bayesRatings

Tigers at Diamondbacks

MLB · Monday, Mar 30 · 9:10 PM CT · Chase Field · Final DET 6 – ARI 9
← MLB / Mar 30

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
DET0000006006102
ARI230030109110
Team box
DET·ARI
10
hits
11
0
home runs
2
4
walks
6
14
strikeouts
3
168
pitches thrown
174
2
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Corbin CarrollARI2-4214
Ildemaro VargasARI2-4211
Colt KeithDET2-5102
Gabriel MorenoARI2-4101
Jordan LawlarARI2-3101
Riley GreeneDET2-5101
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Justin Verlander (L)DET3.26521
Michael Soroka (W)ARI5.040110
Paul Sewald (S)ARI1.00001

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ARI +8
DET +8
123456789
largest lead: ARI 8 · DET 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was DET 50%, ARI 50% · Updated Mar 30

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
DET 4.9 – 4.8 ARI
Expected total
9.7
TigersThe matchupDiamondbacks
+101Our fair odds−101
4.9Expected runs4.8
+0.08Power rating+0.00
4.3Runs / game2.7
2.3Allowed / game5.3
6.7Hits / game6.3
0.33Home runs / game0.67
5.3Walks drawn / game1.7
2−1Season record0−3
5−5Last 102−8

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
DET chance · ARI chance
Our model fair49.7%50.3%
Kalshi47.7%56.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 9:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
DETDetroit Tigers+10150%+10947.7%———
ARIArizona Diamondbacks−10150%−13156.7%———
Spreadabout even
DETDetroit Tigers−0.2our margin————
ARIArizona Diamondbacks+0.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.7
Over9.7our total————
Under9.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Detroit Tigers by 14 runs: <1%Detroit Tigers by 13 runs: <1%Detroit Tigers by 12 runs: <1%Detroit Tigers by 11 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 10 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 9 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 8 runs: 2%Detroit Tigers by 7 runs: 3%Detroit Tigers by 6 runs: 3%Detroit Tigers by 5 runs: 5%Detroit Tigers by 4 runs: 6%Detroit Tigers by 3 runs: 7%Detroit Tigers by 2 runs: 9%Detroit Tigers by 1 run: 11%Arizona Diamondbacks by 1 run: 15%Arizona Diamondbacks by 2 runs: 9%Arizona Diamondbacks by 3 runs: 7%Arizona Diamondbacks by 4 runs: 5%Arizona Diamondbacks by 5 runs: 4%Arizona Diamondbacks by 6 runs: 3%Arizona Diamondbacks by 7 runs: 2%Arizona Diamondbacks by 8 runs: 2%Arizona Diamondbacks by 9 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 10 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 11 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 12 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 13 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 14 runs: <1%
← DET wins byARI wins by →
Detroit Tigers wins by 2 or more39%
Detroit Tigers wins by 3 or more29%
Arizona Diamondbacks wins by 2 or more35%
Decided by one run26%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.7 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 6%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.563%
Total over 9.546%
Total over 11.531%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
DETJustin Verlander SP · last 3 starts: 17.1 IP, 3.12 ERA, 13 Kstarted
ARIMichael Soroka SP · last 3 starts: 11.0 IP, 3.27 ERA, 13 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
DET·ARI
Mar 28 at SD
last game
Mar 28 at LAD
1 day
days of rest
1 day
3
games in last 7 days
3
4th straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 3+ games
DET·ARI
+0.08
rating (0 = average)
+0.00
4.3
runs / game
2.7
2.3
runs allowed / game
5.3
2−1
season record
0−3
0−0
home record
0−0
2−1
away record
0−3
L1
streak
L3
5−5
last 10
2−8
6.7
hits / game
6.3
0.33
home runs / game
0.67
5.3
walks drawn / game
1.7
10.7
batter strikeouts / game
9.0
8.3
pitcher strikeouts / game
5.0
1.00
errors / game
0.67

Rating Trend

DET · ARI · 5 days
Detroit TigersArizona Diamondbacks
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · ARI 5−5
Jul 30, 2025at DETDET 7 − 2
Jul 29, 2025at DETDET 12 − 2
Jul 28, 2025at DETDET 5 − 1
May 19, 2024at ARIARI 6 − 4
May 18, 2024at ARIDET 8 − 3
May 17, 2024at ARIDET 13 − 0
Jun 11, 2023at DETARI 7 − 5
Jun 10, 2023at DETARI 5 − 0
Jun 9, 2023at DETARI 11 − 6
Jun 26, 2022at ARIARI 11 − 7

DET · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Mar 28at SD0 − 3L
Mar 27at SD5 − 2W
Mar 26at SD8 − 2W
Oct 10, 2025at SEA2 − 3L
Oct 8, 2025vs SEA9 − 3W
Oct 7, 2025vs SEA4 − 8L
Oct 5, 2025at SEA2 − 3L
Oct 4, 2025at SEA3 − 2W
Oct 2, 2025at CLE6 − 3W
Oct 1, 2025at CLE1 − 6L

ARI · Last 10

2−8 · streak L8
Mar 28at LAD2 − 3L
Mar 27at LAD4 − 5L
Mar 26at LAD2 − 8L
Sep 28, 2025at SD4 − 12L
Sep 27, 2025at SD1 − 5L
Sep 26, 2025at SD4 − 7L
Sep 25, 2025vs LAD0 − 8L
Sep 24, 2025vs LAD4 − 5L
Sep 23, 2025vs LAD5 − 4W
Sep 21, 2025vs PHI9 − 2W