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Raiders at Commanders

NFL · Sunday, Sep 21 · 12:00 PM CT · Northwest Stadium · Final LV 24 – WSH 41
← NFL / Sep 21, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
LV3701424
WSH71314741
Team box
LV·WSH
354
total yards
400
261
passing yards
199
93
rushing yards
201
17
first downs
17
3-14
third downs
5-10
0
turnovers
1
31:53
time of possession
28:07
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Geno SmithLV19/2928930
Marcus MariotaWSH15/2120710
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Ashton JeantyLV17630
Jeremy McNicholsWSH4781
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Tre TuckerLV81453
Terry McLaurinWSH3740

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
WSH +24
LV +24
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: WSH 24 · LV 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was LV 30%, WSH 70% · Updated Sep 21, 2025

Expected margin
WSH by 7.8
Expected score
WSH 26.5 – 18.8 LV
Expected total
45.3
RaidersThe matchupCommanders
+237Our fair odds−237
18.8Expected points26.5
−0.47Power rating+0.24
14.5Points / game19.5
16.5Allowed / game16.5
304Total yards / game331
4.8Yards / play5.0
242Passing yards / game196
1−1Season record1−1
3−7Last 108−2

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
LV chance · WSH chance
Our model fair29.7%70.3%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
LVLas Vegas Raiders+23730%————
WSHWashington Commanders−23770%————
SpreadWSH by 7.8
LVLas Vegas Raiders+7.8our margin————
WSHWashington Commanders−7.8our margin————
Totalwe expect 45.3
Over45.3our total————
Under45.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Washington Commanders by 7.8 expected
Las Vegas Raiders by 47 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 46 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 45 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 44 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 43 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 42 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 41 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 40 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 39 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 38 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 37 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 36 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 35 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 34 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 33 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 32 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 31 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 30 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 29 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 28 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 27 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 26 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 25 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 24 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 23 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 22 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 21 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 20 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 19 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 18 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 17 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 16 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 15 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 14 points: 2%Las Vegas Raiders by 13 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 12 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 11 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 10 points: 2%Las Vegas Raiders by 9 points: <1%Las Vegas Raiders by 8 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 7 points: 3%Las Vegas Raiders by 6 points: 2%Las Vegas Raiders by 5 points: 2%Las Vegas Raiders by 4 points: 2%Las Vegas Raiders by 3 points: 6%Las Vegas Raiders by 2 points: 1%Las Vegas Raiders by 1 point: 2%Tie: <1%Washington Commanders by 1 point: 2%Washington Commanders by 2 points: 3%Washington Commanders by 3 points: 7%Washington Commanders by 4 points: 2%Washington Commanders by 5 points: 2%Washington Commanders by 6 points: 4%Washington Commanders by 7 points: 4%Washington Commanders by 8 points: 3%Washington Commanders by 9 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 10 points: 2%Washington Commanders by 11 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 12 points: 2%Washington Commanders by 13 points: 2%Washington Commanders by 14 points: 2%Washington Commanders by 15 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 16 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 17 points: 4%Washington Commanders by 18 points: 2%Washington Commanders by 19 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 20 points: 2%Washington Commanders by 21 points: 2%Washington Commanders by 22 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 23 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 24 points: 2%Washington Commanders by 25 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 26 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 27 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 28 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 29 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 30 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 31 points: 2%Washington Commanders by 32 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 33 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 34 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 35 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 36 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 37 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 38 points: 1%Washington Commanders by 39 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 40 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 41 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 42 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 43 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 44 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 45 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 46 points: <1%Washington Commanders by 47 points: <1%
← LV wins byWSH wins by →
Washington Commanders wins by 3 or more65%
Washington Commanders wins by 7 or more49%
Washington Commanders wins by 10 or more41%
Within 3 points either way21%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

45.3 expected
11 points: <1%12 points: <1%13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: <1%17 points: <1%18 points: <1%19 points: 1%20 points: <1%21 points: 1%22 points: 1%23 points: 1%24 points: 1%25 points: 1%26 points: 1%27 points: 1%28 points: 1%29 points: 2%30 points: 2%31 points: 2%32 points: 2%33 points: 2%34 points: 2%35 points: 2%36 points: 3%37 points: 3%38 points: 2%39 points: 3%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 3%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 2%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 2%58 points: 2%59 points: 2%60 points: 1%61 points: 1%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: 1%67 points: 1%68 points: 1%69 points: 1%70 points: 1%71 points: 1%72 points: <1%73 points: <1%74 points: <1%75 points: <1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%79 points: <1%80 points: <1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%85 points: <1%86 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 38.567%
Total over 45.547%
Total over 52.529%
Total from 39 to 5238%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
LVGeno Smith · last 3 games: 65% completions, 255 yds/game, 5 TD, 4 INTstarted
WSHMarcus Mariota · last 3 games: 77% completions, 121 yds/game, 4 TD, 0 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
LV·WSH
Sep 15, 2025 vs LAC
last game
Sep 11, 2025 at GB
5 days
days of rest
9 days
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 2+ games
LV·WSH
−0.47
rating (0 = average)
+0.24
14.5
points / game
19.5
16.5
points allowed / game
16.5
1−1
season record
1−1
0−1
home record
1−0
1−0
away record
0−1
L1
streak
L1
3−7
last 10
8−2
304
total yards / game
331
4.8
yards / play
5.0
242
passing yards / game
196
62
rushing yards / game
136
18.0
first downs / game
20.0
2.0
turnovers / game
0.0

Rating Trend

LV · WSH · 5 days
Las Vegas RaidersWashington Commanders
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 1 meeting · WSH 1−0
Dec 5, 2021at LVWSH 17 − 15

LV · Last 10

3−7 · streak L1
Sep 15, 2025vs LAC9 − 20L
Sep 7, 2025at NE20 − 13W
Jan 5, 2025vs LAC20 − 34L
Dec 29, 2024at NO25 − 10W
Dec 22, 2024vs JAX19 − 14W
Dec 16, 2024vs ATL9 − 15L
Dec 8, 2024at TB13 − 28L
Nov 29, 2024at KC17 − 19L
Nov 24, 2024vs DEN19 − 29L
Nov 17, 2024at MIA19 − 34L

WSH · Last 10

8−2 · streak L1
Sep 11, 2025at GB18 − 27L
Sep 7, 2025vs NYG21 − 6W
Jan 26, 2025at PHI23 − 55L
Jan 18, 2025at DET45 − 31W
Jan 12, 2025at TB23 − 20W
Jan 5, 2025at DAL23 − 19W
Dec 29, 2024vs ATL30 − 24W
Dec 22, 2024vs PHI36 − 33W
Dec 15, 2024at NO20 − 19W
Dec 1, 2024vs TEN42 − 19W