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Texans at Jaguars

NFL · Sunday, Sep 21 · 12:00 PM CT · EverBank Stadium · Final HOU 10 – JAX 17
← NFL / Sep 21, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
HOU030710
JAX703717
Team box
HOU·JAX
271
total yards
291
184
passing yards
205
87
rushing yards
86
13
first downs
17
4-15
third downs
4-15
3
turnovers
1
28:42
time of possession
31:18
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
C.J. StroudHOU25/3820412
Trevor LawrenceJAX20/4022201
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Nick ChubbHOU9380
Travis Etienne Jr.JAX16561
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Nico CollinsHOU81041
Brenton StrangeJAX6610

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
JAX +7
HOU +7
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: JAX 7 · HOU 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was HOU 55%, JAX 45% · Updated Sep 21, 2025

Expected margin
HOU by 2.0
Expected score
HOU 21.2 – 19.2 JAX
Expected total
40.4
TexansThe matchupJaguars
−120Our fair odds+120
21.2Expected points19.2
−0.03Power rating−0.46
14.0Points / game26.5
17.0Allowed / game20.5
266Total yards / game389
5.2Yards / play5.8
166Passing yards / game220
0−2Season record1−1
4−6Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
HOU chance · JAX chance
Our model fair54.5%45.5%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
HOUHouston Texans−12055%————
JAXJacksonville Jaguars+12045%————
SpreadHOU by 2.0
HOUHouston Texans−2our margin————
JAXJacksonville Jaguars+2our margin————
Totalwe expect 40.4
Over40.4our total————
Under40.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Houston Texans by 2.0 expected
Houston Texans by 38 points: <1%Houston Texans by 37 points: <1%Houston Texans by 36 points: <1%Houston Texans by 35 points: <1%Houston Texans by 34 points: <1%Houston Texans by 33 points: <1%Houston Texans by 32 points: <1%Houston Texans by 31 points: <1%Houston Texans by 30 points: <1%Houston Texans by 29 points: <1%Houston Texans by 28 points: 1%Houston Texans by 27 points: <1%Houston Texans by 26 points: <1%Houston Texans by 25 points: 1%Houston Texans by 24 points: 1%Houston Texans by 23 points: 1%Houston Texans by 22 points: 1%Houston Texans by 21 points: 1%Houston Texans by 20 points: 1%Houston Texans by 19 points: 1%Houston Texans by 18 points: 1%Houston Texans by 17 points: 2%Houston Texans by 16 points: 1%Houston Texans by 15 points: 1%Houston Texans by 14 points: 3%Houston Texans by 13 points: 1%Houston Texans by 12 points: 1%Houston Texans by 11 points: 1%Houston Texans by 10 points: 3%Houston Texans by 9 points: 1%Houston Texans by 8 points: 2%Houston Texans by 7 points: 5%Houston Texans by 6 points: 3%Houston Texans by 5 points: 3%Houston Texans by 4 points: 3%Houston Texans by 3 points: 9%Houston Texans by 2 points: 2%Houston Texans by 1 point: 3%Tie: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 1 point: 2%Jacksonville Jaguars by 2 points: 3%Jacksonville Jaguars by 3 points: 7%Jacksonville Jaguars by 4 points: 2%Jacksonville Jaguars by 5 points: 2%Jacksonville Jaguars by 6 points: 4%Jacksonville Jaguars by 7 points: 3%Jacksonville Jaguars by 8 points: 2%Jacksonville Jaguars by 9 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 10 points: 2%Jacksonville Jaguars by 11 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 12 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 13 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 14 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 15 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 16 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 17 points: 2%Jacksonville Jaguars by 18 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 19 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 20 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 21 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 22 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 23 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 24 points: 1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 25 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 26 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 27 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 28 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 29 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 30 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 31 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 32 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 33 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 34 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 35 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 36 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 37 points: <1%Jacksonville Jaguars by 38 points: <1%
← HOU wins byJAX wins by →
Houston Texans wins by 3 or more52%
Houston Texans wins by 7 or more33%
Houston Texans wins by 10 or more25%
Within 3 points either way27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

40.4 expected
7 points: <1%8 points: <1%9 points: <1%10 points: <1%11 points: <1%12 points: <1%13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: 1%17 points: 1%18 points: 1%19 points: 1%20 points: 1%21 points: 1%22 points: 1%23 points: 2%24 points: 1%25 points: 2%26 points: 2%27 points: 2%28 points: 2%29 points: 2%30 points: 3%31 points: 2%32 points: 2%33 points: 3%34 points: 3%35 points: 3%36 points: 3%37 points: 3%38 points: 3%39 points: 3%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 3%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 2%49 points: 2%50 points: 2%51 points: 2%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 1%56 points: 1%57 points: 1%58 points: 1%59 points: 1%60 points: 1%61 points: 1%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: 1%67 points: <1%68 points: <1%69 points: <1%70 points: <1%71 points: <1%72 points: <1%73 points: <1%74 points: <1%75 points: <1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%79 points: <1%80 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 33.569%
Total over 40.548%
Total over 47.528%
Total from 34 to 4740%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
HOUC.J. Stroud · last 3 games: 65% completions, 213 yds/game, 1 TD, 1 INTstarted
JAXTrevor Lawrence · last 3 games: 57% completions, 163 yds/game, 4 TD, 4 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
HOU·JAX
Sep 15, 2025 vs TB
last game
Sep 14, 2025 at CIN
5 days
days of rest
6 days
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 2+ games
HOU·JAX
−0.03
rating (0 = average)
−0.46
14.0
points / game
26.5
17.0
points allowed / game
20.5
0−2
season record
1−1
0−1
home record
1−0
0−1
away record
0−1
L2
streak
L1
4−6
last 10
3−7
266
total yards / game
389
5.2
yards / play
5.8
166
passing yards / game
220
99
rushing yards / game
170
15.0
first downs / game
20.0
1.0
turnovers / game
1.5

Rating Trend

HOU · JAX · 5 days
Houston TexansJacksonville Jaguars
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 8 meetings · JAX 2−6
Dec 1, 2024at JAXHOU 23 − 20
Sep 29, 2024at HOUHOU 24 − 20
Nov 26, 2023at HOUJAX 24 − 21
Sep 24, 2023at JAXHOU 37 − 17
Jan 1, 2023at HOUJAX 31 − 3
Oct 9, 2022at JAXHOU 13 − 6
Dec 19, 2021at JAXHOU 30 − 16
Sep 12, 2021at HOUHOU 37 − 21

HOU · Last 10

4−6 · streak L3
Sep 15, 2025vs TB19 − 20L
Sep 7, 2025at LAR9 − 14L
Jan 18, 2025at KC14 − 23L
Jan 11, 2025vs LAC32 − 12W
Jan 5, 2025at TEN23 − 14W
Dec 25, 2024vs BAL2 − 31L
Dec 21, 2024at KC19 − 27L
Dec 15, 2024vs MIA20 − 12W
Dec 1, 2024at JAX23 − 20W
Nov 24, 2024vs TEN27 − 32L

JAX · Last 10

3−7 · streak L1
Sep 14, 2025at CIN27 − 31L
Sep 7, 2025vs CAR26 − 10W
Jan 5, 2025at IND23 − 26L
Dec 29, 2024vs TEN20 − 13W
Dec 22, 2024at LV14 − 19L
Dec 15, 2024vs NYJ25 − 32L
Dec 8, 2024at TEN10 − 6W
Dec 1, 2024vs HOU20 − 23L
Nov 17, 2024at DET6 − 52L
Nov 10, 2024vs MIN7 − 12L