bayesRatings

Giants at Padres

MLB · Monday, Mar 30 · 8:40 PM CT · Petco Park · Final SF 3 – SD 2
← MLB / Mar 30

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
SF001200000360
SD000000002230
Team box
SF·SD
6
hits
3
1
home runs
1
3
walks
3
7
strikeouts
11
138
pitches thrown
135
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Jackson MerrillSD1-4112
Harrison BaderSF1-4111
Casey SchmittSF2-3001
Patrick BaileySF1-4001
Xander BogaertsSD1-4000
Fernando Tatis Jr.SD1-3000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Landen Roupp (W)SF6.02027
Ryan Walker (S)SF1.01211
Walker Buehler (L)SD4.05323

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
SD +3
SF +3
123456789
largest lead: SD 0 · SF 3lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SF 44%, SD 56% · Updated Mar 30

Expected margin
SD by 0.6
Expected score
SD 4.2 – 3.6 SF
Expected total
7.7
GiantsThe matchupPadres
+125Our fair odds−125
3.6Expected runs4.2
−0.03Power rating+0.10
0.3Runs / game2.3
4.3Allowed / game4.3
4.3Hits / game6.7
0.00Home runs / game0.33
2.3Walks drawn / game3.0
0−3Season record1−2
5−5Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SF chance · SD chance
Our model fair44.4%55.6%
Kalshi50.7%53.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 8:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SFSan Francisco Giants+12544%−10350.7%———
SDSan Diego Padres−12556%−11653.7%———
SpreadSD by 0.6
SFSan Francisco Giants+0.6our margin————
SDSan Diego Padres−0.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 7.7
Over7.7our total————
Under7.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

San Diego Padres by 0.6 expected
San Francisco Giants by 12 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 11 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 10 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 9 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 8 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 7 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 6 runs: 2%San Francisco Giants by 5 runs: 3%San Francisco Giants by 4 runs: 5%San Francisco Giants by 3 runs: 6%San Francisco Giants by 2 runs: 10%San Francisco Giants by 1 run: 15%San Diego Padres by 1 run: 16%San Diego Padres by 2 runs: 11%San Diego Padres by 3 runs: 8%San Diego Padres by 4 runs: 6%San Diego Padres by 5 runs: 5%San Diego Padres by 6 runs: 3%San Diego Padres by 7 runs: 2%San Diego Padres by 8 runs: 2%San Diego Padres by 9 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 10 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 11 runs: <1%San Diego Padres by 12 runs: <1%
← SF wins bySD wins by →
San Diego Padres wins by 2 or more40%
San Diego Padres wins by 3 or more29%
San Francisco Giants wins by 2 or more29%
Decided by one run31%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

7.7 expected
1 runs: 3%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 9%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 13%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 13%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 2%15 runs: 2%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: <1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 5.567%
Total over 7.546%
Total over 9.528%
Total from 6 to 939%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
SFLanden Roupp SP · last 3 starts: 10.1 IP, 8.71 ERA, 13 Kstarted
SDWalker Buehler SP · last 3 starts: 14.0 IP, 1.93 ERA, 9 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SF·SD
Mar 28 vs NYY
last game
Mar 28 vs DET
1 day
days of rest
1 day
3
games in last 7 days
3
road after a home game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 3+ games
SF·SD
−0.03
rating (0 = average)
+0.10
0.3
runs / game
2.3
4.3
runs allowed / game
4.3
0−3
season record
1−2
0−3
home record
1−2
0−0
away record
0−0
L3
streak
W1
5−5
last 10
5−5
4.3
hits / game
6.7
0.00
home runs / game
0.33
2.3
walks drawn / game
3.0
9.0
batter strikeouts / game
8.3
9.7
pitcher strikeouts / game
10.7
0.33
errors / game
0.33

Rating Trend

SF · SD · 5 days
San Francisco GiantsSan Diego Padres
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · SD 7−3
Aug 21, 2025at SDSD 8 − 4
Aug 20, 2025at SDSD 8 − 1
Aug 19, 2025at SDSD 5 − 1
Aug 18, 2025at SDSF 4 − 3
Aug 13, 2025at SFSD 11 − 1
Aug 12, 2025at SFSD 5 − 1
Aug 11, 2025at SFSD 4 − 1
Jun 5, 2025at SFSF 3 − 2
Jun 4, 2025at SFSF 6 − 5
Jun 3, 2025at SFSD 3 − 2

SF · Last 10

5−5 · streak L3
Mar 28vs NYY1 − 3L
Mar 27vs NYY0 − 3L
Mar 25vs NYY0 − 7L
Sep 28, 2025vs COL4 − 0W
Sep 27, 2025vs COL4 − 3W
Sep 26, 2025vs COL6 − 3W
Sep 24, 2025vs STL4 − 3W
Sep 23, 2025vs STL8 − 9L
Sep 22, 2025vs STL5 − 6L
Sep 21, 2025at LAD3 − 1W

SD · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Mar 28vs DET3 − 0W
Mar 27vs DET2 − 5L
Mar 26vs DET2 − 8L
Oct 2, 2025at CHC1 − 3L
Oct 1, 2025at CHC3 − 0W
Sep 30, 2025at CHC1 − 3L
Sep 28, 2025vs ARI12 − 4W
Sep 27, 2025vs ARI5 − 1W
Sep 26, 2025vs ARI7 − 4W
Sep 24, 2025vs MIL1 − 3L