bayesRatings

Thunder at Hawks

NBA · Saturday, Oct 25 · 6:30 PM CT · State Farm Arena · Final OKC 117 – ATL 100
← NBA / Oct 25, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
OKC31293918117
ATL26292520100
Team box
OKC·ATL
43-93
field goals
35-85
14-37
3-pointers
16-39
17-19
free throws
14-21
50
rebounds
46
21
assists
25
13
turnovers
17
50
points in paint
34
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Chet HolmgrenOKC2731111
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderOKC293055
Nickeil Alexander-WalkerATL301732
Trae YoungATL3015410
Ajay MitchellOKC291477
Isaiah HartensteinOKC2914102

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ATL +24
OKC +24
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: ATL 0 · OKC 24lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was OKC 78%, ATL 22% · Updated Oct 25, 2025

Expected margin
OKC by 9.4
Expected score
OKC 123.9 – 114.5 ATL
Expected total
238.3
ThunderThe matchupHawks
−346Our fair odds+346
123.9Expected points114.5
+1.37Power rating−0.13
133.0Points / game114.5
129.5Allowed / game122.5
44.5FG%45.0
27.03P%28.5
49.0Rebounds / game37.0
2−0Season record1−1
7−3Last 105−5
Alex Caruso · Isaiah Joe
Jalen Williams · Kenrich Williams
Nikola TopicOutJalen Johnson · Kristaps Porzingis
Zaccharie Risacher

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
OKC chance · ATL chance
Our model fair77.6%22.4%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
OKCOklahoma City Thunder−34678%————
ATLAtlanta Hawks+34622%————
SpreadOKC by 9.4
OKCOklahoma City Thunder−9.4our margin————
ATLAtlanta Hawks+9.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 238.3
Over238.3our total————
Under238.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Oklahoma City Thunder by 9.4 expected
Oklahoma City Thunder by 49 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 48 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 47 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 46 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 45 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 44 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 43 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 42 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 41 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 40 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 39 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 38 points: <1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 37 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 36 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 35 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 34 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 33 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 32 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 31 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 30 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 29 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 28 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 27 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 26 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 25 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 24 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 23 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 22 points: 1%Oklahoma City Thunder by 21 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 20 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 19 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 18 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 17 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 16 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 15 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 14 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 13 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 12 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 11 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 10 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 9 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 8 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 7 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 6 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 5 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 4 points: 3%Oklahoma City Thunder by 3 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 2 points: 2%Oklahoma City Thunder by 1 point: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 1 point: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 2 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 3 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 4 points: 2%Atlanta Hawks by 5 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 6 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 7 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 8 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 9 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 10 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 11 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 12 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 13 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 14 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 15 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 16 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 17 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 18 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 19 points: 1%Atlanta Hawks by 20 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 21 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 22 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 23 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 24 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 25 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 26 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 27 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 28 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 29 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 30 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 31 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 32 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 33 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 34 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 35 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 36 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 37 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 38 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 39 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 40 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 41 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 42 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 43 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 44 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 45 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 46 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 47 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 48 points: <1%Atlanta Hawks by 49 points: <1%
← OKC wins byATL wins by →
Oklahoma City Thunder wins by 5 or more67%
Oklahoma City Thunder wins by 10 or more50%
Oklahoma City Thunder wins by 15 or more34%
Within 5 points either way20%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,531 past NBA games.

Total range

238.3 expected
188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: <1%201 points: <1%202 points: <1%203 points: <1%204 points: <1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 1%218 points: 1%219 points: 1%220 points: 1%221 points: 1%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 2%247 points: 2%248 points: 2%249 points: 2%250 points: 2%251 points: 2%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: 1%267 points: 1%268 points: 1%269 points: 1%270 points: 1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%290 points: <1%291 points: <1%292 points: <1%293 points: <1%294 points: <1%295 points: <1%296 points: <1%297 points: <1%298 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 228.567%
Total over 238.548%
Total over 248.530%
Total from 229 to 24837%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,531 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Oklahoma City Thunder
GShai Gilgeous-Alexanderstarted
GLuguentz Dortstarted
GCason Wallacestarted
CIsaiah Hartensteinstarted
CChet Holmgrenstarted
Atlanta Hawks
GTrae Youngstarted
GNickeil Alexander-Walkerstarted
GDyson Danielsstarted
FOnyeka Okongwustarted
FMouhamed Gueyestarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
OKC·ATL
Oct 23, 2025 at IND
last game
Oct 24, 2025 at ORL
1 day
days of rest
0 days
no
back-to-back
yes
2
games in last 7 days
2
2nd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Oct 25, 5:00 PM ET
Oklahoma City Thunder
OKCAlex Caruso · n/a; concussionOut
OKCIsaiah Joe · left knee; contusionOut
OKCJalen Williams · right wrist; surgical recoveryOut
OKCKenrich Williams · left knee; surgical recoveryOut
OKCNikola Topic · n/a; surgical recoveryOut
OKCThomas Sorber · right acl; surgical recoveryOut
Atlanta Hawks
ATLJalen Johnson · right ankle; sprainOut
ATLKristaps Porzingis · flu-like; symptomsOut
ATLZaccharie Risacher · right ankle; sprainOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 2+ games
OKC·ATL
+1.37
rating (0 = average)
−0.13
133.0
points / game
114.5
129.5
points allowed / game
122.5
2−0
season record
1−1
1−0
home record
0−1
1−0
away record
1−0
W2
streak
W1
7−3
last 10
5−5
44.5
FG%
45.0
27.0
3P%
28.5
49.0
rebounds / game
37.0
23.0
assists / game
25.5
13.0
turnovers / game
16.0
50.0
points in paint / game
57.0

Rating Trend

OKC · ATL · 5 days
Oklahoma City ThunderAtlanta Hawks
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 8 meetings · ATL 4−4
Feb 28, 2025at ATLOKC 135 − 119
Oct 27, 2024at OKCOKC 128 − 104
Jan 3, 2024at ATLATL 141 − 138
Nov 6, 2023at OKCOKC 126 − 117
Jan 25, 2023at OKCATL 137 − 132
Dec 5, 2022at ATLOKC 121 − 114
Mar 30, 2022at OKCATL 136 − 118
Nov 22, 2021at ATLATL 113 − 101

OKC · Last 10

7−3 · streak W3
Oct 23, 2025at IND141 − 135W
Oct 21, 2025vs HOU125 − 124W
Jun 22, 2025vs IND103 − 91W
Jun 19, 2025at IND91 − 108L
Jun 16, 2025vs IND120 − 109W
Jun 13, 2025at IND111 − 104W
Jun 11, 2025at IND107 − 116L
Jun 8, 2025vs IND123 − 107W
Jun 5, 2025vs IND110 − 111L
May 28, 2025vs MIN124 − 94W

ATL · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Oct 24, 2025at ORL111 − 107W
Oct 22, 2025vs TOR118 − 138L
Apr 13, 2025vs ORL117 − 105W
Apr 11, 2025at PHI124 − 110W
Apr 10, 2025at BKN133 − 109W
Apr 8, 2025at ORL112 − 119L
Apr 6, 2025vs UTAH147 − 134W
Apr 5, 2025vs NY105 − 121L
Apr 2, 2025at DAL118 − 120L
Apr 1, 2025vs POR113 − 127L