bayesRatings

Capitals at Maple Leafs

NHL · Wednesday, Apr 8 · 6:30 PM CT · Scotiabank Arena · Final WSH 4 – TOR 0
← NHL / Apr 8

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123T
WSH1214
TOR0000
Team box
WSH·TOR
20
shots
22
0 of 2
power play
0 of 3
34.5
faceoff %
65.5
16
hits
13
18
blocked shots
12
6
penalty minutes
4
Top performers
PlayerTeamGASOG
Martin FehervaryWSH112
Dylan StromeWSH111
Ryan LeonardWSH104
Cole HutsonWSH102
Aliaksei ProtasWSH011
Justin SourdifWSH011
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Logan ThompsonWSH22221.000
Joseph WollTOR1714.824
Anthony StolarzTOR221.000

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
TOR +4
WSH +4
P1P2P3
largest lead: TOR 0 · WSH 4lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was WSH 50%, TOR 50% · Updated Apr 8

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
WSH 3.5 – 3.2 TOR
Expected total
6.7
CapitalsThe matchupMaple Leafs
−101Our fair odds+101
3.5Expected goals3.2
+0.08Power rating−0.08
3.2Goals / game3.1
3.1Allowed / game3.6
28.2Shots / game26.7
49.3Faceoff %54.5
19.9Hits / game22.8
39−39Season record32−45
6−4Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
WSH chance · TOR chance
Our model fair50.2%49.8%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
WSHWashington Capitals−10150%————
TORToronto Maple Leafs+10150%————
Spreadabout even
WSHWashington Capitals−0.2our margin————
TORToronto Maple Leafs+0.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 6.7
Over6.7our total————
Under6.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Washington Capitals by 6 goals: 1%Washington Capitals by 5 goals: 3%Washington Capitals by 4 goals: 7%Washington Capitals by 3 goals: 13%Washington Capitals by 2 goals: 10%Washington Capitals by 1 goal: 17%Toronto Maple Leafs by 1 goal: 23%Toronto Maple Leafs by 2 goals: 9%Toronto Maple Leafs by 3 goals: 10%Toronto Maple Leafs by 4 goals: 5%Toronto Maple Leafs by 5 goals: 2%Toronto Maple Leafs by 6 goals: <1%
← WSH wins byTOR wins by →
Washington Capitals wins by 2 or more33%
Washington Capitals wins by 3 or more23%
Toronto Maple Leafs wins by 2 or more26%
Decided by one goal41%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

6.7 expected
1 goals: 1%2 goals: 2%3 goals: 8%4 goals: 7%5 goals: 19%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 20%8 goals: 9%9 goals: 12%10 goals: 4%11 goals: 5%12 goals: 1%13 goals: 1%14 goals: <1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 5.564%
Total over 6.553%
Total over 7.533%
Total from 6 to 730%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
WSHLogan Thompson G · last 5 starts: .876 save %, 3.96 GAAstarted
TORJoseph Woll G · last 5 starts: .881 save %, 4.76 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
WSH·TOR
Apr 5 at NYR
last game
Apr 4 at LA
2 days
days of rest
3 days
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
2
2nd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 77+ games
WSH·TOR
+0.08
rating (0 = average)
−0.08
3.2
goals / game
3.1
3.1
goals allowed / game
3.6
39−39
season record
32−45
24−16
home record
18−20
15−23
away record
14−25
L1
streak
L2
6−4
last 10
4−6
28.2
shots / game
26.7
49.3
faceoff %
54.5
19.9
hits / game
22.8
16.0
blocked shots / game
15.3
4.6
takeaways / game
4.7
15.3
giveaways / game
16.3

Rating Trend

WSH · TOR · 154 days
Washington CapitalsToronto Maple Leafs
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · TOR 5−5
Dec 18, 2025at WSHWSH 4 − 0
Nov 28, 2025at WSHWSH 4 − 2
Dec 28, 2024at TORWSH 5 − 2
Dec 6, 2024at TORWSH 3 − 1
Nov 13, 2024at WSHTOR 4 − 3 OT
Mar 28, 2024at TORTOR 5 − 1
Mar 20, 2024at WSHTOR 7 − 3
Oct 24, 2023at WSHTOR 4 − 1
Jan 29, 2023at TORTOR 5 − 1
Dec 17, 2022at WSHWSH 5 − 2

WSH · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Apr 5at NYR1 − 8L
Apr 4vs BUF6 − 2W
Apr 2at NJ3 − 7L
Mar 31vs PHI6 − 4W
Mar 28at VGK5 − 4W
Mar 26at UTAH7 − 4W
Mar 24at STL0 − 3L
Mar 22vs COL2 − 3L
Mar 20vs NJ2 − 1W
Mar 18vs OTT4 − 1W

TOR · Last 10

4−6 · streak L2
Apr 4at LA6 − 7L
Apr 2at SJ1 − 4L
Mar 30at ANA5 − 4W
Mar 28at STL1 − 5L
Mar 25vs NYR4 − 3W
Mar 24at BOS4 − 2W
Mar 21at OTT2 − 5L
Mar 20vs CAR3 − 4L
Mar 17vs NYI1 − 3L
Mar 15at MIN4 − 2W