bayesRatings

Packers at Browns

NFL · Sunday, Sep 21 · 12:00 PM CT · Huntington Bank Field · Final GB 10 – CLE 13
← NFL / Sep 21, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
GB037010
CLE0001313
Team box
GB·CLE
230
total yards
221
149
passing yards
125
81
rushing yards
96
14
first downs
15
10-18
third downs
4-13
1
turnovers
1
34:14
time of possession
25:46
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Jordan LoveGB18/2518311
Joe FlaccoCLE21/3614201
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Josh JacobsGB16300
Quinshon JudkinsCLE18941
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Matthew GoldenGB4520
David NjokuCLE5400

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CLE +10
GB +10
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: CLE 3 · GB 10lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was GB 78%, CLE 22% · Updated Sep 21, 2025

Expected margin
GB by 13.7
Expected score
GB 27.8 – 14.0 CLE
Expected total
41.8
PackersThe matchupBrowns
−350Our fair odds+350
27.8Expected points14.0
+0.75Power rating−0.90
27.0Points / game16.5
15.5Allowed / game29.0
335Total yards / game325
6.1Yards / play4.5
228Passing yards / game243
2−0Season record0−2
6−4Last 101−9

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
GB chance · CLE chance
Our model fair77.8%22.2%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
GBGreen Bay Packers−35078%————
CLECleveland Browns+35022%————
SpreadGB by 13.7
GBGreen Bay Packers−13.7our margin————
CLECleveland Browns+13.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 41.8
Over41.8our total————
Under41.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Green Bay Packers by 13.7 expected
Green Bay Packers by 40 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 39 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 38 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 37 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 36 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 35 points: 2%Green Bay Packers by 34 points: 3%Green Bay Packers by 33 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 32 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 31 points: 4%Green Bay Packers by 30 points: 2%Green Bay Packers by 29 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 28 points: 7%Green Bay Packers by 27 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 26 points: 2%Green Bay Packers by 25 points: 3%Green Bay Packers by 24 points: 5%Green Bay Packers by 23 points: 4%Green Bay Packers by 22 points: 2%Green Bay Packers by 21 points: 3%Green Bay Packers by 20 points: 2%Green Bay Packers by 19 points: 2%Green Bay Packers by 18 points: 2%Green Bay Packers by 17 points: 3%Green Bay Packers by 16 points: 2%Green Bay Packers by 15 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 14 points: 4%Green Bay Packers by 13 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 12 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 11 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 10 points: 2%Green Bay Packers by 9 points: <1%Green Bay Packers by 8 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 7 points: 3%Green Bay Packers by 6 points: 2%Green Bay Packers by 5 points: 2%Green Bay Packers by 4 points: 2%Green Bay Packers by 3 points: 4%Green Bay Packers by 2 points: 1%Green Bay Packers by 1 point: 1%Tie: <1%Cleveland Browns by 1 point: 1%Cleveland Browns by 2 points: 1%Cleveland Browns by 3 points: 3%Cleveland Browns by 4 points: 1%Cleveland Browns by 5 points: 1%Cleveland Browns by 6 points: 2%Cleveland Browns by 7 points: 2%Cleveland Browns by 8 points: 1%Cleveland Browns by 9 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 10 points: 1%Cleveland Browns by 11 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 12 points: 1%Cleveland Browns by 13 points: 1%Cleveland Browns by 14 points: 1%Cleveland Browns by 15 points: 1%Cleveland Browns by 16 points: 1%Cleveland Browns by 17 points: 2%Cleveland Browns by 18 points: 1%Cleveland Browns by 19 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 20 points: 1%Cleveland Browns by 21 points: 1%Cleveland Browns by 22 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 23 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 24 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 25 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 26 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 27 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 28 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 29 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 30 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 31 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 32 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 33 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 34 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 35 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 36 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 37 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 38 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 39 points: <1%Cleveland Browns by 40 points: <1%
← GB wins byCLE wins by →
Green Bay Packers wins by 3 or more76%
Green Bay Packers wins by 7 or more67%
Green Bay Packers wins by 10 or more62%
Within 3 points either way12%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

41.8 expected
8 points: <1%9 points: <1%10 points: <1%11 points: <1%12 points: <1%13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: 1%17 points: 1%18 points: <1%19 points: 1%20 points: 1%21 points: 1%22 points: 1%23 points: 1%24 points: 1%25 points: 1%26 points: 2%27 points: 2%28 points: 2%29 points: 2%30 points: 2%31 points: 2%32 points: 2%33 points: 3%34 points: 3%35 points: 3%36 points: 3%37 points: 3%38 points: 3%39 points: 3%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 3%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 2%50 points: 2%51 points: 2%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 1%57 points: 2%58 points: 1%59 points: 1%60 points: 1%61 points: 1%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: 1%67 points: <1%68 points: <1%69 points: <1%70 points: <1%71 points: <1%72 points: <1%73 points: <1%74 points: <1%75 points: <1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%79 points: <1%80 points: <1%81 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 34.569%
Total over 41.549%
Total over 48.529%
Total from 35 to 4840%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
GBJordan Love · last 3 games: 64% completions, 231 yds/game, 4 TD, 3 INTstarted
CLEJoe Flacco · last 3 games: 61% completions, 251 yds/game, 3 TD, 3 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
GB·CLE
Sep 11, 2025 vs WSH
last game
Sep 14, 2025 at BAL
9 days
days of rest
6 days
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 2+ games
GB·CLE
+0.75
rating (0 = average)
−0.90
27.0
points / game
16.5
15.5
points allowed / game
29.0
2−0
season record
0−2
2−0
home record
0−1
0−0
away record
0−1
W2
streak
L2
6−4
last 10
1−9
335
total yards / game
325
6.1
yards / play
4.5
228
passing yards / game
243
106
rushing yards / game
82
18.0
first downs / game
19.5
0.0
turnovers / game
2.0

Rating Trend

GB · CLE · 5 days
Green Bay PackersCleveland Browns
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 1 meeting · CLE 0−1
Dec 25, 2021at GBGB 24 − 22

GB · Last 10

6−4 · streak W2
Sep 11, 2025vs WSH27 − 18W
Sep 7, 2025vs DET27 − 13W
Jan 12, 2025at PHI10 − 22L
Jan 5, 2025vs CHI22 − 24L
Dec 29, 2024at MIN25 − 27L
Dec 23, 2024vs NO34 − 0W
Dec 15, 2024at SEA30 − 13W
Dec 5, 2024at DET31 − 34L
Nov 28, 2024vs MIA30 − 17W
Nov 24, 2024vs SF38 − 10W

CLE · Last 10

1−9 · streak L8
Sep 14, 2025at BAL17 − 41L
Sep 7, 2025vs CIN16 − 17L
Jan 4, 2025at BAL10 − 35L
Dec 29, 2024vs MIA3 − 20L
Dec 22, 2024at CIN6 − 24L
Dec 15, 2024vs KC7 − 21L
Dec 8, 2024at PIT14 − 27L
Dec 2, 2024at DEN32 − 41L
Nov 21, 2024vs PIT24 − 19W
Nov 17, 2024at NO14 − 35L