bayesRatings

Timberwolves at Lakers

NBA · Friday, Oct 24 · 9:00 PM CT · crypto.com Arena · Final MIN 110 – LAL 128
← NBA / Oct 24, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
MIN40233116110
LAL36324020128
Team box
MIN·LAL
41-88
field goals
45-76
13-38
3-pointers
12-29
15-21
free throws
26-32
40
rebounds
38
24
assists
26
12
turnovers
12
46
points in paint
54
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Luka DoncicLAL3549118
Anthony EdwardsMIN353145
Julius RandleMIN302696
Austin ReavesLAL3725711
Rui HachimuraLAL322320
Deandre AytonLAL311580

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
LAL +25
MIN +25
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: LAL 25 · MIN 11lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIN 54%, LAL 46% · Updated Oct 24, 2025

Expected margin
MIN by 0.9
Expected score
MIN 110.9 – 110.0 LAL
Expected total
220.9
TimberwolvesThe matchupLakers
−120Our fair odds+120
110.9Expected points110.0
+0.68Power rating+0.26
118.0Points / game109.0
114.0Allowed / game119.0
49.0FG%55.0
50.03P%25.0
45.0Rebounds / game39.0
1−0Season record0−1
6−4Last 103−7
—OutAdou Thiero · LeBron James
Maxi Kleber

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIN chance · LAL chance
Our model fair54.5%45.5%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MINMinnesota Timberwolves−12054%————
LALLos Angeles Lakers+12046%————
SpreadMIN by 0.9
MINMinnesota Timberwolves−0.9our margin————
LALLos Angeles Lakers+0.9our margin————
Totalwe expect 220.9
Over220.9our total————
Under220.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Minnesota Timberwolves by 0.9 expected
Minnesota Timberwolves by 41 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 40 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 39 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 38 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 37 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 36 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 35 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 34 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 33 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 32 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 31 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 30 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 29 points: <1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 28 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 27 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 26 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 25 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 24 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 23 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 22 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 21 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 20 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 19 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 18 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 17 points: 1%Minnesota Timberwolves by 16 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 15 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 14 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 13 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 12 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 11 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 10 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 9 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 8 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 7 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 6 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 5 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 4 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 3 points: 3%Minnesota Timberwolves by 2 points: 2%Minnesota Timberwolves by 1 point: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 1 point: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 2 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 3 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 4 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 5 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 6 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 7 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 8 points: 3%Los Angeles Lakers by 9 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 10 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 11 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 12 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 13 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 14 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 15 points: 2%Los Angeles Lakers by 16 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 17 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 18 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 19 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 20 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 21 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 22 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 23 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 24 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 25 points: 1%Los Angeles Lakers by 26 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 27 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 28 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 29 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 30 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 31 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 32 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 33 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 34 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 35 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 36 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 37 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 38 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 39 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 40 points: <1%Los Angeles Lakers by 41 points: <1%
← MIN wins byLAL wins by →
Minnesota Timberwolves wins by 5 or more42%
Minnesota Timberwolves wins by 10 or more29%
Minnesota Timberwolves wins by 15 or more18%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

220.9 expected
174 points: <1%175 points: <1%176 points: <1%177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: 1%189 points: 1%190 points: 1%191 points: 1%192 points: 1%193 points: 1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 2%207 points: 2%208 points: 2%209 points: 2%210 points: 2%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 1%237 points: 1%238 points: 1%239 points: 1%240 points: 1%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: <1%255 points: <1%256 points: <1%257 points: <1%258 points: <1%259 points: <1%260 points: <1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 210.570%
Total over 220.550%
Total over 230.531%
Total from 211 to 23039%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Minnesota Timberwolves
GDonte DiVincenzostarted
GAnthony Edwardsstarted
FJulius Randlestarted
FJaden McDanielsstarted
CRudy Gobertstarted
Los Angeles Lakers
GGabe Vincentstarted
GLuka Doncicstarted
GAustin Reavesstarted
FRui Hachimurastarted
CDeandre Aytonstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIN·LAL
Oct 22, 2025 at POR
last game
Oct 21, 2025 vs GS
1 day
days of rest
2 days
no
back-to-back
no
1
games in last 7 days
1
2nd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Oct 24, 5:00 PM ET
LALAdou Thiero · left knee; surgery recoveryOut
LALLeBron James · right sciatica; -Out
LALMaxi Kleber · abdominal muscle; strainOut
LALJaxson Hayes · left knee; sorenessQuestionable

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 1+ games
MIN·LAL
+0.68
rating (0 = average)
+0.26
118.0
points / game
109.0
114.0
points allowed / game
119.0
1−0
season record
0−1
0−0
home record
0−1
1−0
away record
0−0
W1
streak
L1
6−4
last 10
3−7
49.0
FG%
55.0
50.0
3P%
25.0
45.0
rebounds / game
39.0
21.0
assists / game
23.0
19.0
turnovers / game
20.0
40.0
points in paint / game
62.0

Rating Trend

MIN · LAL · 4 days
Minnesota TimberwolvesLos Angeles Lakers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · LAL 3−7
Apr 30, 2025at LALMIN 103 − 96post
Apr 27, 2025at MINMIN 116 − 113post
Apr 25, 2025at MINMIN 116 − 104post
Apr 22, 2025at LALLAL 94 − 85post
Apr 19, 2025at LALMIN 117 − 95post
Feb 27, 2025at LALLAL 111 − 102
Dec 13, 2024at MINMIN 97 − 87
Dec 2, 2024at MINMIN 109 − 80
Oct 22, 2024at LALLAL 110 − 103
Apr 7, 2024at LALMIN 127 − 117

MIN · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Oct 22, 2025at POR118 − 114W
May 28, 2025at OKC94 − 124L
May 26, 2025vs OKC126 − 128L
May 24, 2025vs OKC143 − 101W
May 22, 2025at OKC103 − 118L
May 20, 2025at OKC88 − 114L
May 14, 2025vs GS121 − 110W
May 12, 2025at GS117 − 110W
May 10, 2025at GS102 − 97W
May 8, 2025vs GS117 − 93W

LAL · Last 10

3−7 · streak L4
Oct 21, 2025vs GS109 − 119L
Apr 30, 2025vs MIN96 − 103L
Apr 27, 2025at MIN113 − 116L
Apr 25, 2025at MIN104 − 116L
Apr 22, 2025vs MIN94 − 85W
Apr 19, 2025vs MIN95 − 117L
Apr 13, 2025at POR81 − 109L
Apr 11, 2025vs HOU140 − 109W
Apr 9, 2025at DAL112 − 97W
Apr 8, 2025at OKC120 − 136L