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Knicks at Heat

NBA · Sunday, Oct 26 · 5:00 PM CT · Kaseya Center · Final NY 107 – MIA 115
← NBA / Oct 26, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
NY27272726107
MIA24333127115
Team box
NY·MIA
38-98
field goals
38-83
15-54
3-pointers
13-37
16-21
free throws
26-31
52
rebounds
50
23
assists
25
16
turnovers
16
42
points in paint
48
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Jalen BrunsonNY353757
Norman PowellMIA322973
Mikal BridgesNY372054
Bam AdebayoMIA3819133
Jaime Jaquez Jr.MIA271755
Karl-Anthony TownsNY3615182

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIA +18
NY +18
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: MIA 18 · NY 6lead changes: 13

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NY 58%, MIA 42% · Updated Oct 26, 2025

Expected margin
NY by 2.0
Expected score
NY 109.5 – 107.5 MIA
Expected total
217.0
KnicksThe matchupHeat
−140Our fair odds+140
109.5Expected points107.5
+0.44Power rating−0.14
112.0Points / game133.5
103.0Allowed / game119.5
40.5FG%51.0
36.53P%40.5
50.5Rebounds / game52.0
2−0Season record1−1
5−5Last 103−7
Mitchell RobinsonOutKasparas Jakucionis · Terry Rozier
Tyler Herro

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NY chance · MIA chance
Our model fair58.3%41.7%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NYNew York Knicks−14058%————
MIAMiami Heat+14042%————
SpreadNY by 2.0
NYNew York Knicks−2our margin————
MIAMiami Heat+2our margin————
Totalwe expect 217.0
Over217.0our total————
Under217.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

New York Knicks by 2.0 expected
New York Knicks by 42 points: <1%New York Knicks by 41 points: <1%New York Knicks by 40 points: <1%New York Knicks by 39 points: <1%New York Knicks by 38 points: <1%New York Knicks by 37 points: <1%New York Knicks by 36 points: <1%New York Knicks by 35 points: <1%New York Knicks by 34 points: <1%New York Knicks by 33 points: <1%New York Knicks by 32 points: <1%New York Knicks by 31 points: <1%New York Knicks by 30 points: <1%New York Knicks by 29 points: 1%New York Knicks by 28 points: 1%New York Knicks by 27 points: 1%New York Knicks by 26 points: 1%New York Knicks by 25 points: 1%New York Knicks by 24 points: 1%New York Knicks by 23 points: 1%New York Knicks by 22 points: 1%New York Knicks by 21 points: 1%New York Knicks by 20 points: 1%New York Knicks by 19 points: 1%New York Knicks by 18 points: 1%New York Knicks by 17 points: 2%New York Knicks by 16 points: 2%New York Knicks by 15 points: 2%New York Knicks by 14 points: 2%New York Knicks by 13 points: 2%New York Knicks by 12 points: 2%New York Knicks by 11 points: 2%New York Knicks by 10 points: 3%New York Knicks by 9 points: 3%New York Knicks by 8 points: 3%New York Knicks by 7 points: 3%New York Knicks by 6 points: 3%New York Knicks by 5 points: 3%New York Knicks by 4 points: 3%New York Knicks by 3 points: 3%New York Knicks by 2 points: 2%New York Knicks by 1 point: 2%Miami Heat by 1 point: 2%Miami Heat by 2 points: 2%Miami Heat by 3 points: 2%Miami Heat by 4 points: 2%Miami Heat by 5 points: 2%Miami Heat by 6 points: 3%Miami Heat by 7 points: 2%Miami Heat by 8 points: 2%Miami Heat by 9 points: 2%Miami Heat by 10 points: 2%Miami Heat by 11 points: 2%Miami Heat by 12 points: 2%Miami Heat by 13 points: 2%Miami Heat by 14 points: 2%Miami Heat by 15 points: 1%Miami Heat by 16 points: 1%Miami Heat by 17 points: 1%Miami Heat by 18 points: 1%Miami Heat by 19 points: 1%Miami Heat by 20 points: 1%Miami Heat by 21 points: 1%Miami Heat by 22 points: 1%Miami Heat by 23 points: 1%Miami Heat by 24 points: 1%Miami Heat by 25 points: <1%Miami Heat by 26 points: <1%Miami Heat by 27 points: <1%Miami Heat by 28 points: <1%Miami Heat by 29 points: <1%Miami Heat by 30 points: <1%Miami Heat by 31 points: <1%Miami Heat by 32 points: <1%Miami Heat by 33 points: <1%Miami Heat by 34 points: <1%Miami Heat by 35 points: <1%Miami Heat by 36 points: <1%Miami Heat by 37 points: <1%Miami Heat by 38 points: <1%Miami Heat by 39 points: <1%Miami Heat by 40 points: <1%Miami Heat by 41 points: <1%Miami Heat by 42 points: <1%
← NY wins byMIA wins by →
New York Knicks wins by 5 or more45%
New York Knicks wins by 10 or more31%
New York Knicks wins by 15 or more20%
Within 5 points either way25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

