bayesRatings

Athletics at Braves

MLB · Monday, Mar 30 · 6:15 PM CT · Truist Park · Final ATH 0 – ATL 4
← MLB / Mar 30

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
ATH000000000070
ATL300000014102
Team box
ATH·ATL
7
hits
10
0
home runs
0
1
walks
5
7
strikeouts
4
141
pitches thrown
122
0
errors
2
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Mauricio DubonATL3-4003
Brent RookerATH2-4000
Tyler SoderstromATH2-4000
Matt OlsonATL1-3101
Ozzie AlbiesATL2-4000
Ronald Acuna Jr.ATL2-2100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Jacob Lopez (L)ATH4.06350
Bryce Elder (W)ATL6.05015

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ATL +4
ATH +4
123456789
largest lead: ATL 4 · ATH 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ATH 45%, ATL 55% · Updated Mar 30

Expected margin
ATL by 0.6
Expected score
ATL 4.8 – 4.2 ATH
Expected total
9.1
AthleticsThe matchupBraves
+122Our fair odds−122
4.2Expected runs4.8
−0.09Power rating+0.02
3.7Runs / game4.3
5.3Allowed / game2.0
5.3Hits / game9.0
1.33Home runs / game1.67
2.7Walks drawn / game2.7
0−3Season record2−1
3−7Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ATH chance · ATL chance
Our model fair45.1%54.9%
Kalshi47.7%57.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:15 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ATHAthletics+12245%+10947.7%———
ATLAtlanta Braves−12255%−13757.7%———
SpreadATL by 0.6
ATHAthletics+0.6our margin————
ATLAtlanta Braves−0.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.1
Over9.1our total————
Under9.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Atlanta Braves by 0.6 expected
Athletics by 14 runs: <1%Athletics by 13 runs: <1%Athletics by 12 runs: <1%Athletics by 11 runs: <1%Athletics by 10 runs: 1%Athletics by 9 runs: 1%Athletics by 8 runs: 1%Athletics by 7 runs: 2%Athletics by 6 runs: 3%Athletics by 5 runs: 4%Athletics by 4 runs: 5%Athletics by 3 runs: 6%Athletics by 2 runs: 9%Athletics by 1 run: 14%Atlanta Braves by 1 run: 14%Atlanta Braves by 2 runs: 10%Atlanta Braves by 3 runs: 8%Atlanta Braves by 4 runs: 6%Atlanta Braves by 5 runs: 5%Atlanta Braves by 6 runs: 4%Atlanta Braves by 7 runs: 3%Atlanta Braves by 8 runs: 2%Atlanta Braves by 9 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 10 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 11 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 12 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 13 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 14 runs: <1%
← ATH wins byATL wins by →
Atlanta Braves wins by 2 or more41%
Atlanta Braves wins by 3 or more31%
Athletics wins by 2 or more31%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.1 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.559%
Total over 9.541%
Total over 11.526%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
ATHJacob Lopez SP · last 3 starts: 15.0 IP, 6.60 ERA, 19 Kstarted
ATLBryce Elder SP · last 3 starts: 18.1 IP, 4.91 ERA, 20 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ATH·ATL
Mar 29 at TOR
last game
Mar 29 vs KC
0 days
days of rest
0 days
3
games in last 7 days
3
4th straight road game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 3+ games
ATH·ATL
−0.09
rating (0 = average)
+0.02
3.7
runs / game
4.3
5.3
runs allowed / game
2.0
0−3
season record
2−1
0−0
home record
2−1
0−3
away record
0−0
L3
streak
L1
3−7
last 10
6−4
5.3
hits / game
9.0
1.33
home runs / game
1.67
2.7
walks drawn / game
2.7
16.7
batter strikeouts / game
7.7
5.7
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.0
0.00
errors / game
0.33

Rating Trend

ATH · ATL · 5 days
AthleticsAtlanta Braves
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · ATL 5−5
Jul 10, 2025at ATHATH 5 − 4
Jul 9, 2025at ATHATL 9 − 2
Jul 8, 2025at ATHATH 10 − 1
Jun 2, 2024at ATLATL 3 − 1
Jun 1, 2024at ATLATH 11 − 9
May 31, 2024at ATLATL 4 − 2
May 31, 2023at ATHATL 4 − 2
May 30, 2023at ATHATH 2 − 1
May 29, 2023at ATHATH 7 − 2
Sep 7, 2022at ATHATL 7 − 3

ATH · Last 10

3−7 · streak L5
Mar 29at TOR2 − 5L
Mar 28at TOR7 − 8L
Mar 27at TOR2 − 3L
Sep 28, 2025vs KC2 − 9L
Sep 27, 2025vs KC2 − 4L
Sep 26, 2025vs KC4 − 3W
Sep 25, 2025vs HOU5 − 11L
Sep 24, 2025vs HOU6 − 0W
Sep 23, 2025vs HOU5 − 1W
Sep 21, 2025at PIT0 − 11L

ATL · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Mar 29vs KC1 − 4L
Mar 28vs KC6 − 2W
Mar 27vs KC6 − 0W
Sep 28, 2025vs PIT4 − 1W
Sep 27, 2025vs PIT1 − 3L
Sep 26, 2025vs PIT3 − 9L
Sep 24, 2025vs WSH3 − 4L
Sep 23, 2025vs WSH3 − 2W
Sep 22, 2025vs WSH11 − 5W
Sep 21, 2025at DET6 − 2W