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Bucks at Cavaliers

NBA · Sunday, Oct 26 · 5:00 PM CT · Rocket Arena · Final MIL 113 – CLE 118
← NBA / Oct 26, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
MIL31252829113
CLE29362132118
Team box
MIL·CLE
40-79
field goals
39-87
13-33
3-pointers
12-40
20-28
free throws
28-35
37
rebounds
44
25
assists
23
18
turnovers
17
48
points in paint
40
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Giannis AntetokounmpoMIL3340149
Donovan MitchellCLE332434
Evan MobleyCLE342386
AJ GreenMIL312022
Sam MerrillCLE301731
De'Andre HunterCLE271642

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CLE +18
MIL +18
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: CLE 18 · MIL 6lead changes: 3

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIL 31%, CLE 69% · Updated Oct 26, 2025

Expected margin
CLE by 8.2
Expected score
CLE 120.8 – 112.7 MIL
Expected total
233.5
BucksThe matchupCavaliers
+226Our fair odds−226
112.7Expected points120.8
+0.28Power rating+0.87
127.5Points / game121.0
118.0Allowed / game121.5
51.5FG%50.5
38.03P%42.0
48.5Rebounds / game34.0
2−0Season record1−1
6−4Last 105−5
Cole Anthony · Kevin Porter Jr.
Kyle KuzmaOut (3 each)Darius Garland · Max Strus
Nae'Qwan Tomlin

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIL chance · CLE chance
Our model fair30.7%69.3%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MILMilwaukee Bucks+22631%————
CLECleveland Cavaliers−22669%————
SpreadCLE by 8.2
MILMilwaukee Bucks+8.2our margin————
CLECleveland Cavaliers−8.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 233.5
Over233.5our total————
Under233.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Cleveland Cavaliers by 8.2 expected
Milwaukee Bucks by 50 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 49 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 48 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 47 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 46 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 45 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 44 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 43 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 42 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 41 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 40 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 39 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 38 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 37 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 36 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 35 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 34 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 33 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 32 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 31 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 30 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 29 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 28 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 27 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 26 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 25 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 24 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 23 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 22 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 21 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 20 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 19 points: <1%Milwaukee Bucks by 18 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 17 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 16 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 15 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 14 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 13 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 12 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 11 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 10 points: 1%Milwaukee Bucks by 9 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 8 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 7 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 6 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 5 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 4 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 3 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 2 points: 2%Milwaukee Bucks by 1 point: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 1 point: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 2 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 3 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 4 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 5 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 6 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 7 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 8 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 9 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 10 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 11 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 12 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 13 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 14 points: 3%Cleveland Cavaliers by 15 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 16 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 17 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 18 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 19 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 20 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 21 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 22 points: 2%Cleveland Cavaliers by 23 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 24 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 25 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 26 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 27 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 28 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 29 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 30 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 31 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 32 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 33 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 34 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 35 points: 1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 36 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 37 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 38 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 39 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 40 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 41 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 42 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 43 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 44 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 45 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 46 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 47 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 48 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 49 points: <1%Cleveland Cavaliers by 50 points: <1%
← MIL wins byCLE wins by →
Cleveland Cavaliers wins by 5 or more62%
Cleveland Cavaliers wins by 10 or more46%
Cleveland Cavaliers wins by 15 or more32%
Within 5 points either way22%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

233.5 expected
183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: <1%197 points: <1%198 points: <1%199 points: <1%200 points: <1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 1%214 points: 1%215 points: 1%216 points: 1%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 2%243 points: 2%244 points: 2%245 points: 2%246 points: 2%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: 1%263 points: 1%264 points: 1%265 points: 1%266 points: 1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%283 points: <1%284 points: <1%285 points: <1%286 points: <1%287 points: <1%288 points: <1%289 points: <1%290 points: <1%291 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 223.568%
Total over 233.549%
Total over 243.530%
Total from 224 to 24338%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Milwaukee Bucks
GGary Trent Jr.started
GAJ Greenstarted
GRyan Rollinsstarted
FGiannis Antetokounmpostarted
CMyles Turnerstarted
Cleveland Cavaliers
GDonovan Mitchellstarted
GSam Merrillstarted
FDe'Andre Hunterstarted
CJarrett Allenstarted
CEvan Mobleystarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIL·CLE
Oct 24, 2025 at TOR
last game
Oct 24, 2025 at BKN
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
2
games in last 7 days
2
2nd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Oct 26, 5:00 PM ET
Milwaukee Bucks
MILCole Anthony · non-covid; illnessOut
MILKevin Porter Jr. · left ankle; sprainOut
MILKyle Kuzma · left ankle; sprainOut
Cleveland Cavaliers
CLEDarius Garland · left great toe;Out
CLEMax Strus · left foot; surgery - jones fractureOut
CLENae'Qwan Tomlin · g league - two-wayOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 2+ games
MIL·CLE
+0.28
rating (0 = average)
+0.87
127.5
points / game
121.0
118.0
points allowed / game
121.5
2−0
season record
1−1
1−0
home record
0−0
1−0
away record
1−1
W2
streak
W1
6−4
last 10
5−5
51.5
FG%
50.5
38.0
3P%
42.0
48.5
rebounds / game
34.0
28.0
assists / game
26.5
13.5
turnovers / game
16.0
57.0
points in paint / game
39.0

Rating Trend

MIL · CLE · 6 days
Milwaukee BucksCleveland Cavaliers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CLE 8−2
Mar 9, 2025at MILCLE 112 − 100
Dec 20, 2024at CLECLE 124 − 101
Nov 4, 2024at CLECLE 116 − 114
Nov 2, 2024at MILCLE 114 − 113
Jan 26, 2024at MILCLE 112 − 100
Jan 24, 2024at MILMIL 126 − 116
Jan 17, 2024at CLECLE 135 − 95
Dec 29, 2023at CLEMIL 119 − 111
Jan 21, 2023at CLECLE 114 − 102
Dec 21, 2022at CLECLE 114 − 106

MIL · Last 10

6−4 · streak W2
Oct 24, 2025at TOR122 − 116W
Oct 22, 2025vs WSH133 − 120W
Apr 29, 2025at IND118 − 119L
Apr 27, 2025vs IND103 − 129L
Apr 25, 2025vs IND117 − 101W
Apr 22, 2025at IND115 − 123L
Apr 19, 2025at IND98 − 117L
Apr 13, 2025vs DET140 − 133W
Apr 11, 2025at DET125 − 119W
Apr 10, 2025vs NO136 − 111W

CLE · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Oct 24, 2025at BKN131 − 124W
Oct 22, 2025at NY111 − 119L
May 13, 2025vs IND105 − 114L
May 11, 2025at IND109 − 129L
May 9, 2025at IND126 − 104W
May 6, 2025vs IND119 − 120L
May 4, 2025vs IND112 − 121L
Apr 28, 2025at MIA138 − 83W
Apr 26, 2025at MIA124 − 87W
Apr 23, 2025vs MIA121 − 112W