217.0 expected
172 points: <1%173 points: <1%174 points: <1%175 points: <1%176 points: <1%177 points: <1%178 points: <1%179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: 1%185 points: 1%186 points: 1%187 points: 1%188 points: 1%189 points: 1%190 points: 1%191 points: 1%192 points: 1%193 points: 1%194 points: 1%195 points: 1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 2%203 points: 2%204 points: 2%205 points: 2%206 points: 2%207 points: 2%208 points: 2%209 points: 2%210 points: 2%211 points: 2%212 points: 2%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 1%234 points: 1%235 points: 1%236 points: 1%237 points: 1%238 points: 1%239 points: 1%240 points: 1%241 points: 1%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: <1%250 points: <1%251 points: <1%252 points: <1%253 points: <1%254 points: <1%255 points: <1%256 points: <1%257 points: <1%258 points: <1%259 points: <1%260 points: <1%261 points: <1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 207.568%
Total over 217.548%
Total over 227.529%
Total from 208 to 22739%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
New York Knicks
GMikal Bridgesstarted
GJalen Brunsonstarted
FOG Anunobystarted
CKarl-Anthony Townsstarted
CAriel Hukportistarted
Miami Heat
GNorman Powellstarted
GDavion Mitchellstarted
FAndrew Wigginsstarted
CBam Adebayostarted
CKel'el Warestarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NY·MIA
Oct 24, 2025 vs BOS
last game
Oct 24, 2025 at MEM
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
2
games in last 7 days
2
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Oct 25, 5:00 PM ET
New York Knicks
NYMitchell Robinson · left ankle; left ankle injury managementOut
NYKarl-Anthony Towns · right quad; strainQuestionable
NYMiles McBride · personal reasonsQuestionable
NYJosh Hart · lower back; lumbar spasmsProbable
Miami Heat
MIAKasparas Jakucionis · right groin; strainOut
MIATerry Rozier · not with teamOut
MIATyler Herro · left ankle; surgeryOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 2+ games
NY·MIA
+0.44
rating (0 = average)
−0.14
112.0
points / game
133.5
103.0
points allowed / game
119.5
2−0
season record
1−1
2−0
home record
0−0
0−0
away record
1−1
W2
streak
W1
5−5
last 10
3−7
40.5
FG%
51.0
36.5
3P%
40.5
50.5
rebounds / game
52.0
22.5
assists / game
30.0
17.0
turnovers / game
19.5
36.0
points in paint / game
63.0

Rating Trend

NY · MIA · 6 days
New York KnicksMiami Heat
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MIA 4−6
Mar 17, 2025at NYNY 116 − 95
Mar 2, 2025at MIANY 116 − 112
Oct 30, 2024at MIANY 116 − 107
Apr 2, 2024at MIAMIA 109 − 99
Jan 27, 2024at NYNY 125 − 109
Nov 24, 2023at NYNY 100 − 98
May 12, 2023at MIAMIA 96 − 92post
May 10, 2023at NYNY 112 − 103post
May 8, 2023at MIAMIA 109 − 101post
May 6, 2023at MIAMIA 105 − 86post

NY · Last 10

5−5 · streak W2
Oct 24, 2025vs BOS105 − 95W
Oct 22, 2025vs CLE119 − 111W
May 31, 2025at IND108 − 125L
May 29, 2025vs IND111 − 94W
May 27, 2025at IND121 − 130L
May 25, 2025at IND106 − 100W
May 23, 2025vs IND109 − 114L
May 21, 2025vs IND135 − 138L
May 16, 2025vs BOS119 − 81W
May 14, 2025at BOS102 − 127L

MIA · Last 10

3−7 · streak W1
Oct 24, 2025at MEM146 − 114W
Oct 22, 2025at ORL121 − 125L
Apr 28, 2025vs CLE83 − 138L
Apr 26, 2025vs CLE87 − 124L
Apr 23, 2025at CLE112 − 121L
Apr 20, 2025at CLE100 − 121L
Apr 13, 2025vs WSH118 − 119L
Apr 11, 2025at NO153 − 104W
Apr 9, 2025at CHI111 − 119L
Apr 7, 2025vs PHI117 − 105W