bayesRatings

Cardinals at 49ers

NFL · Sunday, Sep 21 · 3:25 PM CT · Levi's Stadium · Final ARI 15 – SF 16
← NFL / Sep 21, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
ARI033915
SF0601016
Team box
ARI·SF
260
total yards
355
154
passing yards
282
106
rushing yards
73
16
first downs
19
5-15
third downs
2-10
0
turnovers
1
34:39
time of possession
25:21
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Kyler MurrayARI22/3515910
Mac JonesSF27/4128411
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Trey BensonARI10420
Christian McCaffreySF17520
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Marvin Harrison Jr.ARI3440
Ricky PearsallSF81170

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
SF +7
ARI +7
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: SF 7 · ARI 3lead changes: 3

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ARI 42%, SF 58% · Updated Sep 21, 2025

Expected margin
SF by 2.1
Expected score
SF 23.8 – 21.6 ARI
Expected total
45.4
CardinalsThe matchup49ers
+139Our fair odds−139
21.6Expected points23.8
+0.05Power rating+0.18
23.5Points / game21.5
17.5Allowed / game17.0
284Total yards / game364
5.3Yards / play5.2
170Passing yards / game266
2−0Season record2−0
5−5Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ARI chance · SF chance
Our model fair41.8%58.2%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ARIArizona Cardinals+13942%————
SFSan Francisco 49ers−13958%————
SpreadSF by 2.1
ARIArizona Cardinals+2.1our margin————
SFSan Francisco 49ers−2.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 45.4
Over45.4our total————
Under45.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

San Francisco 49ers by 2.1 expected
Arizona Cardinals by 42 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 41 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 40 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 39 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 38 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 37 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 36 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 35 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 34 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 33 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 32 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 31 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 30 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 29 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 28 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 27 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 26 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 25 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 24 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 23 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 22 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 21 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 20 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 19 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 18 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 17 points: 2%Arizona Cardinals by 16 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 15 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 14 points: 3%Arizona Cardinals by 13 points: <1%Arizona Cardinals by 12 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 11 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 10 points: 2%Arizona Cardinals by 9 points: 1%Arizona Cardinals by 8 points: 2%Arizona Cardinals by 7 points: 4%Arizona Cardinals by 6 points: 3%Arizona Cardinals by 5 points: 3%Arizona Cardinals by 4 points: 3%Arizona Cardinals by 3 points: 8%Arizona Cardinals by 2 points: 2%Arizona Cardinals by 1 point: 3%Tie: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 1 point: 2%San Francisco 49ers by 2 points: 3%San Francisco 49ers by 3 points: 7%San Francisco 49ers by 4 points: 2%San Francisco 49ers by 5 points: 2%San Francisco 49ers by 6 points: 4%San Francisco 49ers by 7 points: 4%San Francisco 49ers by 8 points: 3%San Francisco 49ers by 9 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 10 points: 2%San Francisco 49ers by 11 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 12 points: 2%San Francisco 49ers by 13 points: 2%San Francisco 49ers by 14 points: 2%San Francisco 49ers by 15 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 16 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 17 points: 2%San Francisco 49ers by 18 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 19 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 20 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 21 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 22 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 23 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 24 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 25 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 26 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 27 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 28 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 29 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 30 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 31 points: 1%San Francisco 49ers by 32 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 33 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 34 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 35 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 36 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 37 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 38 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 39 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 40 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 41 points: <1%San Francisco 49ers by 42 points: <1%
← ARI wins bySF wins by →
San Francisco 49ers wins by 3 or more49%
San Francisco 49ers wins by 7 or more33%
San Francisco 49ers wins by 10 or more25%
Within 3 points either way26%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

45.4 expected
11 points: <1%12 points: <1%13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: <1%17 points: <1%18 points: <1%19 points: 1%20 points: <1%21 points: 1%22 points: 1%23 points: 1%24 points: 1%25 points: 1%26 points: 1%27 points: 1%28 points: 1%29 points: 2%30 points: 2%31 points: 2%32 points: 2%33 points: 2%34 points: 2%35 points: 2%36 points: 3%37 points: 3%38 points: 2%39 points: 3%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 3%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 3%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 2%58 points: 2%59 points: 2%60 points: 1%61 points: 1%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: 1%67 points: 1%68 points: 1%69 points: 1%70 points: 1%71 points: 1%72 points: <1%73 points: 1%74 points: <1%75 points: <1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%79 points: <1%80 points: <1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%85 points: <1%86 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 38.567%
Total over 45.547%
Total over 52.529%
Total from 39 to 5238%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
ARIKyler Murray · last 3 games: 71% completions, 208 yds/game, 7 TD, 1 INTstarted
SFMac Jones · last 3 games: 66% completions, 226 yds/game, 6 TD, 1 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ARI·SF
Sep 14, 2025 vs CAR
last game
Sep 14, 2025 at NO
6 days
days of rest
6 days
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 2+ games
ARI·SF
+0.05
rating (0 = average)
+0.18
23.5
points / game
21.5
17.5
points allowed / game
17.0
2−0
season record
2−0
1−0
home record
0−0
1−0
away record
2−0
W2
streak
W2
5−5
last 10
3−7
284
total yards / game
364
5.3
yards / play
5.2
170
passing yards / game
266
114
rushing yards / game
98
17.5
first downs / game
23.5
0.5
turnovers / game
1.5

Rating Trend

ARI · SF · 5 days
Arizona CardinalsSan Francisco 49ers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 8 meetings · SF 4−4
Jan 5, 2025at ARIARI 47 − 24
Oct 6, 2024at SFARI 24 − 23
Dec 17, 2023at ARISF 45 − 29
Oct 1, 2023at SFSF 35 − 16
Jan 8, 2023at SFSF 38 − 13
Nov 21, 2022at ARISF 38 − 10
Nov 7, 2021at SFARI 31 − 17
Oct 10, 2021at ARIARI 17 − 10

ARI · Last 10

5−5 · streak W3
Sep 14, 2025vs CAR27 − 22W
Sep 7, 2025at NO20 − 13W
Jan 5, 2025vs SF47 − 24W
Dec 28, 2024at LAR9 − 13L
Dec 22, 2024at CAR30 − 36L
Dec 15, 2024vs NE30 − 17W
Dec 8, 2024vs SEA18 − 30L
Dec 1, 2024at MIN22 − 23L
Nov 24, 2024at SEA6 − 16L
Nov 10, 2024vs NYJ31 − 6W

SF · Last 10

3−7 · streak W2
Sep 14, 2025at NO26 − 21W
Sep 7, 2025at SEA17 − 13W
Jan 5, 2025at ARI24 − 47L
Dec 30, 2024vs DET34 − 40L
Dec 22, 2024at MIA17 − 29L
Dec 12, 2024vs LAR6 − 12L
Dec 8, 2024vs CHI38 − 13W
Dec 1, 2024at BUF10 − 35L
Nov 24, 2024at GB10 − 38L
Nov 17, 2024vs SEA17 − 20L