bayesRatings

Capitals at Blue Jackets

NHL · Tuesday, Apr 14 · 6:00 PM CT · Nationwide Arena · Final WSH 2 – CBJ 1

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123T
WSH0112
CBJ0101
Team box
WSH·CBJ
21
shots
28
1 of 3
power play
0 of 1
53.3
faceoff %
46.7
14
hits
3
11
blocked shots
16
2
penalty minutes
6
Top performers
Goalies
GoalieTeamSASVSV%
Clay StevensonWSH2827.964
Jet GreavesCBJ2119.905

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CBJ +3
WSH +3
P1P2P3
largest lead: CBJ 1 · WSH 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was WSH 50%, CBJ 50% · Updated Apr 14

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
CBJ 3.1 – 3.1 WSH
Expected total
6.2
CapitalsThe matchupBlue Jackets
+101Our fair odds−101
3.1Expected goals3.1
+0.15Power rating+0.01
3.2Goals / game3.1
3.0Allowed / game3.1
28.1Shots / game29.4
49.2Faceoff %50.6
19.8Hits / game19.4
42−39Season record40−41
7−3Last 102−8

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
WSH chance · CBJ chance
Our model fair49.8%50.2%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
WSHWashington Capitals+10150%————
CBJColumbus Blue Jackets−10150%————
Spreadabout even
WSHWashington CapitalsPKour margin————
CBJColumbus Blue JacketsPKour margin————
Totalwe expect 6.2
Over6.2our total————
Under6.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Washington Capitals by 6 goals: <1%Washington Capitals by 5 goals: 2%Washington Capitals by 4 goals: 6%Washington Capitals by 3 goals: 11%Washington Capitals by 2 goals: 10%Washington Capitals by 1 goal: 21%Columbus Blue Jackets by 1 goal: 21%Columbus Blue Jackets by 2 goals: 10%Columbus Blue Jackets by 3 goals: 11%Columbus Blue Jackets by 4 goals: 6%Columbus Blue Jackets by 5 goals: 2%Columbus Blue Jackets by 6 goals: <1%
← WSH wins byCBJ wins by →
Columbus Blue Jackets wins by 2 or more29%
Columbus Blue Jackets wins by 3 or more19%
Washington Capitals wins by 2 or more29%
Decided by one goal42%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Total range

6.2 expected
1 goals: 2%2 goals: 2%3 goals: 11%4 goals: 8%5 goals: 21%6 goals: 11%7 goals: 19%8 goals: 8%9 goals: 10%10 goals: 3%11 goals: 3%12 goals: 1%13 goals: 1%
Total goals, both teams
Total over 5.556%
Total over 6.545%
Total over 7.526%
Total from 6 to 730%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected goals, with ties after regulation settled as one-goal games, matched to 7,066 past NHL games.

Starting Goalies

from the box score
WSHClay Stevenson G · last 4 starts: .892 save %, 3.00 GAAstarted
CBJJet Greaves G · last 5 starts: .892 save %, 2.81 GAAstarted

Starting goalies are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
WSH·CBJ
Apr 12 vs PIT
last game
Apr 12 vs BOS
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
3
games in last 7 days
4
road after a home game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 81+ games
WSH·CBJ
+0.15
rating (0 = average)
+0.01
3.2
goals / game
3.1
3.0
goals allowed / game
3.1
42−39
season record
40−41
25−16
home record
20−20
17−23
away record
20−21
W3
streak
L1
7−3
last 10
2−8
28.1
shots / game
29.4
49.2
faceoff %
50.6
19.8
hits / game
19.4
16.0
blocked shots / game
14.6
4.6
takeaways / game
5.0
15.3
giveaways / game
15.4

Rating Trend

WSH · CBJ · 159 days
Washington CapitalsColumbus Blue Jackets
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CBJ 2−8
Dec 7, 2025at WSHWSH 2 − 0
Nov 24, 2025at WSHWSH 5 − 1
Oct 24, 2025at CBJWSH 5 − 1
Apr 13, 2025at WSHCBJ 4 − 1
Apr 12, 2025at CBJCBJ 7 − 0
Dec 12, 2024at CBJWSH 2 − 1 OT
Nov 2, 2024at WSHWSH 7 − 2
Dec 21, 2023at CBJWSH 3 − 2 OT
Nov 18, 2023at WSHWSH 4 − 3
Nov 4, 2023at WSHWSH 2 − 1

WSH · Last 10

7−3 · streak W3
Apr 12vs PIT3 − 0W
Apr 11at PIT6 − 3W
Apr 8at TOR4 − 0W
Apr 5at NYR1 − 8L
Apr 4vs BUF6 − 2W
Apr 2at NJ3 − 7L
Mar 31vs PHI6 − 4W
Mar 28at VGK5 − 4W
Mar 26at UTAH7 − 4W
Mar 24at STL0 − 3L

CBJ · Last 10

2−8 · streak L1
Apr 12vs BOS2 − 3L
Apr 11at MTL5 − 2W
Apr 9at BUF0 − 5L
Apr 7at DET4 − 3W
Apr 4vs WPG1 − 2L
Apr 2at CAR1 − 5L
Mar 31vs CAR2 − 5L
Mar 29vs BOS3 − 4L
Mar 28vs SJ2 − 3L
Mar 26at MTL1 − 2L