bayesRatings

Penguins at Capitals

NHL · Sunday, Apr 12 · 2:00 PM CT · Capital One Arena · Final PIT 0 – WSH 3
← NHL / Apr 12

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123T
PIT0000
WSH0123
Team box
PIT·WSH
24
shots
27
0 of 2
power play
0 of 1
48.1
faceoff %
51.9
10
hits
18
13
blocked shots
15
2
penalty minutes
4
Top performers
PlayerTeamGASOG
Connor McMichaelWSH212
Martin FehervaryWSH020
Trevor van RiemsdykWSH105
Alex OvechkinWSH013
Pierre-Luc DuboisWSH012
Ryan LeonardWSH012
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Stuart SkinnerPIT2624.923
Logan ThompsonWSH24241.000

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
WSH +3
PIT +3
P1P2P3
largest lead: WSH 3 · PIT 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was PIT 47%, WSH 53% · Updated Apr 12

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
WSH 3.5 – 3.5 PIT
Expected total
6.9
PenguinsThe matchupCapitals
+113Our fair odds−113
3.5Expected goals3.5
+0.10Power rating+0.08
3.6Goals / game3.2
3.2Allowed / game3.0
28.7Shots / game28.1
48.1Faceoff %49.2
17.7Hits / game19.8
41−39Season record41−39
6−4Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
PIT chance · WSH chance
Our model fair46.9%53.1%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
PITPittsburgh Penguins+11347%————
WSHWashington Capitals−11353%————
Spreadabout even
PITPittsburgh PenguinsPKour margin————
WSHWashington CapitalsPKour margin————
Totalwe expect 6.9
Over6.9our total————
Under6.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Pittsburgh Penguins by 6 goals: 1%Pittsburgh Penguins by 5 goals: 2%Pittsburgh Penguins by 4 goals: 6%Pittsburgh Penguins by 3 goals: 12%Pittsburgh Penguins by 2 goals: 10%Pittsburgh Penguins by 1 goal: 16%Washington Capitals by 1 goal: 24%Washington Capitals by 2 goals: 9%Washington Capitals by 3 goals: 11%Washington Capitals by 4 goals: 6%Washington Capitals by 5 goals: 2%Washington Capitals by 6 goals: <1%
← PIT wins byWSH wins by →
Washington Capitals wins by 2 or more29%
Washington Capitals wins by 3 or more20%
Pittsburgh Penguins wins by 2 or more31%
Decided by one goal40%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

6.9 expected
1 goals: 1%2 goals: 1%3 goals: 7%4 goals: 6%5 goals: 18%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 20%8 goals: 9%9 goals: 13%10 goals: 5%11 goals: 5%12 goals: 2%13 goals: 2%14 goals: <1%15 goals: <1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 5.567%
Total over 6.556%
Total over 7.536%
Total from 6 to 730%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
PITStuart Skinner G · last 5 starts: .884 save %, 2.97 GAAstarted
WSHLogan Thompson G · last 5 starts: .880 save %, 3.03 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
PIT·WSH
Apr 11 vs WSH
last game
Apr 11 at PIT
0 days
days of rest
0 days
yes
back-to-back
yes
3
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 80+ games
PIT·WSH
+0.10
rating (0 = average)
+0.08
3.6
goals / game
3.2
3.2
goals allowed / game
3.0
41−39
season record
41−39
20−21
home record
24−16
21−18
away record
17−23
L1
streak
W2
6−4
last 10
6−4
28.7
shots / game
28.1
48.1
faceoff %
49.2
17.7
hits / game
19.8
14.8
blocked shots / game
16.0
4.9
takeaways / game
4.6
16.3
giveaways / game
15.3

Rating Trend

PIT · WSH · 157 days
Pittsburgh PenguinsWashington Capitals
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · WSH 5−5
Apr 11at PITWSH 6 − 3
Nov 6, 2025at PITPIT 5 − 3
Apr 17, 2025at PITPIT 5 − 2
Feb 22, 2025at PITWSH 8 − 3
Jan 18, 2025at WSHWSH 4 − 1
Nov 8, 2024at WSHPIT 4 − 2
Apr 4, 2024at WSHPIT 4 − 1
Mar 7, 2024at PITWSH 6 − 0
Jan 2, 2024at PITWSH 4 − 3
Oct 13, 2023at WSHPIT 4 − 0

PIT · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Apr 11vs WSH3 − 6L
Apr 9at NJ5 − 2W
Apr 5vs FLA5 − 2W
Apr 4vs FLA9 − 4W
Apr 2at TB3 − 6L
Mar 31vs DET5 − 1W
Mar 30at NYI8 − 3W
Mar 28vs DAL3 − 6L
Mar 26at OTT4 − 3W
Mar 24vs COL2 − 6L

WSH · Last 10

6−4 · streak W2
Apr 11at PIT6 − 3W
Apr 8at TOR4 − 0W
Apr 5at NYR1 − 8L
Apr 4vs BUF6 − 2W
Apr 2at NJ3 − 7L
Mar 31vs PHI6 − 4W
Mar 28at VGK5 − 4W
Mar 26at UTAH7 − 4W
Mar 24at STL0 − 3L
Mar 22vs COL2 − 3L