bayesRatings

Capitals at Penguins

NHL · Thursday, Nov 6 · 6:30 PM CT · PPG Paints Arena · Final WSH 3 – PIT 5
← NHL / Nov 6, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123T
WSH0303
PIT2125
Team box
WSH·PIT
30
shots
31
0 of 3
power play
3 of 5
51.7
faceoff %
48.3
27
hits
10
15
blocked shots
16
10
penalty minutes
6
Top performers
PlayerTeamGASOG
Bryan RustPIT125
Dylan StromeWSH125
Sidney CrosbyPIT206
Alex OvechkinWSH022
Ben KindelPIT020
Connor DewarPIT104
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Charlie LindgrenWSH3026.867
Arturs SilovsPIT3027.900

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
PIT +3
WSH +3
P1P2P3
largest lead: PIT 3 · WSH 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was WSH 47%, PIT 53% · Updated Nov 6, 2025

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
PIT 3.1 – 3.1 WSH
Expected total
6.3
CapitalsThe matchupPenguins
+114Our fair odds−114
3.1Expected goals3.1
+0.12Power rating−0.01
2.8Goals / game3.5
2.3Allowed / game2.9
29.2Shots / game27.4
47.6Faceoff %50.2
22.2Hits / game16.2
7−6Season record8−6
5−5Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
WSH chance · PIT chance
Our model fair46.7%53.3%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
WSHWashington Capitals+11447%————
PITPittsburgh Penguins−11453%————
Spreadabout even
WSHWashington CapitalsPKour margin————
PITPittsburgh PenguinsPKour margin————
Totalwe expect 6.3
Over6.3our total————
Under6.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Washington Capitals by 6 goals: <1%Washington Capitals by 5 goals: 2%Washington Capitals by 4 goals: 6%Washington Capitals by 3 goals: 12%Washington Capitals by 2 goals: 10%Washington Capitals by 1 goal: 17%Pittsburgh Penguins by 1 goal: 25%Pittsburgh Penguins by 2 goals: 9%Pittsburgh Penguins by 3 goals: 11%Pittsburgh Penguins by 4 goals: 5%Pittsburgh Penguins by 5 goals: 2%Pittsburgh Penguins by 6 goals: <1%
← WSH wins byPIT wins by →
Pittsburgh Penguins wins by 2 or more28%
Pittsburgh Penguins wins by 3 or more18%
Washington Capitals wins by 2 or more30%
Decided by one goal42%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

6.3 expected
1 goals: 2%2 goals: 2%3 goals: 10%4 goals: 8%5 goals: 20%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 19%8 goals: 8%9 goals: 10%10 goals: 3%11 goals: 4%12 goals: 1%13 goals: 1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 5.558%
Total over 6.547%
Total over 7.527%
Total from 6 to 730%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
WSHCharlie Lindgren G · last 5 starts: .900 save %, 2.98 GAAstarted
PITArturs Silovs G · last 5 starts: .921 save %, 2.52 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
WSH·PIT
Nov 5, 2025 vs STL
last game
Nov 3, 2025 at TOR
0 days
days of rest
2 days
yes
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 13+ games
WSH·PIT
+0.12
rating (0 = average)
−0.01
2.8
goals / game
3.5
2.3
goals allowed / game
2.9
7−6
season record
8−6
4−4
home record
3−2
3−2
away record
5−4
W1
streak
L2
5−5
last 10
6−4
29.2
shots / game
27.4
47.6
faceoff %
50.2
22.2
hits / game
16.2
12.6
blocked shots / game
16.4
4.3
takeaways / game
4.4
16.8
giveaways / game
17.8

Rating Trend

WSH · PIT · 24 days
Washington CapitalsPittsburgh Penguins
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · PIT 5−5
Apr 17, 2025at PITPIT 5 − 2
Feb 22, 2025at PITWSH 8 − 3
Jan 18, 2025at WSHWSH 4 − 1
Nov 8, 2024at WSHPIT 4 − 2
Apr 4, 2024at WSHPIT 4 − 1
Mar 7, 2024at PITWSH 6 − 0
Jan 2, 2024at PITWSH 4 − 3
Oct 13, 2023at WSHPIT 4 − 0
Mar 25, 2023at PITPIT 4 − 3
Jan 26, 2023at WSHWSH 3 − 2 SO

WSH · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Nov 5, 2025vs STL6 − 1W
Nov 1, 2025at BUF3 − 4L
Oct 31, 2025vs NYI1 − 3L
Oct 28, 2025at DAL0 − 1L
Oct 25, 2025vs OTT1 − 7L
Oct 24, 2025at CBJ5 − 1W
Oct 21, 2025vs SEA4 − 1W
Oct 19, 2025vs VAN3 − 4L
Oct 17, 2025vs MIN5 − 1W
Oct 14, 2025vs TB3 − 2W

PIT · Last 10

6−4 · streak L2
Nov 3, 2025at TOR3 − 4L
Nov 1, 2025at WPG2 − 5L
Oct 30, 2025at MIN4 − 1W
Oct 28, 2025at PHI2 − 3L
Oct 27, 2025vs STL6 − 3W
Oct 25, 2025vs CBJ4 − 5L
Oct 23, 2025at FLA5 − 3W
Oct 21, 2025vs VAN5 − 1W
Oct 18, 2025at SJ3 − 0W
Oct 16, 2025at LA4 − 2W