 5 − 3

PIT · Last 10

6−4 · streak L2
Apr 12at WSH0 − 3L
Apr 11vs WSH3 − 6L
Apr 9at NJ5 − 2W
Apr 5vs FLA5 − 2W
Apr 4vs FLA9 − 4W
Apr 2at TB3 − 6L
Mar 31vs DET5 − 1W
Mar 30at NYI8 − 3W
Mar 28vs DAL3 − 6L
Mar 26at OTT4 − 3W

STL · Last 10

6−4 · streak W2
Apr 13vs MIN6 − 3W
Apr 11at CHI5 − 3W
Apr 9vs WPG2 − 3L
Apr 7vs COL1 − 3L
Apr 5at COL3 − 2W
Apr 3at ANA6 − 2W
Apr 1at LA1 − 2L
Mar 30at SJ4 − 5L
Mar 28vs TOR5 − 1W
Mar 26vs SJ2 − 1W