bayesRatings

Cowboys at Bears

NFL · Sunday, Sep 21 · 3:25 PM CT · Soldier Field · Final DAL 14 – CHI 31
← NFL / Sep 21, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
DAL3110014
CHI14107031
Team box
DAL·CHI
396
total yards
385
275
passing yards
298
121
rushing yards
87
23
first downs
19
3-11
third downs
8-14
4
turnovers
0
32:58
time of possession
27:02
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Dak PrescottDAL31/4025112
Caleb WilliamsCHI19/2829840
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Javonte WilliamsDAL10760
D'Andre SwiftCHI13330
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Jake FergusonDAL13820
Luther Burden IIICHI31011

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CHI +17
DAL +17
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: CHI 17 · DAL 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was DAL 55%, CHI 45% · Updated Sep 21, 2025

Expected margin
DAL by 0.9
Expected score
DAL 25.3 – 24.4 CHI
Expected total
49.8
CowboysThe matchupBears
−122Our fair odds+122
25.3Expected points24.4
−0.13Power rating−0.58
30.0Points / game22.5
30.5Allowed / game39.5
392Total yards / game328
5.7Yards / play5.2
266Passing yards / game202
1−1Season record0−2
5−5Last 101−9

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
DAL chance · CHI chance
Our model fair54.9%45.1%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
DALDallas Cowboys−12255%————
CHIChicago Bears+12245%————
SpreadDAL by 0.9
DALDallas Cowboys−0.9our margin————
CHIChicago Bears+0.9our margin————
Totalwe expect 49.8
Over49.8our total————
Under49.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Dallas Cowboys by 0.9 expected
Dallas Cowboys by 38 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 37 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 36 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 35 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 34 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 33 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 32 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 31 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 30 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 29 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 28 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 27 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 26 points: <1%Dallas Cowboys by 25 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 24 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 23 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 22 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 21 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 20 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 19 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 18 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 17 points: 2%Dallas Cowboys by 16 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 15 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 14 points: 3%Dallas Cowboys by 13 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 12 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 11 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 10 points: 3%Dallas Cowboys by 9 points: 1%Dallas Cowboys by 8 points: 2%Dallas Cowboys by 7 points: 5%Dallas Cowboys by 6 points: 3%Dallas Cowboys by 5 points: 3%Dallas Cowboys by 4 points: 3%Dallas Cowboys by 3 points: 9%Dallas Cowboys by 2 points: 2%Dallas Cowboys by 1 point: 3%Tie: <1%Chicago Bears by 1 point: 2%Chicago Bears by 2 points: 3%Chicago Bears by 3 points: 7%Chicago Bears by 4 points: 2%Chicago Bears by 5 points: 2%Chicago Bears by 6 points: 4%Chicago Bears by 7 points: 4%Chicago Bears by 8 points: 3%Chicago Bears by 9 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 10 points: 2%Chicago Bears by 11 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 12 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 13 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 14 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 15 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 16 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 17 points: 2%Chicago Bears by 18 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 19 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 20 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 21 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 22 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 23 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 24 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 25 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 26 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 27 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 28 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 29 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 30 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 31 points: 1%Chicago Bears by 32 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 33 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 34 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 35 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 36 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 37 points: <1%Chicago Bears by 38 points: <1%
← DAL wins byCHI wins by →
Dallas Cowboys wins by 3 or more49%
Dallas Cowboys wins by 7 or more30%
Dallas Cowboys wins by 10 or more23%
Within 3 points either way27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

49.8 expected
15 points: <1%16 points: <1%17 points: <1%18 points: <1%19 points: <1%20 points: <1%21 points: <1%22 points: <1%23 points: 1%24 points: 1%25 points: 1%26 points: 1%27 points: 1%28 points: 1%29 points: 1%30 points: 1%31 points: 1%32 points: 1%33 points: 2%34 points: 2%35 points: 2%36 points: 2%37 points: 2%38 points: 2%39 points: 2%40 points: 2%41 points: 3%42 points: 2%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 3%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 2%58 points: 2%59 points: 2%60 points: 2%61 points: 2%62 points: 2%63 points: 2%64 points: 1%65 points: 2%66 points: 1%67 points: 1%68 points: 1%69 points: 1%70 points: 1%71 points: 1%72 points: 1%73 points: 1%74 points: 1%75 points: 1%76 points: 1%77 points: 1%78 points: 1%79 points: <1%80 points: 1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%85 points: <1%86 points: <1%87 points: <1%88 points: <1%89 points: <1%90 points: <1%91 points: <1%92 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 42.567%
Total over 49.548%
Total over 56.532%
Total from 43 to 5636%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
DALDak Prescott · last 3 games: 70% completions, 227 yds/game, 3 TD, 1 INTstarted
CHICaleb Williams · last 3 games: 65% completions, 188 yds/game, 4 TD, 1 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
DAL·CHI
Sep 14, 2025 vs NYG
last game
Sep 14, 2025 at DET
6 days
days of rest
6 days
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 2+ games
DAL·CHI
−0.13
rating (0 = average)
−0.58
30.0
points / game
22.5
30.5
points allowed / game
39.5
1−1
season record
0−2
1−0
home record
0−1
0−1
away record
0−1
W1
streak
L2
5−5
last 10
1−9
392
total yards / game
328
5.7
yards / play
5.2
266
passing yards / game
202
127
rushing yards / game
126
27.0
first downs / game
19.5
1.0
turnovers / game
1.5

Rating Trend

DAL · CHI · 5 days
Dallas CowboysChicago Bears
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 1 meeting · CHI 0−1
Oct 30, 2022at DALDAL 49 − 29

DAL · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Sep 14, 2025vs NYG40 − 37W
Sep 4, 2025at PHI20 − 24L
Jan 5, 2025vs WSH19 − 23L
Dec 29, 2024at PHI7 − 41L
Dec 22, 2024vs TB26 − 24W
Dec 15, 2024at CAR30 − 14W
Dec 9, 2024vs CIN20 − 27L
Nov 28, 2024vs NYG27 − 20W
Nov 24, 2024at WSH34 − 26W
Nov 18, 2024vs HOU10 − 34L

CHI · Last 10

1−9 · streak L2
Sep 14, 2025at DET21 − 52L
Sep 8, 2025vs MIN24 − 27L
Jan 5, 2025at GB24 − 22W
Dec 26, 2024vs SEA3 − 6L
Dec 22, 2024vs DET17 − 34L
Dec 16, 2024at MIN12 − 30L
Dec 8, 2024at SF13 − 38L
Nov 28, 2024at DET20 − 23L
Nov 24, 2024vs MIN27 − 30L
Nov 17, 2024vs GB19 − 20L