bayesRatings

Rams at Eagles

NFL · Sunday, Sep 21 · 12:00 PM CT · Lincoln Financial Field · Final LAR 26 – PHI 33
← NFL / Sep 21, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
LAR1097026
PHI70141233
Team box
LAR·PHI
356
total yards
288
196
passing yards
202
160
rushing yards
86
22
first downs
19
3-10
third downs
5-14
1
turnovers
1
29:25
time of possession
30:35
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Matthew StaffordLAR19/3319621
Jalen HurtsPHI21/3222630
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Kyren WilliamsLAR20940
Saquon BarkleyPHI18460
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Puka NacuaLAR111120
A.J. BrownPHI61091

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
PHI +19
LAR +19
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: PHI 7 · LAR 19lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was LAR 29%, PHI 71% · Updated Sep 21, 2025

Expected margin
PHI by 7.8
Expected score
PHI 26.0 – 18.2 LAR
Expected total
44.3
RamsThe matchupEagles
+250Our fair odds−250
18.2Expected points26.0
+0.39Power rating+1.17
23.5Points / game22.0
14.0Allowed / game18.5
368Total yards / game259
6.3Yards / play4.3
257Passing yards / game119
2−0Season record2−0
8−2Last 109−1

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
LAR chance · PHI chance
Our model fair28.6%71.4%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
LARLos Angeles Rams+25029%————
PHIPhiladelphia Eagles−25071%————
SpreadPHI by 7.8
LARLos Angeles Rams+7.8our margin————
PHIPhiladelphia Eagles−7.8our margin————
Totalwe expect 44.3
Over44.3our total————
Under44.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Philadelphia Eagles by 7.8 expected
Los Angeles Rams by 47 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 46 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 45 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 44 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 43 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 42 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 41 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 40 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 39 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 38 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 37 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 36 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 35 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 34 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 33 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 32 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 31 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 30 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 29 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 28 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 27 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 26 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 25 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 24 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 23 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 22 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 21 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 20 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 19 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 18 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 17 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 16 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 15 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 14 points: 2%Los Angeles Rams by 13 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 12 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 11 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 10 points: 2%Los Angeles Rams by 9 points: <1%Los Angeles Rams by 8 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 7 points: 3%Los Angeles Rams by 6 points: 2%Los Angeles Rams by 5 points: 2%Los Angeles Rams by 4 points: 2%Los Angeles Rams by 3 points: 6%Los Angeles Rams by 2 points: 1%Los Angeles Rams by 1 point: 2%Tie: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 1 point: 2%Philadelphia Eagles by 2 points: 3%Philadelphia Eagles by 3 points: 7%Philadelphia Eagles by 4 points: 2%Philadelphia Eagles by 5 points: 2%Philadelphia Eagles by 6 points: 4%Philadelphia Eagles by 7 points: 4%Philadelphia Eagles by 8 points: 3%Philadelphia Eagles by 9 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 10 points: 2%Philadelphia Eagles by 11 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 12 points: 2%Philadelphia Eagles by 13 points: 2%Philadelphia Eagles by 14 points: 2%Philadelphia Eagles by 15 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 16 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 17 points: 4%Philadelphia Eagles by 18 points: 2%Philadelphia Eagles by 19 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 20 points: 2%Philadelphia Eagles by 21 points: 2%Philadelphia Eagles by 22 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 23 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 24 points: 2%Philadelphia Eagles by 25 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 26 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 27 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 28 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 29 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 30 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 31 points: 2%Philadelphia Eagles by 32 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 33 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 34 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 35 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 36 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 37 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 38 points: 1%Philadelphia Eagles by 39 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 40 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 41 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 42 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 43 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 44 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 45 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 46 points: <1%Philadelphia Eagles by 47 points: <1%
← LAR wins byPHI wins by →
Philadelphia Eagles wins by 3 or more65%
Philadelphia Eagles wins by 7 or more49%
Philadelphia Eagles wins by 10 or more41%
Within 3 points either way21%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

44.3 expected
10 points: <1%11 points: <1%12 points: <1%13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: <1%17 points: <1%18 points: <1%19 points: 1%20 points: 1%21 points: 1%22 points: 1%23 points: 1%24 points: 1%25 points: 1%26 points: 1%27 points: 1%28 points: 1%29 points: 2%30 points: 2%31 points: 2%32 points: 2%33 points: 2%34 points: 2%35 points: 2%36 points: 3%37 points: 3%38 points: 3%39 points: 3%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 3%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 2%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 2%58 points: 2%59 points: 1%60 points: 1%61 points: 1%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: 1%67 points: 1%68 points: 1%69 points: 1%70 points: <1%71 points: 1%72 points: <1%73 points: <1%74 points: <1%75 points: <1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%79 points: <1%80 points: <1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%85 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 37.567%
Total over 44.547%
Total over 51.528%
Total from 38 to 5139%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
LARMatthew Stafford · last 3 games: 66% completions, 289 yds/game, 5 TD, 1 INTstarted
PHIJalen Hurts · last 3 games: 76% completions, 158 yds/game, 2 TD, 1 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
LAR·PHI
Sep 14, 2025 at TEN
last game
Sep 14, 2025 at KC
6 days
days of rest
6 days
2nd straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 2+ games
LAR·PHI
+0.39
rating (0 = average)
+1.17
23.5
points / game
22.0
14.0
points allowed / game
18.5
2−0
season record
2−0
1−0
home record
1−0
1−0
away record
1−0
W2
streak
W2
8−2
last 10
9−1
368
total yards / game
259
6.3
yards / play
4.3
257
passing yards / game
119
110
rushing yards / game
140
20.0
first downs / game
18.0
1.0
turnovers / game
0.0

Rating Trend

LAR · PHI · 5 days
Los Angeles RamsPhiladelphia Eagles
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 3 meetings · PHI 3−0
Jan 19, 2025at PHIPHI 28 − 22post
Nov 24, 2024at LARPHI 37 − 20
Oct 8, 2023at LARPHI 23 − 14

LAR · Last 10

8−2 · streak W2
Sep 14, 2025at TEN33 − 19W
Sep 7, 2025vs HOU14 − 9W
Jan 19, 2025at PHI22 − 28L
Jan 13, 2025vs MIN27 − 9W
Jan 5, 2025vs SEA25 − 30L
Dec 28, 2024vs ARI13 − 9W
Dec 22, 2024at NYJ19 − 9W
Dec 12, 2024at SF12 − 6W
Dec 8, 2024vs BUF44 − 42W
Dec 1, 2024at NO21 − 14W

PHI · Last 10

9−1 · streak W8
Sep 14, 2025at KC20 − 17W
Sep 4, 2025vs DAL24 − 20W
Feb 9, 2025vs KC40 − 22W
Jan 26, 2025vs WSH55 − 23W
Jan 19, 2025vs LAR28 − 22W
Jan 12, 2025vs GB22 − 10W
Jan 5, 2025vs NYG20 − 13W
Dec 29, 2024vs DAL41 − 7W
Dec 22, 2024at WSH33 − 36L
Dec 15, 2024vs PIT27 − 13W