bayesRatings

Falcons at Panthers

NFL · Sunday, Sep 21 · 12:00 PM CT · Bank of America Stadium · Final ATL 0 – CAR 30
← NFL / Sep 21, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
ATL00000
CAR73101030
Team box
ATL·CAR
332
total yards
224
201
passing yards
114
131
rushing yards
110
17
first downs
15
5-13
third downs
3-11
3
turnovers
1
28:02
time of possession
31:58
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Michael Penix Jr.ATL18/3617202
Bryce YoungCAR16/2412100
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Bijan RobinsonATL13720
Chuba HubbardCAR17730
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Drake LondonATL5550
Tetairoa McMillanCAR3480

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CAR +30
ATL +30
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: CAR 30 · ATL 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ATL 67%, CAR 33% · Updated Sep 21, 2025

Expected margin
ATL by 7.3
Expected score
ATL 26.6 – 19.4 CAR
Expected total
46.0
FalconsThe matchupPanthers
−206Our fair odds+206
26.6Expected points19.4
−0.06Power rating−1.09
21.0Points / game16.0
14.5Allowed / game26.5
342Total yards / game304
5.1Yards / play4.4
198Passing yards / game222
1−1Season record0−2
3−7Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ATL chance · CAR chance
Our model fair67.3%32.7%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ATLAtlanta Falcons−20667%————
CARCarolina Panthers+20633%————
SpreadATL by 7.3
ATLAtlanta Falcons−7.3our margin————
CARCarolina Panthers+7.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 46.0
Over46.0our total————
Under46.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Atlanta Falcons by 7.3 expected
Atlanta Falcons by 40 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 39 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 38 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 37 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 36 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 35 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 34 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 33 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 32 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 31 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 30 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 29 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 28 points: 2%Atlanta Falcons by 27 points: <1%Atlanta Falcons by 26 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 25 points: 2%Atlanta Falcons by 24 points: 2%Atlanta Falcons by 23 points: 2%Atlanta Falcons by 22 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 21 points: 2%Atlanta Falcons by 20 points: 2%Atlanta Falcons by 19 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 18 points: 2%Atlanta Falcons by 17 points: 3%Atlanta Falcons by 16 points: 2%Atlanta Falcons by 15 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 14 points: 5%Atlanta Falcons by 13 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 12 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 11 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 10 points: 3%Atlanta Falcons by 9 points: 1%Atlanta Falcons by 8 points: 2%Atlanta Falcons by 7 points: 5%Atlanta Falcons by 6 points: 3%Atlanta Falcons by 5 points: 3%Atlanta Falcons by 4 points: 3%Atlanta Falcons by 3 points: 8%Atlanta Falcons by 2 points: 2%Atlanta Falcons by 1 point: 2%Tie: <1%Carolina Panthers by 1 point: 2%Carolina Panthers by 2 points: 2%Carolina Panthers by 3 points: 5%Carolina Panthers by 4 points: 2%Carolina Panthers by 5 points: 1%Carolina Panthers by 6 points: 3%Carolina Panthers by 7 points: 2%Carolina Panthers by 8 points: 2%Carolina Panthers by 9 points: 1%Carolina Panthers by 10 points: 1%Carolina Panthers by 11 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 12 points: 1%Carolina Panthers by 13 points: 1%Carolina Panthers by 14 points: 1%Carolina Panthers by 15 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 16 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 17 points: 1%Carolina Panthers by 18 points: 1%Carolina Panthers by 19 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 20 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 21 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 22 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 23 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 24 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 25 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 26 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 27 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 28 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 29 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 30 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 31 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 32 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 33 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 34 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 35 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 36 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 37 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 38 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 39 points: <1%Carolina Panthers by 40 points: <1%
← ATL wins byCAR wins by →
Atlanta Falcons wins by 3 or more66%
Atlanta Falcons wins by 7 or more49%
Atlanta Falcons wins by 10 or more41%
Within 3 points either way22%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

46.0 expected
12 points: <1%13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: <1%17 points: <1%18 points: <1%19 points: 1%20 points: <1%21 points: <1%22 points: 1%23 points: 1%24 points: 1%25 points: 1%26 points: 1%27 points: 1%28 points: 1%29 points: 2%30 points: 2%31 points: 2%32 points: 2%33 points: 2%34 points: 2%35 points: 2%36 points: 2%37 points: 3%38 points: 2%39 points: 3%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 3%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 3%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 2%58 points: 2%59 points: 2%60 points: 2%61 points: 1%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: 1%67 points: 1%68 points: 1%69 points: 1%70 points: 1%71 points: 1%72 points: <1%73 points: 1%74 points: <1%75 points: <1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%79 points: <1%80 points: <1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%85 points: <1%86 points: <1%87 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 39.566%
Total over 46.546%
Total over 53.529%
Total from 40 to 5338%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
ATLMichael Penix Jr. · last 3 games: 60% completions, 248 yds/game, 3 TD, 1 INTstarted
CARBryce Young · last 3 games: 63% completions, 244 yds/game, 7 TD, 3 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ATL·CAR
Sep 14, 2025 at MIN
last game
Sep 14, 2025 at ARI
6 days
days of rest
6 days
2nd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 2+ games
ATL·CAR
−0.06
rating (0 = average)
−1.09
21.0
points / game
16.0
14.5
points allowed / game
26.5
1−1
season record
0−2
0−1
home record
0−0
1−0
away record
0−2
W1
streak
L2
3−7
last 10
3−7
342
total yards / game
304
5.1
yards / play
4.4
198
passing yards / game
222
144
rushing yards / game
81
21.0
first downs / game
20.5
0.5
turnovers / game
2.5

Rating Trend

ATL · CAR · 5 days
Atlanta FalconsCarolina Panthers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 8 meetings · CAR 4−4
Jan 5, 2025at ATLCAR 44 − 38
Oct 13, 2024at CARATL 38 − 20
Dec 17, 2023at CARCAR 9 − 7
Sep 10, 2023at ATLATL 24 − 10
Nov 10, 2022at CARCAR 25 − 15
Oct 30, 2022at ATLATL 37 − 34
Dec 12, 2021at CARATL 29 − 21
Oct 31, 2021at ATLCAR 19 − 13

ATL · Last 10

3−7 · streak W1
Sep 14, 2025at MIN22 − 6W
Sep 7, 2025vs TB20 − 23L
Jan 5, 2025vs CAR38 − 44L
Dec 29, 2024at WSH24 − 30L
Dec 22, 2024vs NYG34 − 7W
Dec 16, 2024at LV15 − 9W
Dec 8, 2024at MIN21 − 42L
Dec 1, 2024vs LAC13 − 17L
Nov 17, 2024at DEN6 − 38L
Nov 10, 2024at NO17 − 20L

CAR · Last 10

3−7 · streak L2
Sep 14, 2025at ARI22 − 27L
Sep 7, 2025at JAX10 − 26L
Jan 5, 2025at ATL44 − 38W
Dec 29, 2024at TB14 − 48L
Dec 22, 2024vs ARI36 − 30W
Dec 15, 2024vs DAL14 − 30L
Dec 8, 2024at PHI16 − 22L
Dec 1, 2024vs TB23 − 26L
Nov 24, 2024vs KC27 − 30L
Nov 10, 2024vs NYG20 − 17W