bayesRatings

Bengals at Vikings

NFL · Sunday, Sep 21 · 12:00 PM CT · U.S. Bank Stadium · Final CIN 10 – MIN 48
← NFL / Sep 21, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
CIN030710
MIN142014048
Team box
CIN·MIN
171
total yards
352
118
passing yards
183
53
rushing yards
169
12
first downs
22
3-11
third downs
4-12
5
turnovers
0
29:04
time of possession
30:56
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Jake BrowningCIN19/2714012
Carson WentzMIN14/2017320
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Samaje PerineCIN4210
Jordan MasonMIN161162
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Ja'Marr ChaseCIN5500
Justin JeffersonMIN5750

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIN +45
CIN +45
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: MIN 45 · CIN 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CIN 44%, MIN 56% · Updated Sep 21, 2025

Expected margin
MIN by 1.6
Expected score
MIN 23.8 – 22.1 CIN
Expected total
45.9
BengalsThe matchupVikings
+128Our fair odds−128
22.1Expected points23.8
+0.20Power rating+0.23
24.0Points / game16.5
21.5Allowed / game23.0
246Total yards / game226
4.2Yards / play4.8
198Passing yards / game127
2−0Season record1−1
7−3Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CIN chance · MIN chance
Our model fair43.9%56.1%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CINCincinnati Bengals+12844%————
MINMinnesota Vikings−12856%————
SpreadMIN by 1.6
CINCincinnati Bengals+1.6our margin————
MINMinnesota Vikings−1.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 45.9
Over45.9our total————
Under45.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Minnesota Vikings by 1.6 expected
Cincinnati Bengals by 41 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 40 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 39 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 38 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 37 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 36 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 35 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 34 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 33 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 32 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 31 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 30 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 29 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 28 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 27 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 26 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 25 points: <1%Cincinnati Bengals by 24 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 23 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 22 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 21 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 20 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 19 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 18 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 17 points: 2%Cincinnati Bengals by 16 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 15 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 14 points: 3%Cincinnati Bengals by 13 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 12 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 11 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 10 points: 3%Cincinnati Bengals by 9 points: 1%Cincinnati Bengals by 8 points: 2%Cincinnati Bengals by 7 points: 4%Cincinnati Bengals by 6 points: 3%Cincinnati Bengals by 5 points: 3%Cincinnati Bengals by 4 points: 3%Cincinnati Bengals by 3 points: 8%Cincinnati Bengals by 2 points: 2%Cincinnati Bengals by 1 point: 3%Tie: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 1 point: 2%Minnesota Vikings by 2 points: 3%Minnesota Vikings by 3 points: 7%Minnesota Vikings by 4 points: 2%Minnesota Vikings by 5 points: 2%Minnesota Vikings by 6 points: 4%Minnesota Vikings by 7 points: 4%Minnesota Vikings by 8 points: 3%Minnesota Vikings by 9 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 10 points: 2%Minnesota Vikings by 11 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 12 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 13 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 14 points: 2%Minnesota Vikings by 15 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 16 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 17 points: 2%Minnesota Vikings by 18 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 19 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 20 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 21 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 22 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 23 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 24 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 25 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 26 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 27 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 28 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 29 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 30 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 31 points: 1%Minnesota Vikings by 32 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 33 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 34 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 35 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 36 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 37 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 38 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 39 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 40 points: <1%Minnesota Vikings by 41 points: <1%
← CIN wins byMIN wins by →
Minnesota Vikings wins by 3 or more47%
Minnesota Vikings wins by 7 or more31%
Minnesota Vikings wins by 10 or more24%
Within 3 points either way26%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

45.9 expected
12 points: <1%13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: <1%17 points: <1%18 points: <1%19 points: 1%20 points: <1%21 points: <1%22 points: 1%23 points: 1%24 points: 1%25 points: 1%26 points: 1%27 points: 1%28 points: 1%29 points: 2%30 points: 2%31 points: 2%32 points: 2%33 points: 2%34 points: 2%35 points: 2%36 points: 2%37 points: 3%38 points: 2%39 points: 3%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 3%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 3%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 2%58 points: 2%59 points: 2%60 points: 2%61 points: 1%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: 1%67 points: 1%68 points: 1%69 points: 1%70 points: 1%71 points: 1%72 points: <1%73 points: 1%74 points: <1%75 points: <1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%79 points: <1%80 points: <1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%85 points: <1%86 points: <1%87 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 38.568%
Total over 45.548%
Total over 52.530%
Total from 39 to 5238%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
CINJake Browning · last 3 games: 65% completions, 198 yds/game, 6 TD, 4 INTstarted
MINCarson Wentz · last 3 games: 67% completions, 94 yds/game, 2 TD, 1 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CIN·MIN
Sep 14, 2025 vs JAX
last game
Sep 14, 2025 vs ATL
6 days
days of rest
6 days
road after a home game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 2+ games
CIN·MIN
+0.20
rating (0 = average)
+0.23
24.0
points / game
16.5
21.5
points allowed / game
23.0
2−0
season record
1−1
1−0
home record
0−1
1−0
away record
1−0
W2
streak
L1
7−3
last 10
7−3
246
total yards / game
226
4.2
yards / play
4.8
198
passing yards / game
127
47
rushing yards / game
99
17.5
first downs / game
12.0
1.5
turnovers / game
2.5

Rating Trend

CIN · MIN · 5 days
Cincinnati BengalsMinnesota Vikings
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 2 meetings · MIN 0−2
Dec 16, 2023at CINCIN 27 − 24
Sep 12, 2021at CINCIN 27 − 24

CIN · Last 10

7−3 · streak W7
Sep 14, 2025vs JAX31 − 27W
Sep 7, 2025at CLE17 − 16W
Jan 4, 2025at PIT19 − 17W
Dec 28, 2024vs DEN30 − 24W
Dec 22, 2024vs CLE24 − 6W
Dec 15, 2024at TEN37 − 27W
Dec 9, 2024at DAL27 − 20W
Dec 1, 2024vs PIT38 − 44L
Nov 17, 2024at LAC27 − 34L
Nov 7, 2024at BAL34 − 35L

MIN · Last 10

7−3 · streak L1
Sep 14, 2025vs ATL6 − 22L
Sep 8, 2025at CHI27 − 24W
Jan 13, 2025at LAR9 − 27L
Jan 5, 2025at DET9 − 31L
Dec 29, 2024vs GB27 − 25W
Dec 22, 2024at SEA27 − 24W
Dec 16, 2024vs CHI30 − 12W
Dec 8, 2024vs ATL42 − 21W
Dec 1, 2024vs ARI23 − 22W
Nov 24, 2024at CHI30 − 27W