bayesRatings

Saints at Seahawks

NFL · Sunday, Sep 21 · 3:05 PM CT · Lumen Field · Final NO 13 – SEA 44
← NFL / Sep 21, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
NO060713
SEA21176044
Team box
NO·SEA
284
total yards
320
205
passing yards
233
79
rushing yards
87
21
first downs
22
5-15
third downs
3-9
1
turnovers
1
32:16
time of possession
27:44
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Spencer RattlerNO28/3921811
Sam DarnoldSEA14/1821820
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Alvin KamaraNO18420
Kenneth Walker IIISEA16382
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Chris OlaveNO10570
Jaxon Smith-NjigbaSEA5961

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
SEA +38
NO +38
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: SEA 38 · NO 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NO 29%, SEA 71% · Updated Sep 21, 2025

Expected margin
SEA by 6.4
Expected score
SEA 22.8 – 16.4 NO
Expected total
39.1
SaintsThe matchupSeahawks
+245Our fair odds−245
16.4Expected points22.8
−0.56Power rating+0.19
17.0Points / game22.0
23.0Allowed / game17.0
311Total yards / game312
4.6Yards / play5.4
197Passing yards / game212
0−2Season record1−1
3−7Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NO chance · SEA chance
Our model fair29.0%71.0%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NONew Orleans Saints+24529%————
SEASeattle Seahawks−24571%————
SpreadSEA by 6.4
NONew Orleans Saints+6.4our margin————
SEASeattle Seahawks−6.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 39.1
Over39.1our total————
Under39.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Seattle Seahawks by 6.4 expected
New Orleans Saints by 46 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 45 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 44 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 43 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 42 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 41 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 40 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 39 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 38 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 37 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 36 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 35 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 34 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 33 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 32 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 31 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 30 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 29 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 28 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 27 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 26 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 25 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 24 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 23 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 22 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 21 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 20 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 19 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 18 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 17 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 16 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 15 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 14 points: 2%New Orleans Saints by 13 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 12 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 11 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 10 points: 2%New Orleans Saints by 9 points: <1%New Orleans Saints by 8 points: 1%New Orleans Saints by 7 points: 3%New Orleans Saints by 6 points: 2%New Orleans Saints by 5 points: 2%New Orleans Saints by 4 points: 2%New Orleans Saints by 3 points: 7%New Orleans Saints by 2 points: 2%New Orleans Saints by 1 point: 2%Tie: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 1 point: 2%Seattle Seahawks by 2 points: 3%Seattle Seahawks by 3 points: 7%Seattle Seahawks by 4 points: 2%Seattle Seahawks by 5 points: 2%Seattle Seahawks by 6 points: 4%Seattle Seahawks by 7 points: 4%Seattle Seahawks by 8 points: 3%Seattle Seahawks by 9 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 10 points: 2%Seattle Seahawks by 11 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 12 points: 2%Seattle Seahawks by 13 points: 2%Seattle Seahawks by 14 points: 2%Seattle Seahawks by 15 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 16 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 17 points: 4%Seattle Seahawks by 18 points: 2%Seattle Seahawks by 19 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 20 points: 2%Seattle Seahawks by 21 points: 2%Seattle Seahawks by 22 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 23 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 24 points: 2%Seattle Seahawks by 25 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 26 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 27 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 28 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 29 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 30 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 31 points: 2%Seattle Seahawks by 32 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 33 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 34 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 35 points: 1%Seattle Seahawks by 36 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 37 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 38 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 39 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 40 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 41 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 42 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 43 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 44 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 45 points: <1%Seattle Seahawks by 46 points: <1%
← NO wins bySEA wins by →
Seattle Seahawks wins by 3 or more61%
Seattle Seahawks wins by 7 or more45%
Seattle Seahawks wins by 10 or more37%
Within 3 points either way23%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

39.1 expected
6 points: <1%7 points: <1%8 points: <1%9 points: <1%10 points: <1%11 points: <1%12 points: <1%13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: 1%17 points: 1%18 points: 1%19 points: 1%20 points: 1%21 points: 1%22 points: 1%23 points: 2%24 points: 2%25 points: 2%26 points: 2%27 points: 2%28 points: 2%29 points: 3%30 points: 3%31 points: 2%32 points: 3%33 points: 3%34 points: 3%35 points: 3%36 points: 3%37 points: 3%38 points: 3%39 points: 3%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 3%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 2%46 points: 2%47 points: 2%48 points: 2%49 points: 2%50 points: 2%51 points: 2%52 points: 2%53 points: 1%54 points: 1%55 points: 1%56 points: 1%57 points: 1%58 points: 1%59 points: 1%60 points: 1%61 points: 1%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: <1%65 points: 1%66 points: <1%67 points: <1%68 points: <1%69 points: <1%70 points: <1%71 points: <1%72 points: <1%73 points: <1%74 points: <1%75 points: <1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 32.568%
Total over 39.547%
Total over 46.527%
Total from 33 to 4641%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
NOSpencer Rattler · last 3 games: 64% completions, 220 yds/game, 4 TD, 0 INTstarted
SEASam Darnold · last 3 games: 66% completions, 230 yds/game, 3 TD, 3 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NO·SEA
Sep 14, 2025 vs SF
last game
Sep 14, 2025 at PIT
6 days
days of rest
6 days
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 2+ games
NO·SEA
−0.56
rating (0 = average)
+0.19
17.0
points / game
22.0
23.0
points allowed / game
17.0
0−2
season record
1−1
0−2
home record
0−1
0−0
away record
1−0
L2
streak
W1
3−7
last 10
7−3
311
total yards / game
312
4.6
yards / play
5.4
197
passing yards / game
212
114
rushing yards / game
100
21.0
first downs / game
17.5
0.5
turnovers / game
2.0

Rating Trend

NO · SEA · 5 days
New Orleans SaintsSeattle Seahawks
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 2 meetings · SEA 0−2
Oct 9, 2022at NONO 39 − 32
Oct 25, 2021at SEANO 13 − 10

NO · Last 10

3−7 · streak L6
Sep 14, 2025vs SF21 − 26L
Sep 7, 2025vs ARI13 − 20L
Jan 5, 2025at TB19 − 27L
Dec 29, 2024vs LV10 − 25L
Dec 23, 2024at GB0 − 34L
Dec 15, 2024vs WSH19 − 20L
Dec 8, 2024at NYG14 − 11W
Dec 1, 2024vs LAR14 − 21L
Nov 17, 2024vs CLE35 − 14W
Nov 10, 2024vs ATL20 − 17W

SEA · Last 10

7−3 · streak W1
Sep 14, 2025at PIT31 − 17W
Sep 7, 2025vs SF13 − 17L
Jan 5, 2025at LAR30 − 25W
Dec 26, 2024at CHI6 − 3W
Dec 22, 2024vs MIN24 − 27L
Dec 15, 2024vs GB13 − 30L
Dec 8, 2024at ARI30 − 18W
Dec 1, 2024at NYJ26 − 21W
Nov 24, 2024vs ARI16 − 6W
Nov 17, 2024at SF20 − 17W