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Warriors at Trail Blazers

NBA · Friday, Oct 24 · 9:00 PM CT · Moda Center · Final GS 119 – POR 139
← NBA / Oct 24, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
GS28283528119
POR28413436139
Team box
GS·POR
35-80
field goals
50-93
16-38
3-pointers
16-34
33-39
free throws
23-25
41
rebounds
38
24
assists
30
25
turnovers
19
30
points in paint
66
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Stephen CurryGS273563
Deni AvdijaPOR292656
Jerami GrantPOR282222
Toumani CamaraPOR331972
Shaedon SharpePOR251741
Jonathan KumingaGS241683

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
POR +25
GS +25
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: POR 25 · GS 8lead changes: 4

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was GS 62%, POR 38% · Updated Oct 24, 2025

Expected margin
GS by 4.0
Expected score
GS 112.3 – 108.3 POR
Expected total
220.7
WarriorsThe matchupTrail Blazers
−161Our fair odds+161
112.3Expected points108.3
+0.37Power rating−0.34
128.0Points / game114.0
120.0Allowed / game118.0
50.0FG%40.0
40.53P%31.0
41.5Rebounds / game39.0
2−0Season record0−1
4−6Last 104−6
Al Horford · Alex Toohey
De'Anthony MeltonOut (3 each)Damian Lillard · Robert Williams III
Scoot Henderson

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
GS chance · POR chance
Our model fair61.7%38.3%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
GSGolden State Warriors−16162%————
PORPortland Trail Blazers+16138%————
SpreadGS by 4.0
GSGolden State Warriors−4our margin————
PORPortland Trail Blazers+4our margin————
Totalwe expect 220.7
Over220.7our total————
Under220.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Golden State Warriors by 4.0 expected
Golden State Warriors by 45 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 44 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 43 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 42 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 41 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 40 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 39 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 38 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 37 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 36 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 35 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 34 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 33 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 32 points: <1%Golden State Warriors by 31 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 30 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 29 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 28 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 27 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 26 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 25 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 24 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 23 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 22 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 21 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 20 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 19 points: 1%Golden State Warriors by 18 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 17 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 16 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 15 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 14 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 13 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 12 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 11 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 10 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 9 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 8 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 7 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 6 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 5 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 4 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 3 points: 3%Golden State Warriors by 2 points: 2%Golden State Warriors by 1 point: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 1 point: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 2 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 3 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 4 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 5 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 6 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 7 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 8 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 9 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 10 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 11 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 12 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 13 points: 2%Portland Trail Blazers by 14 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 15 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 16 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 17 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 18 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 19 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 20 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 21 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 22 points: 1%Portland Trail Blazers by 23 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 24 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 25 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 26 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 27 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 28 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 29 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 30 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 31 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 32 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 33 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 34 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 35 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 36 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 37 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 38 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 39 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 40 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 41 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 42 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 43 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 44 points: <1%Portland Trail Blazers by 45 points: <1%
← GS wins byPOR wins by →
Golden State Warriors wins by 5 or more51%
Golden State Warriors wins by 10 or more36%
Golden State Warriors wins by 15 or more23%
Within 5 points either way24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

220.7 expected
174 points: <1%175 points: <1%176 points: <1%177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: 1%189 points: 1%190 points: 1%191 points: 1%192 points: 1%193 points: 1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 2%207 points: 2%208 points: 2%209 points: 2%210 points: 2%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 1%237 points: 1%238 points: 1%239 points: 1%240 points: 1%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: <1%255 points: <1%256 points: <1%257 points: <1%258 points: <1%259 points: <1%260 points: <1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 210.570%
Total over 220.550%
Total over 230.530%
Total from 211 to 23039%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Golden State Warriors
GStephen Currystarted
FJimmy Butler IIIstarted
FDraymond Greenstarted
FJonathan Kumingastarted
CQuinten Poststarted
Portland Trail Blazers
GJrue Holidaystarted
GShaedon Sharpestarted
FToumani Camarastarted
FDeni Avdijastarted
CDonovan Clinganstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
GS·POR
Oct 23, 2025 vs DEN
last game
Oct 22, 2025 vs MIN
0 days
days of rest
1 day
yes
back-to-back
no
2
games in last 7 days
1
road after a home game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Oct 24, 5:00 PM ET
Golden State Warriors
GSAl Horford · left toe; injury managementOut
GSAlex Toohey · left knee; patellofemoral painOut
GSDe'Anthony Melton · left acl; surgeryOut
GSJonathan Kuminga · right ankle; inflammationProbable
Portland Trail Blazers
PORDamian Lillard · left achilles tendon; injury recoveryOut
PORRobert Williams III · return to competition reconditioningOut
PORScoot Henderson · left hamstring; tearOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 1+ games
GS·POR
+0.37
rating (0 = average)
−0.34
128.0
points / game
114.0
120.0
points allowed / game
118.0
2−0
season record
0−1
1−0
home record
0−1
1−0
away record
0−0
W2
streak
L1
4−6
last 10
4−6
50.0
FG%
40.0
40.5
3P%
31.0
41.5
rebounds / game
39.0
31.0
assists / game
25.0
14.0
turnovers / game
16.0
47.0
points in paint / game
42.0

Rating Trend

GS · POR · 4 days
Golden State WarriorsPortland Trail Blazers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · POR 1−9
Apr 11, 2025at PORGS 103 − 86
Mar 10, 2025at GSGS 130 − 120
Oct 23, 2024at PORGS 140 − 104
Apr 11, 2024at PORGS 100 − 92
Dec 23, 2023at GSGS 126 − 106
Dec 17, 2023at PORGS 118 − 114
Dec 6, 2023at GSGS 110 − 106
Apr 9, 2023at PORGS 157 − 101
Feb 28, 2023at GSGS 123 − 105
Feb 8, 2023at PORPOR 125 − 122

GS · Last 10

4−6 · streak W2
Oct 23, 2025vs DEN137 − 131W
Oct 21, 2025at LAL119 − 109W
May 14, 2025at MIN110 − 121L
May 12, 2025vs MIN110 − 117L
May 10, 2025vs MIN97 − 102L
May 8, 2025at MIN93 − 117L
May 6, 2025at MIN99 − 88W
May 4, 2025at HOU103 − 89W
May 2, 2025vs HOU107 − 115L
Apr 30, 2025at HOU116 − 131L

POR · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Oct 22, 2025vs MIN114 − 118L
Apr 13, 2025vs LAL109 − 81W
Apr 11, 2025vs GS86 − 103L
Apr 9, 2025at UTAH126 − 133L
Apr 6, 2025vs SA120 − 109W
Apr 4, 2025at CHI113 − 118L
Apr 3, 2025at TOR112 − 103W
Apr 1, 2025at ATL127 − 113W
Mar 30, 2025at NY93 − 110L
Mar 27, 2025at SAC107 − 128L