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Raptors at Mavericks

NBA · Sunday, Oct 26 · 6:30 PM CT · American Airlines Center · Final TOR 129 – DAL 139
← NBA / Oct 26, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
TOR32342538129
DAL32323936139
Team box
TOR·DAL
49-100
field goals
50-85
13-33
3-pointers
10-26
18-24
free throws
29-39
43
rebounds
49
33
assists
32
16
turnovers
20
58
points in paint
70
Top performers
PlayerTeamMINPTSREBAST
Scottie BarnesTOR3433116
Anthony DavisDAL3525103
D'Angelo RussellDAL292456
Brandon IngramTOR322263
Cooper FlaggDAL292244
P.J. WashingtonDAL321775

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
DAL +16
TOR +16
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: DAL 16 · TOR 7lead changes: 25

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was TOR 30%, DAL 70% · Updated Oct 26, 2025

Expected margin
DAL by 6.0
Expected score
DAL 117.2 – 111.2 TOR
Expected total
228.4
RaptorsThe matchupMavericks
+231Our fair odds−231
111.2Expected points117.2
−0.59Power rating+0.03
127.0Points / game99.5
120.0Allowed / game121.0
53.0FG%40.0
32.53P%36.0
47.5Rebounds / game42.5
1−1Season record0−2
4−6Last 103−7
A.J. Lawson · Alijah Martin
Chucky HepburnOutBrandon Williams · Daniel Gafford
Dante Exum · Kyrie Irving

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
TOR chance · DAL chance
Our model fair30.2%69.8%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
TORToronto Raptors+23130%————
DALDallas Mavericks−23170%————
SpreadDAL by 6.0
TORToronto Raptors+6our margin————
DALDallas Mavericks−6our margin————
Totalwe expect 228.4
Over228.4our total————
Under228.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Dallas Mavericks by 6.0 expected
Toronto Raptors by 48 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 47 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 46 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 45 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 44 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 43 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 42 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 41 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 40 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 39 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 38 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 37 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 36 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 35 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 34 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 33 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 32 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 31 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 30 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 29 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 28 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 27 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 26 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 25 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 24 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 23 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 22 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 21 points: <1%Toronto Raptors by 20 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 19 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 18 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 17 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 16 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 15 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 14 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 13 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 12 points: 1%Toronto Raptors by 11 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 10 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 9 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 8 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 7 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 6 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 5 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 4 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 3 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 2 points: 2%Toronto Raptors by 1 point: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 1 point: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 2 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 3 points: 3%Dallas Mavericks by 4 points: 3%Dallas Mavericks by 5 points: 3%Dallas Mavericks by 6 points: 3%Dallas Mavericks by 7 points: 3%Dallas Mavericks by 8 points: 3%Dallas Mavericks by 9 points: 3%Dallas Mavericks by 10 points: 3%Dallas Mavericks by 11 points: 3%Dallas Mavericks by 12 points: 3%Dallas Mavericks by 13 points: 3%Dallas Mavericks by 14 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 15 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 16 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 17 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 18 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 19 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 20 points: 2%Dallas Mavericks by 21 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 22 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 23 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 24 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 25 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 26 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 27 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 28 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 29 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 30 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 31 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 32 points: 1%Dallas Mavericks by 33 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 34 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 35 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 36 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 37 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 38 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 39 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 40 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 41 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 42 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 43 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 44 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 45 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 46 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 47 points: <1%Dallas Mavericks by 48 points: <1%
← TOR wins byDAL wins by →
Dallas Mavericks wins by 5 or more56%
Dallas Mavericks wins by 10 or more41%
Dallas Mavericks wins by 15 or more27%
Within 5 points either way24%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Total range

