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Dolphins at Bills

NFL · Thursday, Sep 18 · 7:15 PM CT · Highmark Stadium (Old) · Final MIA 21 – BUF 31
← NFL / Sep 18, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
MIA770721
BUF7771031
Team box
MIA·BUF
276
total yards
360
146
passing yards
203
130
rushing yards
157
19
first downs
23
10-15
third downs
6-11
1
turnovers
0
28:13
time of possession
31:47
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Tua TagovailoaMIA22/3414621
Josh AllenBUF22/2821330
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
De'Von AchaneMIA12620
James Cook IIIBUF191081
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Tyreek HillMIA5491
Dalton KincaidBUF5661

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
BUF +10
MIA +10
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: BUF 10 · MIA 7lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIA 18%, BUF 82% · Updated Sep 18, 2025

Expected margin
BUF by 15.2
Expected score
BUF 34.5 – 19.4 MIA
Expected total
53.9
DolphinsThe matchupBills
+461Our fair odds−461
19.4Expected points34.5
−0.41Power rating+1.04
17.5Points / game35.5
33.0Allowed / game25.0
284Total yards / game450
5.8Yards / play6.1
215Passing yards / game284
0−2Season record2−0
5−5Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIA chance · BUF chance
Our model fair17.8%82.2%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MIAMiami Dolphins+46118%————
BUFBuffalo Bills−46182%————
SpreadBUF by 15.2
MIAMiami Dolphins+15.2our margin————
BUFBuffalo Bills−15.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 53.9
Over53.9our total————
Under53.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Buffalo Bills by 15.2 expected
Miami Dolphins by 49 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 48 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 47 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 46 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 45 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 44 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 43 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 42 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 41 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 40 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 39 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 38 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 37 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 36 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 35 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 34 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 33 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 32 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 31 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 30 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 29 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 28 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 27 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 26 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 25 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 24 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 23 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 22 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 21 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 20 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 19 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 18 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 17 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 16 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 15 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 14 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 13 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 12 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 11 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 10 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 9 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 8 points: <1%Miami Dolphins by 7 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 6 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 5 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 4 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 3 points: 4%Miami Dolphins by 2 points: 1%Miami Dolphins by 1 point: 1%Tie: <1%Buffalo Bills by 1 point: 1%Buffalo Bills by 2 points: 2%Buffalo Bills by 3 points: 5%Buffalo Bills by 4 points: 2%Buffalo Bills by 5 points: 2%Buffalo Bills by 6 points: 4%Buffalo Bills by 7 points: 4%Buffalo Bills by 8 points: 3%Buffalo Bills by 9 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 10 points: 2%Buffalo Bills by 11 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 12 points: 2%Buffalo Bills by 13 points: 2%Buffalo Bills by 14 points: 3%Buffalo Bills by 15 points: 2%Buffalo Bills by 16 points: 2%Buffalo Bills by 17 points: 5%Buffalo Bills by 18 points: 3%Buffalo Bills by 19 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 20 points: 2%Buffalo Bills by 21 points: 3%Buffalo Bills by 22 points: 2%Buffalo Bills by 23 points: 2%Buffalo Bills by 24 points: 4%Buffalo Bills by 25 points: 2%Buffalo Bills by 26 points: 2%Buffalo Bills by 27 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 28 points: 2%Buffalo Bills by 29 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 30 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 31 points: 3%Buffalo Bills by 32 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 33 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 34 points: 2%Buffalo Bills by 35 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 36 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 37 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 38 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 39 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 40 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 41 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 42 points: 1%Buffalo Bills by 43 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 44 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 45 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 46 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 47 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 48 points: <1%Buffalo Bills by 49 points: <1%
← MIA wins byBUF wins by →
Buffalo Bills wins by 3 or more82%
Buffalo Bills wins by 7 or more69%
Buffalo Bills wins by 10 or more61%
Within 3 points either way15%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

53.9 expected
18 points: <1%19 points: <1%20 points: <1%21 points: <1%22 points: <1%23 points: <1%24 points: <1%25 points: <1%26 points: 1%27 points: 1%28 points: 1%29 points: 1%30 points: 1%31 points: 1%32 points: 1%33 points: 1%34 points: 1%35 points: 1%36 points: 1%37 points: 2%38 points: 2%39 points: 2%40 points: 2%41 points: 2%42 points: 2%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 2%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 2%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 3%58 points: 2%59 points: 2%60 points: 2%61 points: 2%62 points: 2%63 points: 2%64 points: 2%65 points: 2%66 points: 2%67 points: 1%68 points: 2%69 points: 1%70 points: 1%71 points: 1%72 points: 1%73 points: 1%74 points: 1%75 points: 1%76 points: 1%77 points: 1%78 points: 1%79 points: 1%80 points: 1%81 points: 1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%85 points: <1%86 points: <1%87 points: <1%88 points: <1%89 points: <1%90 points: <1%91 points: <1%92 points: <1%93 points: <1%94 points: <1%95 points: <1%96 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 46.566%
Total over 53.549%
Total over 60.533%
Total from 47 to 6034%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
MIATua Tagovailoa · last 3 games: 70% completions, 215 yds/game, 4 TD, 3 INTstarted
BUFJosh Allen · last 3 games: 66% completions, 260 yds/game, 4 TD, 0 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIA·BUF
Sep 14, 2025 vs NE
last game
Sep 14, 2025 at NYJ
3 days
days of rest
3 days
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 2+ games
MIA·BUF
−0.41
rating (0 = average)
+1.04
17.5
points / game
35.5
33.0
points allowed / game
25.0
0−2
season record
2−0
0−1
home record
1−0
0−1
away record
1−0
L2
streak
W2
5−5
last 10
7−3
284
total yards / game
450
5.8
yards / play
6.1
215
passing yards / game
284
70
rushing yards / game
166
14.0
first downs / game
27.0
2.0
turnovers / game
0.0

Rating Trend

MIA · BUF · 4 days
Miami DolphinsBuffalo Bills
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · BUF 8−1
Nov 3, 2024at BUFBUF 30 − 27
Sep 12, 2024at MIABUF 31 − 10
Jan 7, 2024at MIABUF 21 − 14
Oct 1, 2023at BUFBUF 48 − 20
Jan 15, 2023at BUFBUF 34 − 31post
Dec 17, 2022at BUFBUF 32 − 29
Sep 25, 2022at MIAMIA 21 − 19
Oct 31, 2021at BUFBUF 26 − 11
Sep 19, 2021at MIABUF 35 − 0

MIA · Last 10

5−5 · streak L3
Sep 14, 2025vs NE27 − 33L
Sep 7, 2025at IND8 − 33L
Jan 5, 2025at NYJ20 − 32L
Dec 29, 2024at CLE20 − 3W
Dec 22, 2024vs SF29 − 17W
Dec 15, 2024at HOU12 − 20L
Dec 8, 2024vs NYJ32 − 26W
Nov 28, 2024at GB17 − 30L
Nov 24, 2024vs NE34 − 15W
Nov 17, 2024vs LV34 − 19W

BUF · Last 10

7−3 · streak W2
Sep 14, 2025at NYJ30 − 10W
Sep 7, 2025vs BAL41 − 40W
Jan 26, 2025at KC29 − 32L
Jan 19, 2025vs BAL27 − 25W
Jan 12, 2025vs DEN31 − 7W
Jan 5, 2025at NE16 − 23L
Dec 29, 2024vs NYJ40 − 14W
Dec 22, 2024vs NE24 − 21W
Dec 15, 2024at DET48 − 42W
Dec 8, 2024at LAR42 − 44L