bayesRatings

Chiefs at Giants

NFL · Sunday, Sep 21 · 7:20 PM CT · MetLife Stadium · Final KC 22 – NYG 9
← NFL / Sep 21, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
KC367622
NYG06039
Team box
KC·NYG
306
total yards
281
201
passing yards
151
105
rushing yards
130
22
first downs
19
8-15
third downs
1-10
0
turnovers
2
31:50
time of possession
28:10
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Patrick MahomesKC22/3722410
Russell WilsonNYG18/3216002
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Isiah PachecoKC10450
Cam SkatteboNYG10601
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Tyquan ThorntonKC5711
Cam SkatteboNYG6610

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NYG +13
KC +13
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: NYG 0 · KC 13lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was KC 73%, NYG 27% · Updated Sep 21, 2025

Expected margin
KC by 9.3
Expected score
KC 25.1 – 15.8 NYG
Expected total
40.9
ChiefsThe matchupGiants
−273Our fair odds+273
25.1Expected points15.8
+0.44Power rating−0.92
19.0Points / game21.5
23.5Allowed / game30.5
320Total yards / game368
5.6Yards / play5.8
211Passing yards / game290
0−2Season record0−2
6−4Last 101−9

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
KC chance · NYG chance
Our model fair73.2%26.8%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
KCKansas City Chiefs−27373%————
NYGNew York Giants+27327%————
SpreadKC by 9.3
KCKansas City Chiefs−9.3our margin————
NYGNew York Giants+9.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 40.9
Over40.9our total————
Under40.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Kansas City Chiefs by 9.3 expected
Kansas City Chiefs by 40 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 39 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 38 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 37 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 36 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 35 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 34 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 33 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 32 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 31 points: 2%Kansas City Chiefs by 30 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 29 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 28 points: 3%Kansas City Chiefs by 27 points: <1%Kansas City Chiefs by 26 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 25 points: 2%Kansas City Chiefs by 24 points: 3%Kansas City Chiefs by 23 points: 3%Kansas City Chiefs by 22 points: 2%Kansas City Chiefs by 21 points: 3%Kansas City Chiefs by 20 points: 2%Kansas City Chiefs by 19 points: 2%Kansas City Chiefs by 18 points: 2%Kansas City Chiefs by 17 points: 4%Kansas City Chiefs by 16 points: 2%Kansas City Chiefs by 15 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 14 points: 5%Kansas City Chiefs by 13 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 12 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 11 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 10 points: 3%Kansas City Chiefs by 9 points: 1%Kansas City Chiefs by 8 points: 2%Kansas City Chiefs by 7 points: 5%Kansas City Chiefs by 6 points: 3%Kansas City Chiefs by 5 points: 3%Kansas City Chiefs by 4 points: 3%Kansas City Chiefs by 3 points: 7%Kansas City Chiefs by 2 points: 2%Kansas City Chiefs by 1 point: 2%Tie: <1%New York Giants by 1 point: 1%New York Giants by 2 points: 2%New York Giants by 3 points: 4%New York Giants by 4 points: 1%New York Giants by 5 points: 1%New York Giants by 6 points: 2%New York Giants by 7 points: 2%New York Giants by 8 points: 1%New York Giants by 9 points: <1%New York Giants by 10 points: 1%New York Giants by 11 points: <1%New York Giants by 12 points: 1%New York Giants by 13 points: 1%New York Giants by 14 points: 1%New York Giants by 15 points: <1%New York Giants by 16 points: <1%New York Giants by 17 points: 1%New York Giants by 18 points: 1%New York Giants by 19 points: <1%New York Giants by 20 points: <1%New York Giants by 21 points: <1%New York Giants by 22 points: <1%New York Giants by 23 points: <1%New York Giants by 24 points: <1%New York Giants by 25 points: <1%New York Giants by 26 points: <1%New York Giants by 27 points: <1%New York Giants by 28 points: <1%New York Giants by 29 points: <1%New York Giants by 30 points: <1%New York Giants by 31 points: <1%New York Giants by 32 points: <1%New York Giants by 33 points: <1%New York Giants by 34 points: <1%New York Giants by 35 points: <1%New York Giants by 36 points: <1%New York Giants by 37 points: <1%New York Giants by 38 points: <1%New York Giants by 39 points: <1%New York Giants by 40 points: <1%
← KC wins byNYG wins by →
Kansas City Chiefs wins by 3 or more71%
Kansas City Chiefs wins by 7 or more55%
Kansas City Chiefs wins by 10 or more48%
Within 3 points either way19%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

40.9 expected
7 points: <1%8 points: <1%9 points: <1%10 points: <1%11 points: <1%12 points: <1%13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: 1%17 points: 1%18 points: 1%19 points: 1%20 points: 1%21 points: 1%22 points: 1%23 points: 1%24 points: 1%25 points: 1%26 points: 2%27 points: 2%28 points: 2%29 points: 2%30 points: 3%31 points: 2%32 points: 2%33 points: 3%34 points: 3%35 points: 3%36 points: 3%37 points: 3%38 points: 3%39 points: 3%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 3%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 2%49 points: 2%50 points: 2%51 points: 2%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 1%56 points: 1%57 points: 1%58 points: 1%59 points: 1%60 points: 1%61 points: 1%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: 1%67 points: <1%68 points: <1%69 points: <1%70 points: <1%71 points: <1%72 points: <1%73 points: <1%74 points: <1%75 points: <1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%79 points: <1%80 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 33.570%
Total over 40.549%
Total over 47.530%
Total from 34 to 4740%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
KCPatrick Mahomes · last 3 games: 61% completions, 234 yds/game, 5 TD, 3 INTstarted
NYGRussell Wilson · last 3 games: 63% completions, 296 yds/game, 5 TD, 1 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
KC·NYG
Sep 14, 2025 vs PHI
last game
Sep 14, 2025 at DAL
6 days
days of rest
6 days
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 2+ games
KC·NYG
+0.44
rating (0 = average)
−0.92
19.0
points / game
21.5
23.5
points allowed / game
30.5
0−2
season record
0−2
0−1
home record
0−0
0−1
away record
0−2
L2
streak
L2
6−4
last 10
1−9
320
total yards / game
368
5.6
yards / play
5.8
211
passing yards / game
290
110
rushing yards / game
79
17.5
first downs / game
19.5
0.5
turnovers / game
0.5

Rating Trend

KC · NYG · 5 days
Kansas City ChiefsNew York Giants
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 1 meeting · NYG 0−1
Nov 1, 2021at KCKC 20 − 17

KC · Last 10

6−4 · streak L3
Sep 14, 2025vs PHI17 − 20L
Sep 5, 2025at LAC21 − 27L
Feb 9, 2025at PHI22 − 40L
Jan 26, 2025vs BUF32 − 29W
Jan 18, 2025vs HOU23 − 14W
Jan 5, 2025at DEN0 − 38L
Dec 25, 2024at PIT29 − 10W
Dec 21, 2024vs HOU27 − 19W
Dec 15, 2024at CLE21 − 7W
Dec 8, 2024vs LAC19 − 17W

NYG · Last 10

1−9 · streak L3
Sep 14, 2025at DAL37 − 40L
Sep 7, 2025at WSH6 − 21L
Jan 5, 2025at PHI13 − 20L
Dec 29, 2024vs IND45 − 33W
Dec 22, 2024at ATL7 − 34L
Dec 15, 2024vs BAL14 − 35L
Dec 8, 2024vs NO11 − 14L
Nov 28, 2024at DAL20 − 27L
Nov 24, 2024vs TB7 − 30L
Nov 10, 2024at CAR17 − 20L