bayesRatings

Colts at Titans

NFL · Sunday, Sep 21 · 12:00 PM CT · Nissan Stadium · Final IND 41 – TEN 20
← NFL / Sep 21, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
IND17314741
TEN337720
Team box
IND·TEN
365
total yards
282
228
passing yards
196
137
rushing yards
86
22
first downs
21
2-8
third downs
5-14
0
turnovers
1
28:41
time of possession
31:19
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Daniel JonesIND18/2522810
Cam WardTEN23/3821911
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Jonathan TaylorIND171023
Tony PollardTEN16451
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Michael Pittman Jr.IND6731
Chig OkonkwoTEN5660

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
TEN +21
IND +21
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: TEN 0 · IND 21lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was IND 67%, TEN 33% · Updated Sep 21, 2025

Expected margin
IND by 7.0
Expected score
IND 26.1 – 19.1 TEN
Expected total
45.3
ColtsThe matchupTitans
−207Our fair odds+207
26.1Expected points19.1
+0.04Power rating−1.00
31.0Points / game15.5
18.0Allowed / game26.5
446Total yards / game192
6.5Yards / play3.1
284Passing yards / game102
2−0Season record0−2
6−4Last 101−9

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
IND chance · TEN chance
Our model fair67.4%32.6%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
INDIndianapolis Colts−20767%————
TENTennessee Titans+20733%————
SpreadIND by 7.0
INDIndianapolis Colts−7our margin————
TENTennessee Titans+7our margin————
Totalwe expect 45.3
Over45.3our total————
Under45.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Indianapolis Colts by 7.0 expected
Indianapolis Colts by 40 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 39 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 38 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 37 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 36 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 35 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 34 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 33 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 32 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 31 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 30 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 29 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 28 points: 2%Indianapolis Colts by 27 points: <1%Indianapolis Colts by 26 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 25 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 24 points: 2%Indianapolis Colts by 23 points: 2%Indianapolis Colts by 22 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 21 points: 2%Indianapolis Colts by 20 points: 2%Indianapolis Colts by 19 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 18 points: 2%Indianapolis Colts by 17 points: 3%Indianapolis Colts by 16 points: 2%Indianapolis Colts by 15 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 14 points: 4%Indianapolis Colts by 13 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 12 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 11 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 10 points: 3%Indianapolis Colts by 9 points: 1%Indianapolis Colts by 8 points: 2%Indianapolis Colts by 7 points: 5%Indianapolis Colts by 6 points: 3%Indianapolis Colts by 5 points: 3%Indianapolis Colts by 4 points: 3%Indianapolis Colts by 3 points: 8%Indianapolis Colts by 2 points: 2%Indianapolis Colts by 1 point: 3%Tie: <1%Tennessee Titans by 1 point: 2%Tennessee Titans by 2 points: 3%Tennessee Titans by 3 points: 5%Tennessee Titans by 4 points: 2%Tennessee Titans by 5 points: 1%Tennessee Titans by 6 points: 3%Tennessee Titans by 7 points: 2%Tennessee Titans by 8 points: 2%Tennessee Titans by 9 points: 1%Tennessee Titans by 10 points: 1%Tennessee Titans by 11 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 12 points: 1%Tennessee Titans by 13 points: 1%Tennessee Titans by 14 points: 1%Tennessee Titans by 15 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 16 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 17 points: 1%Tennessee Titans by 18 points: 1%Tennessee Titans by 19 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 20 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 21 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 22 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 23 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 24 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 25 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 26 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 27 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 28 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 29 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 30 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 31 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 32 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 33 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 34 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 35 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 36 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 37 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 38 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 39 points: <1%Tennessee Titans by 40 points: <1%
← IND wins byTEN wins by →
Indianapolis Colts wins by 3 or more66%
Indianapolis Colts wins by 7 or more48%
Indianapolis Colts wins by 10 or more40%
Within 3 points either way23%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

45.3 expected
11 points: <1%12 points: <1%13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: <1%17 points: <1%18 points: <1%19 points: 1%20 points: <1%21 points: 1%22 points: 1%23 points: 1%24 points: 1%25 points: 1%26 points: 1%27 points: 1%28 points: 1%29 points: 2%30 points: 2%31 points: 2%32 points: 2%33 points: 2%34 points: 2%35 points: 2%36 points: 3%37 points: 3%38 points: 2%39 points: 3%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 3%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 2%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 2%58 points: 2%59 points: 2%60 points: 1%61 points: 1%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: 1%67 points: 1%68 points: 1%69 points: 1%70 points: 1%71 points: 1%72 points: <1%73 points: <1%74 points: <1%75 points: <1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%79 points: <1%80 points: <1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%85 points: <1%86 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 38.567%
Total over 45.547%
Total over 52.529%
Total from 39 to 5238%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
INDDaniel Jones · last 3 games: 67% completions, 259 yds/game, 2 TD, 2 INTstarted
TENCam Ward · last 2 games: 51% completions, 144 yds/game, 1 TD, 0 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
IND·TEN
Sep 14, 2025 vs DEN
last game
Sep 14, 2025 vs LAR
6 days
days of rest
6 days
road after a home game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 2+ games
IND·TEN
+0.04
rating (0 = average)
−1.00
31.0
points / game
15.5
18.0
points allowed / game
26.5
2−0
season record
0−2
2−0
home record
0−1
0−0
away record
0−1
W2
streak
L2
6−4
last 10
1−9
446
total yards / game
192
6.5
yards / play
3.1
284
passing yards / game
102
162
rushing yards / game
90
26.5
first downs / game
12.5
0.0
turnovers / game
1.5

Rating Trend

IND · TEN · 5 days
Indianapolis ColtsTennessee Titans
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 8 meetings · TEN 4−4
Dec 22, 2024at INDIND 38 − 30
Oct 13, 2024at TENIND 20 − 17
Dec 3, 2023at TENIND 31 − 28
Oct 8, 2023at INDIND 23 − 16
Oct 23, 2022at TENTEN 19 − 10
Oct 2, 2022at INDTEN 24 − 17
Oct 31, 2021at INDTEN 34 − 31
Sep 26, 2021at TENTEN 25 − 16

IND · Last 10

6−4 · streak W3
Sep 14, 2025vs DEN29 − 28W
Sep 7, 2025vs MIA33 − 8W
Jan 5, 2025vs JAX26 − 23W
Dec 29, 2024at NYG33 − 45L
Dec 22, 2024vs TEN38 − 30W
Dec 15, 2024at DEN13 − 31L
Dec 1, 2024at NE25 − 24W
Nov 24, 2024vs DET6 − 24L
Nov 17, 2024at NYJ28 − 27W
Nov 10, 2024vs BUF20 − 30L

TEN · Last 10

1−9 · streak L8
Sep 14, 2025vs LAR19 − 33L
Sep 7, 2025at DEN12 − 20L
Jan 5, 2025vs HOU14 − 23L
Dec 29, 2024at JAX13 − 20L
Dec 22, 2024at IND30 − 38L
Dec 15, 2024vs CIN27 − 37L
Dec 8, 2024vs JAX6 − 10L
Dec 1, 2024at WSH19 − 42L
Nov 24, 2024at HOU32 − 27W
Nov 17, 2024vs MIN13 − 23L