228.4 expected
179 points: <1%180 points: <1%181 points: <1%182 points: <1%183 points: <1%184 points: <1%185 points: <1%186 points: <1%187 points: <1%188 points: <1%189 points: <1%190 points: <1%191 points: <1%192 points: <1%193 points: <1%194 points: <1%195 points: <1%196 points: 1%197 points: 1%198 points: 1%199 points: 1%200 points: 1%201 points: 1%202 points: 1%203 points: 1%204 points: 1%205 points: 1%206 points: 1%207 points: 1%208 points: 1%209 points: 1%210 points: 1%211 points: 1%212 points: 1%213 points: 2%214 points: 2%215 points: 2%216 points: 2%217 points: 2%218 points: 2%219 points: 2%220 points: 2%221 points: 2%222 points: 2%223 points: 2%224 points: 2%225 points: 2%226 points: 2%227 points: 2%228 points: 2%229 points: 2%230 points: 2%231 points: 2%232 points: 2%233 points: 2%234 points: 2%235 points: 2%236 points: 2%237 points: 2%238 points: 2%239 points: 2%240 points: 2%241 points: 2%242 points: 1%243 points: 1%244 points: 1%245 points: 1%246 points: 1%247 points: 1%248 points: 1%249 points: 1%250 points: 1%251 points: 1%252 points: 1%253 points: 1%254 points: 1%255 points: 1%256 points: 1%257 points: 1%258 points: 1%259 points: 1%260 points: 1%261 points: 1%262 points: <1%263 points: <1%264 points: <1%265 points: <1%266 points: <1%267 points: <1%268 points: <1%269 points: <1%270 points: <1%271 points: <1%272 points: <1%273 points: <1%274 points: <1%275 points: <1%276 points: <1%277 points: <1%278 points: <1%279 points: <1%280 points: <1%281 points: <1%282 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 218.569%
Total over 228.549%
Total over 238.530%
Total from 219 to 23839%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 6,530 past NBA games.

Starting Lineups

from the box score
Toronto Raptors
GImmanuel Quickleystarted
FBrandon Ingramstarted
FRJ Barrettstarted
FScottie Barnesstarted
CJakob Poeltlstarted
Dallas Mavericks
GKlay Thompsonstarted
FAnthony Davisstarted
FP.J. Washingtonstarted
FCooper Flaggstarted
CDereck Lively IIstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
TOR·DAL
Oct 24, 2025 vs MIL
last game
Oct 24, 2025 vs WSH
1 day
days of rest
1 day
no
back-to-back
no
2
games in last 7 days
2
road after a home game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Who's Out

NBA official injury report · Oct 26, 5:00 PM ET
Toronto Raptors
TORA.J. Lawson · g league - two-wayOut
TORAlijah Martin · g league - two-wayOut
TORChucky Hepburn · g league - two-wayOut
TORCollin Murray-Boyles · right forearm; muscle strainQuestionable
Dallas Mavericks
DALBrandon Williams · personal reasonsOut
DALDaniel Gafford · right ankle; sprainOut
DALDante Exum · right knee; injury managementOut
DALKyrie Irving · left knee; surgeryOut

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025–26 season · box-score averages from 2+ games
TOR·DAL
−0.59
rating (0 = average)
+0.03
127.0
points / game
99.5
120.0
points allowed / game
121.0
1−1
season record
0−2
0−1
home record
0−2
1−0
away record
0−0
L1
streak
L2
4−6
last 10
3−7
53.0
FG%
40.0
32.5
3P%
36.0
47.5
rebounds / game
42.5
30.5
assists / game
21.5
17.5
turnovers / game
18.5
70.0
points in paint / game
37.0

Rating Trend

TOR · DAL · 6 days
Toronto RaptorsDallas Mavericks
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 8 meetings · DAL 6−2
Apr 11, 2025at DALDAL 124 − 102
Dec 7, 2024at TORDAL 125 − 118
Feb 28, 2024at TORDAL 136 − 125
Nov 8, 2023at DALTOR 127 − 116
Nov 26, 2022at TORTOR 105 − 100
Nov 4, 2022at DALDAL 111 − 110
Jan 19, 2022at DALDAL 102 − 98
Oct 23, 2021at TORDAL 103 − 95

TOR · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Oct 24, 2025vs MIL116 − 122L
Oct 22, 2025at ATL138 − 118W
Apr 13, 2025at SA118 − 125L
Apr 11, 2025at DAL102 − 124L
Apr 9, 2025vs CHA126 − 96W
Apr 6, 2025at BKN120 − 109W
Apr 4, 2025vs DET105 − 117L
Apr 3, 2025vs POR103 − 112L
Apr 1, 2025at CHI118 − 137L
Mar 30, 2025at PHI127 − 109W

DAL · Last 10

3−7 · streak L3
Oct 24, 2025vs WSH107 − 117L
Oct 22, 2025vs SA92 − 125L
Apr 13, 2025at MEM97 − 132L
Apr 11, 2025vs TOR124 − 102W
Apr 9, 2025vs LAL97 − 112L
Apr 5, 2025at LAC104 − 135L
Apr 4, 2025at LAC91 − 114L
Apr 2, 2025vs ATL120 − 118W
Mar 31, 2025vs BKN109 − 113L
Mar 29, 2025at CHI120 − 119W