bayesRatings

Hornets at Wizards

NBA · Sunday, Oct 26 · 5:00 PM CT · Capital One Arena · Final CHA 139 – WSH 113
← NBA / Oct 26, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
CHA31204444139
WSH30322625113
Team box
CHA·WSH
47-92
field goals
41-91
15-38
3-pointers
10-34
30-36
free throws
21-25
52
rebounds
40
30
assists
25
12
turnovers
15
62
points in paint
46
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
LaMelo BallCHA35381313
CJ McCollumWSH302465
Alex SarrWSH252345
Miles BridgesCHA322243
Kon KnueppelCHA352062
Collin SextonCHA332023

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
WSH +28
CHA +28
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: WSH 13 · CHA 28lead changes: 7

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CHA 48%, WSH 52% · Updated Oct 26, 2025

Expected margin
CHA by 1.8
Expected score
CHA 112.2 – 110.4 WSH
Expected total
222.6
HornetsThe matchupWizards
+108Our fair odds−108
112.2Expected points110.4
−1.20Power rating−1.36
128.5Points / game118.5
121.0Allowed / game120.0
50.5FG%46.5
42.53P%41.0
47.5Rebounds / game52.0
1−1Season record1−1
2−8Last 103−7
Antonio Reeves · Brandon Miller
Drew Peterson · Grant Williams
Josh GreenOutBilal Coulibaly · Jamir Watkins
Malaki Branham

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CHA chance · WSH chance
Our model fair48.1%51.9%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CHACharlotte Hornets+10848%————
WSHWashington Wizards−10852%————
SpreadCHA by 1.8
CHACharlotte Hornets−1.8our margin————
WSHWashington Wizards+1.8our margin————
Totalwe expect 222.6
Over222.6our total————
Under222.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Charlotte Hornets by 1.8 expected
Charlotte Hornets by 42 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 41 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 40 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 39 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 38 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 37 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 36 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 35 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 34 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 33 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 32 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 31 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 30 points: <1%Charlotte Hornets by 29 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 28 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 27 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 26 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 25 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 24 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 23 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 22 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 21 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 20 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 19 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 18 points: 1%Charlotte Hornets by 17 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 16 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 15 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 14 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 13 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 12 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 11 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 10 points: 3%Charlotte Hornets by 9 points: 3%Charlotte Hornets by 8 points: 3%Charlotte Hornets by 7 points: 3%Charlotte Hornets by 6 points: 3%Charlotte Hornets by 5 points: 3%Charlotte Hornets by 4 points: 3%Charlotte Hornets by 3 points: 3%Charlotte Hornets by 2 points: 2%Charlotte Hornets by 1 point: 2%Washington Wizards by 1 point: 2%Washington Wizards by 2 points: 2%Washington Wizards by 3 points: 2%Washington Wizards by 4 points: 2%Washington Wizards by 5 points: 3%Washington Wizards by 6 points: 3%Washington Wizards by 7 points: 3%Washington Wizards by 8 points: 2%Washington Wizards by 9 points: 2%Washington Wizards by 10 points: 2%Washington Wizards by 11 points: 2%Washington Wizards by 12 points: 2%Washington Wizards by 13 points: 2%Washington Wizards by 14 points: 2%Washington Wizards by 15 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 16 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 17 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 18 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 19 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 20 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 21 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 22 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 23 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 24 points: 1%Washington Wizards by 25 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 26 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 27 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 28 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 29 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 30 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 31 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 32 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 33 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 34 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 35 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 36 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 37 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 38 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 39 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 40 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 41 points: <1%Washington Wizards by 42 points: <1%
← CHA wins byWSH wins by →
Charlotte Hornets wins by 5 or more45%
Charlotte Hornets wins by 10 or more31%
Charlotte Hornets wins by 15 or more19%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

222.6 expected
175 points: <1%176 points: <1%177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: 1%191 points: 1%192 points: 1%193 points: 1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 2%208 points: 2%209 points: 2%210 points: 2%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 1%239 points: 1%240 points: 1%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: <1%257 points: <1%258 points: <1%259 points: <1%260 points: <1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 212.569%
Total over 222.550%
Total over 232.530%
Total from 213 to 23239%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Charlotte Hornets
GCollin Sextonstarted
GLaMelo Ballstarted
GKon Knueppelstarted
FMiles Bridgesstarted
CRyan Kalkbrennerstarted
Washington Wizards
GCJ McCollumstarted
GBub Carringtonstarted
FKhris Middletonstarted
FKyshawn Georgestarted
CAlex Sarrstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CHA·WSH
Oct 25, 2025 at PHI
last game
Oct 24, 2025 at DAL
0 days
days of rest
1 day
yes
back-to-back
no
2
games in last 7 days
2
2nd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Oct 26, 5:00 PM ET
Charlotte Hornets
CHAAntonio Reeves · g league - two-wayOut
CHABrandon Miller · left shoulder; sorenessOut
CHADrew Peterson · g league - two-wayOut
CHAGrant Williams · right knee; surgeryOut
CHAJosh Green · left shoulder; surgeryOut
CHAKJ Simpson · g league - two-wayOut
Washington Wizards
WSHBilal Coulibaly · right hand; surgeryOut
WSHJamir Watkins · g league - two-wayOut
WSHMalaki Branham · coach's decisionOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 2+ games
CHA·WSH
−1.20
rating (0 = average)
−1.36
128.5
points / game
118.5
121.0
points allowed / game
120.0
1−1
season record
1−1
1−0
home record
0−0
0−1
away record
1−1
L1
streak
W1
2−8
last 10
3−7
50.5
FG%
46.5
42.5
3P%
41.0
47.5
rebounds / game
52.0
31.5
assists / game
25.0
17.0
turnovers / game
15.0
54.0
points in paint / game
42.0

Rating Trend

CHA · WSH · 6 days
Charlotte HornetsWashington Wizards
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · WSH 7−3
Mar 1, 2025at CHAWSH 113 − 100
Feb 3, 2025at CHAWSH 124 − 114
Dec 26, 2024at WSHWSH 113 − 110
Dec 19, 2024at WSHWSH 123 − 114
Mar 8, 2024at WSHWSH 112 − 100
Nov 22, 2023at CHACHA 117 − 114
Nov 10, 2023at WSHCHA 124 − 117
Nov 8, 2023at CHAWSH 132 − 116
Feb 8, 2023at WSHWSH 118 − 104
Dec 2, 2022at CHACHA 117 − 116

CHA · Last 10

2−8 · streak L1
Oct 25, 2025at PHI121 − 125L
Oct 22, 2025vs BKN136 − 117W
Apr 13, 2025at BOS86 − 93L
Apr 11, 2025at BOS94 − 130L
Apr 9, 2025at TOR96 − 126L
Apr 8, 2025vs MEM100 − 124L
Apr 6, 2025vs CHI117 − 131L
Apr 4, 2025vs SAC102 − 125L
Apr 2, 2025at IND105 − 119L
Mar 31, 2025vs UTAH110 − 106W

WSH · Last 10

3−7 · streak W1
Oct 24, 2025at DAL117 − 107W
Oct 22, 2025at MIL120 − 133L
Apr 13, 2025at MIA119 − 118W
Apr 11, 2025at CHI89 − 119L
Apr 9, 2025vs PHI103 − 122L
Apr 8, 2025at IND98 − 104L
Apr 6, 2025at BOS90 − 124L
Apr 3, 2025vs ORL97 − 109L
Apr 2, 2025vs SAC116 − 111W
Mar 31, 2025vs MIA94 − 120L