bayesRatings

Capitals at Penguins

NHL · Saturday, Apr 11 · 2:00 PM CT · PPG Paints Arena · Final WSH 6 – PIT 3
← NHL / Apr 11

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123T
WSH0426
PIT0303
Team box
WSH·PIT
32
shots
11
1 of 2
power play
0 of 0
57.4
faceoff %
42.6
17
hits
21
15
blocked shots
16
0
penalty minutes
4
Top performers
PlayerTeamGASOG
Ilya ProtasWSH123
Ryan LeonardWSH203
Tom WilsonWSH114
Aliaksei ProtasWSH112
Cole HutsonWSH022
Ryan SheaPIT020
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Logan ThompsonWSH118.727
Arturs SilovsPIT3126.839

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
PIT +3
WSH +3
P1P2P3
largest lead: PIT 0 · WSH 3lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was WSH 46%, PIT 54% · Updated Apr 11

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
PIT 3.6 – 3.4 WSH
Expected total
7.0
CapitalsThe matchupPenguins
+119Our fair odds−119
3.4Expected goals3.6
+0.08Power rating+0.10
3.2Goals / game3.6
3.0Allowed / game3.2
28.1Shots / game28.9
49.1Faceoff %48.2
19.8Hits / game17.7
40−39Season record41−38
6−4Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
WSH chance · PIT chance
Our model fair45.7%54.3%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
WSHWashington Capitals+11946%————
PITPittsburgh Penguins−11954%————
Spreadabout even
WSHWashington Capitals+0.2our margin————
PITPittsburgh Penguins−0.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 7.0
Over7.0our total————
Under7.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Washington Capitals by 6 goals: <1%Washington Capitals by 5 goals: 2%Washington Capitals by 4 goals: 6%Washington Capitals by 3 goals: 11%Washington Capitals by 2 goals: 9%Washington Capitals by 1 goal: 18%Pittsburgh Penguins by 1 goal: 22%Pittsburgh Penguins by 2 goals: 10%Pittsburgh Penguins by 3 goals: 12%Pittsburgh Penguins by 4 goals: 7%Pittsburgh Penguins by 5 goals: 3%Pittsburgh Penguins by 6 goals: 1%
← WSH wins byPIT wins by →
Pittsburgh Penguins wins by 2 or more32%
Pittsburgh Penguins wins by 3 or more22%
Washington Capitals wins by 2 or more28%
Decided by one goal40%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

7.0 expected
1 goals: 1%2 goals: 1%3 goals: 7%4 goals: 6%5 goals: 17%6 goals: 10%7 goals: 20%8 goals: 9%9 goals: 13%10 goals: 5%11 goals: 6%12 goals: 2%13 goals: 2%14 goals: <1%15 goals: <1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 6.557%
Total over 7.538%
Total over 8.529%
Total from 7 to 829%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
WSHLogan Thompson G · last 5 starts: .888 save %, 3.17 GAAstarted
PITArturs Silovs G · last 5 starts: .863 save %, 3.54 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
WSH·PIT
Apr 8 at TOR
last game
Apr 9 at NJ
2 days
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
3
3rd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 79+ games
WSH·PIT
+0.08
rating (0 = average)
+0.10
3.2
goals / game
3.6
3.0
goals allowed / game
3.2
40−39
season record
41−38
24−16
home record
20−20
16−23
away record
21−18
W1
streak
W3
6−4
last 10
6−4
28.1
shots / game
28.9
49.1
faceoff %
48.2
19.8
hits / game
17.7
16.0
blocked shots / game
14.7
4.6
takeaways / game
4.9
15.3
giveaways / game
16.3

Rating Trend

WSH · PIT · 156 days
Washington CapitalsPittsburgh Penguins
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · PIT 6−4
Nov 6, 2025at PITPIT 5 − 3
Apr 17, 2025at PITPIT 5 − 2
Feb 22, 2025at PITWSH 8 − 3
Jan 18, 2025at WSHWSH 4 − 1
Nov 8, 2024at WSHPIT 4 − 2
Apr 4, 2024at WSHPIT 4 − 1
Mar 7, 2024at PITWSH 6 − 0
Jan 2, 2024at PITWSH 4 − 3
Oct 13, 2023at WSHPIT 4 − 0
Mar 25, 2023at PITPIT 4 − 3

WSH · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Apr 8at TOR4 − 0W
Apr 5at NYR1 − 8L
Apr 4vs BUF6 − 2W
Apr 2at NJ3 − 7L
Mar 31vs PHI6 − 4W
Mar 28at VGK5 − 4W
Mar 26at UTAH7 − 4W
Mar 24at STL0 − 3L
Mar 22vs COL2 − 3L
Mar 20vs NJ2 − 1W

PIT · Last 10

6−4 · streak W3
Apr 9at NJ5 − 2W
Apr 5vs FLA5 − 2W
Apr 4vs FLA9 − 4W
Apr 2at TB3 − 6L
Mar 31vs DET5 − 1W
Mar 30at NYI8 − 3W
Mar 28vs DAL3 − 6L
Mar 26at OTT4 − 3W
Mar 24vs COL2 − 6L
Mar 22vs CAR1 − 5L