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Broncos at Chargers

NFL · Sunday, Sep 21 · 3:05 PM CT · SoFi Stadium · Final DEN 20 – LAC 23
← NFL / Sep 21, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
DEN0710320
LAC3731023
Team box
DEN·LAC
265
total yards
376
147
passing yards
270
118
rushing yards
106
9
first downs
29
2-13
third downs
8-17
0
turnovers
2
23:40
time of possession
36:20
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Bo NixDEN14/2515310
Justin HerbertLAC28/4730011
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
J.K. DobbinsDEN11831
Omarion HamptonLAC19701
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Courtland SuttonDEN61181
Quentin JohnstonLAC6890

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
LAC +10
DEN +10
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: LAC 10 · DEN 7lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was DEN 40%, LAC 60% · Updated Sep 21, 2025

Expected margin
LAC by 2.2
Expected score
LAC 21.0 – 18.8 DEN
Expected total
39.7
BroncosThe matchupChargers
+150Our fair odds−150
18.8Expected points21.0
+0.19Power rating+0.40
24.0Points / game23.5
20.5Allowed / game15.0
320Total yards / game356
5.2Yards / play6.1
186Passing yards / game270
1−1Season record2−0
6−4Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
DEN chance · LAC chance
Our model fair40.0%60.0%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
DENDenver Broncos+15040%————
LACLos Angeles Chargers−15060%————
SpreadLAC by 2.2
DENDenver Broncos+2.2our margin————
LACLos Angeles Chargers−2.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 39.7
Over39.7our total————
Under39.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Los Angeles Chargers by 2.2 expected
Denver Broncos by 42 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 41 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 40 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 39 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 38 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 37 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 36 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 35 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 34 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 33 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 32 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 31 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 30 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 29 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 28 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 27 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 26 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 25 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 24 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 23 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 22 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 21 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 20 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 19 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 18 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 17 points: 2%Denver Broncos by 16 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 15 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 14 points: 3%Denver Broncos by 13 points: <1%Denver Broncos by 12 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 11 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 10 points: 2%Denver Broncos by 9 points: 1%Denver Broncos by 8 points: 2%Denver Broncos by 7 points: 4%Denver Broncos by 6 points: 3%Denver Broncos by 5 points: 3%Denver Broncos by 4 points: 3%Denver Broncos by 3 points: 8%Denver Broncos by 2 points: 2%Denver Broncos by 1 point: 3%Tie: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 1 point: 2%Los Angeles Chargers by 2 points: 3%Los Angeles Chargers by 3 points: 7%Los Angeles Chargers by 4 points: 2%Los Angeles Chargers by 5 points: 2%Los Angeles Chargers by 6 points: 4%Los Angeles Chargers by 7 points: 4%Los Angeles Chargers by 8 points: 3%Los Angeles Chargers by 9 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 10 points: 2%Los Angeles Chargers by 11 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 12 points: 2%Los Angeles Chargers by 13 points: 2%Los Angeles Chargers by 14 points: 2%Los Angeles Chargers by 15 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 16 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 17 points: 2%Los Angeles Chargers by 18 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 19 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 20 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 21 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 22 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 23 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 24 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 25 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 26 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 27 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 28 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 29 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 30 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 31 points: 1%Los Angeles Chargers by 32 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 33 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 34 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 35 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 36 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 37 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 38 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 39 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 40 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 41 points: <1%Los Angeles Chargers by 42 points: <1%
← DEN wins byLAC wins by →
Los Angeles Chargers wins by 3 or more49%
Los Angeles Chargers wins by 7 or more33%
Los Angeles Chargers wins by 10 or more25%
Within 3 points either way26%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

39.7 expected
6 points: <1%7 points: <1%8 points: <1%9 points: <1%10 points: <1%11 points: <1%12 points: <1%13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: 1%17 points: 1%18 points: 1%19 points: 1%20 points: 1%21 points: 1%22 points: 1%23 points: 2%24 points: 1%25 points: 2%26 points: 2%27 points: 2%28 points: 2%29 points: 2%30 points: 3%31 points: 2%32 points: 3%33 points: 3%34 points: 3%35 points: 3%36 points: 3%37 points: 3%38 points: 3%39 points: 3%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 3%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 2%47 points: 2%48 points: 2%49 points: 2%50 points: 2%51 points: 2%52 points: 2%53 points: 1%54 points: 2%55 points: 1%56 points: 1%57 points: 1%58 points: 1%59 points: 1%60 points: 1%61 points: 1%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: <1%67 points: <1%68 points: <1%69 points: <1%70 points: <1%71 points: <1%72 points: <1%73 points: <1%74 points: <1%75 points: <1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%79 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 32.570%
Total over 39.549%
Total over 46.529%
Total from 33 to 4641%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
DENBo Nix · last 3 games: 65% completions, 175 yds/game, 5 TD, 3 INTstarted
LACJustin Herbert · last 3 games: 62% completions, 267 yds/game, 6 TD, 4 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
DEN·LAC
Sep 14, 2025 at IND
last game
Sep 15, 2025 at LV
6 days
days of rest
5 days
2nd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 2+ games
DEN·LAC
+0.19
rating (0 = average)
+0.40
24.0
points / game
23.5
20.5
points allowed / game
15.0
1−1
season record
2−0
1−0
home record
1−0
0−1
away record
1−0
L1
streak
W2
6−4
last 10
6−4
320
total yards / game
356
5.2
yards / play
6.1
186
passing yards / game
270
134
rushing yards / game
86
21.5
first downs / game
18.5
2.5
turnovers / game
0.5

Rating Trend

DEN · LAC · 5 days
Denver BroncosLos Angeles Chargers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 8 meetings · LAC 4−4
Dec 19, 2024at LACLAC 34 − 27
Oct 13, 2024at DENLAC 23 − 16
Dec 31, 2023at DENDEN 16 − 9
Dec 10, 2023at LACDEN 24 − 7
Jan 8, 2023at DENDEN 31 − 28
Oct 17, 2022at LACLAC 19 − 16
Jan 2, 2022at LACLAC 34 − 13
Nov 28, 2021at DENDEN 28 − 13

DEN · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Sep 14, 2025at IND28 − 29L
Sep 7, 2025vs TEN20 − 12W
Jan 12, 2025at BUF7 − 31L
Jan 5, 2025vs KC38 − 0W
Dec 28, 2024at CIN24 − 30L
Dec 19, 2024at LAC27 − 34L
Dec 15, 2024vs IND31 − 13W
Dec 2, 2024vs CLE41 − 32W
Nov 24, 2024at LV29 − 19W
Nov 17, 2024vs ATL38 − 6W

LAC · Last 10

6−4 · streak W2
Sep 15, 2025at LV20 − 9W
Sep 5, 2025vs KC27 − 21W
Jan 11, 2025at HOU12 − 32L
Jan 5, 2025at LV34 − 20W
Dec 28, 2024at NE40 − 7W
Dec 19, 2024vs DEN34 − 27W
Dec 15, 2024vs TB17 − 40L
Dec 8, 2024at KC17 − 19L
Dec 1, 2024at ATL17 − 13W
Nov 25, 2024vs BAL23 − 30L