bayesRatings

Nets at Spurs

NBA · Sunday, Oct 26 · 1:00 PM CT · Frost Bank Center · Final BKN 107 – SA 118
← NBA / Oct 26, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
BKN24243326107
SA31381930118
Team box
BKN·SA
34-87
field goals
39-78
16-50
3-pointers
12-27
23-24
free throws
28-36
34
rebounds
45
22
assists
20
12
turnovers
15
28
points in paint
48
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Cam ThomasBKN324120
Victor WembanyamaSA3631144
Dylan HarperSA292068
Keldon JohnsonSA291961
Devin VassellSA351631
Michael Porter Jr.BKN381564

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
SA +26
BKN +26
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: SA 26 · BKN 7lead changes: 9

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was BKN 35%, SA 65% · Updated Oct 26, 2025

Expected margin
SA by 4.0
Expected score
SA 113.4 – 109.4 BKN
Expected total
222.8
NetsThe matchupSpurs
+182Our fair odds−182
109.4Expected points113.4
−0.76Power rating−0.39
120.5Points / game122.5
133.5Allowed / game104.0
47.5FG%51.5
38.53P%35.0
38.0Rebounds / game54.5
0−2Season record2−0
3−7Last 105−5
Danny Wolf · Drake Powell
Haywood HighsmithOutDe'Aaron Fox · Jeremy Sochan
Kelly Olynyk · Lindy Waters III
Luke Kornet

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
BKN chance · SA chance
Our model fair35.5%64.5%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
BKNBrooklyn Nets+18235%————
SASan Antonio Spurs−18265%————
SpreadSA by 4.0
BKNBrooklyn Nets+4our margin————
SASan Antonio Spurs−4our margin————
Totalwe expect 222.8
Over222.8our total————
Under222.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

San Antonio Spurs by 4.0 expected
Brooklyn Nets by 45 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 44 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 43 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 42 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 41 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 40 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 39 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 38 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 37 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 36 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 35 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 34 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 33 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 32 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 31 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 30 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 29 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 28 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 27 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 26 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 25 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 24 points: <1%Brooklyn Nets by 23 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 22 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 21 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 20 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 19 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 18 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 17 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 16 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 15 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 14 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 13 points: 1%Brooklyn Nets by 12 points: 2%Brooklyn Nets by 11 points: 2%Brooklyn Nets by 10 points: 2%Brooklyn Nets by 9 points: 2%Brooklyn Nets by 8 points: 2%Brooklyn Nets by 7 points: 2%Brooklyn Nets by 6 points: 2%Brooklyn Nets by 5 points: 2%Brooklyn Nets by 4 points: 2%Brooklyn Nets by 3 points: 2%Brooklyn Nets by 2 points: 2%Brooklyn Nets by 1 point: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 1 point: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 2 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 3 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 4 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 5 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 6 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 7 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 8 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 9 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 10 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 11 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 12 points: 3%San Antonio Spurs by 13 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 14 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 15 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 16 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 17 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 18 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 19 points: 2%San Antonio Spurs by 20 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 21 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 22 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 23 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 24 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 25 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 26 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 27 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 28 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 29 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 30 points: 1%San Antonio Spurs by 31 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 32 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 33 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 34 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 35 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 36 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 37 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 38 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 39 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 40 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 41 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 42 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 43 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 44 points: <1%San Antonio Spurs by 45 points: <1%
← BKN wins bySA wins by →
San Antonio Spurs wins by 5 or more51%
San Antonio Spurs wins by 10 or more36%
San Antonio Spurs wins by 15 or more23%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

222.8 expected
175 points: <1%176 points: <1%177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: 1%191 points: 1%192 points: 1%193 points: 1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 2%208 points: 2%209 points: 2%210 points: 2%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 1%239 points: 1%240 points: 1%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: <1%258 points: <1%259 points: <1%260 points: <1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 212.570%
Total over 222.550%
Total over 232.530%
Total from 213 to 23239%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Brooklyn Nets
GTerance Mannstarted
GCam Thomasstarted
GBen Sarafstarted
FMichael Porter Jr.started
CNic Claxtonstarted
San Antonio Spurs
GDevin Vassellstarted
GStephon Castlestarted
FHarrison Barnesstarted
FJulian Champagniestarted
FVictor Wembanyamastarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
BKN·SA
Oct 24, 2025 vs CLE
last game
Oct 24, 2025 at NO
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
2
games in last 7 days
2
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Oct 26, 5:00 PM ET
Brooklyn Nets
BKNDanny Wolf · left ankle; sprainOut
BKNDrake Powell · right ankle; sprainOut
BKNHaywood Highsmith · right knee; surgery, injury recoveryOut
San Antonio Spurs
SADe'Aaron Fox · right hamstring; strainOut
SAJeremy Sochan · left wrist; sprainOut
SAKelly Olynyk · left heel; surgeryOut
SALindy Waters III · bilateral eye; procedureOut
SALuke Kornet · left ankle; sprainOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 2+ games
BKN·SA
−0.76
rating (0 = average)
−0.39
120.5
points / game
122.5
133.5
points allowed / game
104.0
0−2
season record
2−0
0−1
home record
0−0
0−1
away record
2−0
L2
streak
W2
3−7
last 10
5−5
47.5
FG%
51.5
38.5
3P%
35.0
38.0
rebounds / game
54.5
27.5
assists / game
24.5
18.5
turnovers / game
17.0
45.0
points in paint / game
66.0

Rating Trend

BKN · SA · 6 days
Brooklyn NetsSan Antonio Spurs
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 8 meetings · SA 4−4
Mar 4, 2025at SASA 127 − 113
Dec 27, 2024at BKNSA 96 − 87
Mar 17, 2024at SASA 122 − 115
Feb 10, 2024at BKNBKN 123 − 103
Jan 17, 2023at SASA 106 − 98
Jan 2, 2023at BKNBKN 139 − 103
Jan 21, 2022at SABKN 117 − 102
Jan 9, 2022at BKNBKN 121 − 119

BKN · Last 10

3−7 · streak L5
Oct 24, 2025vs CLE124 − 131L
Oct 22, 2025at CHA117 − 136L
Apr 13, 2025vs NY105 − 113L
Apr 11, 2025at MIN91 − 117L
Apr 10, 2025vs ATL109 − 133L
Apr 8, 2025vs NO119 − 114W
Apr 6, 2025vs TOR109 − 120L
Apr 3, 2025vs MIN90 − 105L
Mar 31, 2025at DAL113 − 109W
Mar 29, 2025at WSH115 − 112W

SA · Last 10

5−5 · streak W3
Oct 24, 2025at NO120 − 116W
Oct 22, 2025at DAL125 − 92W
Apr 13, 2025vs TOR125 − 118W
Apr 11, 2025at PHX98 − 117L
Apr 9, 2025at GS114 − 111W
Apr 8, 2025at LAC117 − 122L
Apr 6, 2025at POR109 − 120L
Apr 4, 2025vs CLE113 − 114L
Apr 2, 2025at DEN113 − 106W
Apr 1, 2025vs ORL105 − 116L