bayesRatings

Twins at Royals

MLB · Monday, Mar 30 · 3:10 PM CT · Kauffman Stadium · Final MIN 1 – KC 3
← MLB / Mar 30

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
MIN010000000140
KC02000010370
Team box
MIN·KC
4
hits
7
1
home runs
2
3
walks
2
6
strikeouts
7
133
pitches thrown
107
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Kyle IsbelKC2-3112
Isaac CollinsKC1-3111
Matt WallnerMIN1-4111
Maikel GarciaKC2-4000
Salvador PerezKC1-4000
Jonathan IndiaKC1-3100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Simeon Woods Richardson (L)MIN5.05212
Kris Bubic (W)KC6.02134
John Schreiber (S)KC1.01000

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
KC +3
MIN +3
123456789
largest lead: KC 2 · MIN 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIN 44%, KC 56% · Updated Mar 30

Expected margin
KC by 0.7
Expected score
KC 4.3 – 3.6 MIN
Expected total
8.0
TwinsThe matchupRoyals
+129Our fair odds−129
3.6Expected runs4.3
−0.13Power rating+0.03
3.7Runs / game2.0
3.7Allowed / game4.3
7.0Hits / game5.7
0.67Home runs / game0.67
4.3Walks drawn / game3.0
1−2Season record1−2
5−5Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIN chance · KC chance
Our model fair43.7%56.3%
Kalshi42.7%62.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 3:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MINMinnesota Twins+12944%+13442.7%———
KCKansas City Royals−12956%−16862.7%———
SpreadKC by 0.7
MINMinnesota Twins+0.7our margin————
KCKansas City Royals−0.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.0
Over8.0our total————
Under8.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Kansas City Royals by 0.7 expected
Minnesota Twins by 13 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 12 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 11 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 10 runs: <1%Minnesota Twins by 9 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 8 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 7 runs: 1%Minnesota Twins by 6 runs: 2%Minnesota Twins by 5 runs: 3%Minnesota Twins by 4 runs: 4%Minnesota Twins by 3 runs: 6%Minnesota Twins by 2 runs: 9%Minnesota Twins by 1 run: 15%Kansas City Royals by 1 run: 15%Kansas City Royals by 2 runs: 11%Kansas City Royals by 3 runs: 8%Kansas City Royals by 4 runs: 6%Kansas City Royals by 5 runs: 5%Kansas City Royals by 6 runs: 3%Kansas City Royals by 7 runs: 2%Kansas City Royals by 8 runs: 2%Kansas City Royals by 9 runs: 1%Kansas City Royals by 10 runs: 1%Kansas City Royals by 11 runs: 1%Kansas City Royals by 12 runs: <1%Kansas City Royals by 13 runs: <1%
← MIN wins byKC wins by →
Kansas City Royals wins by 2 or more41%
Kansas City Royals wins by 3 or more30%
Minnesota Twins wins by 2 or more29%
Decided by one run30%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.0 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 8%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 12%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 13%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 2%15 runs: 2%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.561%
Total over 8.541%
Total over 10.525%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
MINSimeon Woods Richardson SP · last 3 starts: 17.0 IP, 1.06 ERA, 23 Kstarted
KCKris Bubic SP · last 3 starts: 13.1 IP, 4.05 ERA, 9 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIN·KC
Mar 29 at BAL
last game
Mar 29 at ATL
0 days
days of rest
0 days
3
games in last 7 days
3
4th straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 3+ games
MIN·KC
−0.13
rating (0 = average)
+0.03
3.7
runs / game
2.0
3.7
runs allowed / game
4.3
1−2
season record
1−2
0−0
home record
0−0
1−2
away record
1−2
L1
streak
W1
5−5
last 10
5−5
7.0
hits / game
5.7
0.67
home runs / game
0.67
4.3
walks drawn / game
3.0
10.3
batter strikeouts / game
8.0
9.7
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.7
0.33
errors / game
0.00

Rating Trend

MIN · KC · 5 days
Minnesota TwinsKansas City Royals
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · KC 5−5
Sep 7, 2025at KCMIN 5 − 1
Sep 6, 2025at KCKC 11 − 2
Sep 5, 2025at KCKC 2 − 1
Aug 10, 2025at MINMIN 5 − 3
Aug 9, 2025at MINKC 2 − 0
Aug 8, 2025at MINMIN 9 − 4
May 25, 2025at MINKC 2 − 1
May 24, 2025at MINMIN 5 − 4
May 23, 2025at MINMIN 3 − 1
Apr 10, 2025at KCKC 3 − 2

MIN · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Mar 29at BAL6 − 8L
Mar 28at BAL4 − 1W
Mar 26at BAL1 − 2L
Sep 28, 2025at PHI1 − 2L
Sep 27, 2025at PHI5 − 0W
Sep 26, 2025at PHI1 − 3L
Sep 25, 2025at TEX4 − 0W
Sep 24, 2025at TEX2 − 4L
Sep 23, 2025at TEX4 − 1W
Sep 21, 2025vs CLE6 − 2W

KC · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Mar 29at ATL4 − 1W
Mar 28at ATL2 − 6L
Mar 27at ATL0 − 6L
Sep 28, 2025at ATH9 − 2W
Sep 27, 2025at ATH4 − 2W
Sep 26, 2025at ATH3 − 4L
Sep 25, 2025at LAA9 − 4W
Sep 24, 2025at LAA2 − 3L
Sep 23, 2025at LAA8 − 4W
Sep 21, 2025vs TOR5 − 8L