bayesRatings

Jets at Buccaneers

NFL · Sunday, Sep 21 · 12:00 PM CT · Raymond James Stadium · Final NYJ 27 – TB 29
← NFL / Sep 21, 2025

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234T
NYJ3302127
TB3173629
Team box
NYJ·TB
267
total yards
347
168
passing yards
225
99
rushing yards
122
21
first downs
19
3-11
third downs
4-13
2
turnovers
0
27:49
time of possession
32:11
Passing
PlayerTeamC/ATTYDSTDINT
Tyrod TaylorNYJ26/3619721
Baker MayfieldTB19/2923310
Rushing
PlayerTeamCARYDSTD
Tyrod TaylorNYJ8480
Bucky IrvingTB25660
Receiving
PlayerTeamRECYDSTD
Garrett WilsonNYJ10841
Emeka EgbukaTB6850

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
TB +17
NYJ +17
Q1Q2Q3Q4
largest lead: TB 17 · NYJ 3lead changes: 3

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NYJ 22%, TB 78% · Updated Sep 21, 2025

Expected margin
TB by 12.5
Expected score
TB 30.1 – 17.6 NYJ
Expected total
47.6
JetsThe matchupBuccaneers
+349Our fair odds−349
17.6Expected points30.1
−0.66Power rating+0.49
21.0Points / game21.5
32.0Allowed / game19.5
274Total yards / game310
4.8Yards / play4.8
133Passing yards / game175
0−2Season record2−0
2−8Last 108−2

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NYJ chance · TB chance
Our model fair22.3%77.7%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NYJNew York Jets+34922%————
TBTampa Bay Buccaneers−34978%————
SpreadTB by 12.5
NYJNew York Jets+12.5our margin————
TBTampa Bay Buccaneers−12.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 47.6
Over47.6our total————
Under47.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 12.5 expected
New York Jets by 49 points: <1%New York Jets by 48 points: <1%New York Jets by 47 points: <1%New York Jets by 46 points: <1%New York Jets by 45 points: <1%New York Jets by 44 points: <1%New York Jets by 43 points: <1%New York Jets by 42 points: <1%New York Jets by 41 points: <1%New York Jets by 40 points: <1%New York Jets by 39 points: <1%New York Jets by 38 points: <1%New York Jets by 37 points: <1%New York Jets by 36 points: <1%New York Jets by 35 points: <1%New York Jets by 34 points: <1%New York Jets by 33 points: <1%New York Jets by 32 points: <1%New York Jets by 31 points: <1%New York Jets by 30 points: <1%New York Jets by 29 points: <1%New York Jets by 28 points: <1%New York Jets by 27 points: <1%New York Jets by 26 points: <1%New York Jets by 25 points: <1%New York Jets by 24 points: <1%New York Jets by 23 points: <1%New York Jets by 22 points: <1%New York Jets by 21 points: <1%New York Jets by 20 points: <1%New York Jets by 19 points: <1%New York Jets by 18 points: <1%New York Jets by 17 points: <1%New York Jets by 16 points: <1%New York Jets by 15 points: <1%New York Jets by 14 points: 1%New York Jets by 13 points: <1%New York Jets by 12 points: <1%New York Jets by 11 points: <1%New York Jets by 10 points: 1%New York Jets by 9 points: <1%New York Jets by 8 points: 1%New York Jets by 7 points: 2%New York Jets by 6 points: 1%New York Jets by 5 points: 1%New York Jets by 4 points: 2%New York Jets by 3 points: 5%New York Jets by 2 points: 1%New York Jets by 1 point: 2%Tie: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 1 point: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 2 points: 3%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 3 points: 6%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 4 points: 2%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 5 points: 2%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 6 points: 4%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 7 points: 4%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 8 points: 3%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 9 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 10 points: 2%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 11 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 12 points: 2%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 13 points: 2%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 14 points: 3%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 15 points: 2%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 16 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 17 points: 4%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 18 points: 2%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 19 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 20 points: 2%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 21 points: 2%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 22 points: 2%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 23 points: 2%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 24 points: 3%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 25 points: 2%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 26 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 27 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 28 points: 2%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 29 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 30 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 31 points: 3%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 32 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 33 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 34 points: 2%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 35 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 36 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 37 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 38 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 39 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 40 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 41 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 42 points: 1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 43 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 44 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 45 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 46 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 47 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 48 points: <1%Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 49 points: <1%
← NYJ wins byTB wins by →
Tampa Bay Buccaneers wins by 3 or more76%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers wins by 7 or more62%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers wins by 10 or more53%
Within 3 points either way18%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Total range

47.6 expected
13 points: <1%14 points: <1%15 points: <1%16 points: <1%17 points: <1%18 points: <1%19 points: <1%20 points: <1%21 points: <1%22 points: 1%23 points: 1%24 points: 1%25 points: 1%26 points: 1%27 points: 1%28 points: 1%29 points: 1%30 points: 2%31 points: 1%32 points: 2%33 points: 2%34 points: 2%35 points: 2%36 points: 2%37 points: 3%38 points: 2%39 points: 2%40 points: 3%41 points: 3%42 points: 2%43 points: 3%44 points: 3%45 points: 3%46 points: 3%47 points: 3%48 points: 3%49 points: 3%50 points: 2%51 points: 3%52 points: 2%53 points: 2%54 points: 2%55 points: 2%56 points: 2%57 points: 2%58 points: 2%59 points: 2%60 points: 2%61 points: 2%62 points: 1%63 points: 1%64 points: 1%65 points: 1%66 points: 1%67 points: 1%68 points: 1%69 points: 1%70 points: 1%71 points: 1%72 points: 1%73 points: 1%74 points: 1%75 points: 1%76 points: <1%77 points: <1%78 points: <1%79 points: <1%80 points: <1%81 points: <1%82 points: <1%83 points: <1%84 points: <1%85 points: <1%86 points: <1%87 points: <1%88 points: <1%89 points: <1%90 points: <1%
Total points, both teams
Total over 40.567%
Total over 47.547%
Total over 54.530%
Total from 41 to 5437%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from the real results of 1,401 past NFL games.

Starting QBs

from the box score
NYJTyrod Taylor · last 3 games: 73% completions, 58 yds/game, 4 TD, 0 INTstarted
TBBaker Mayfield · last 3 games: 65% completions, 189 yds/game, 7 TD, 0 INTstarted

For context, not in our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NYJ·TB
Sep 14, 2025 vs BUF
last game
Sep 15, 2025 at HOU
6 days
days of rest
5 days
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2025 season · box-score averages from 2+ games
NYJ·TB
−0.66
rating (0 = average)
+0.49
21.0
points / game
21.5
32.0
points allowed / game
19.5
0−2
season record
2−0
0−2
home record
0−0
0−0
away record
2−0
L2
streak
W2
2−8
last 10
8−2
274
total yards / game
310
4.8
yards / play
4.8
133
passing yards / game
175
141
rushing yards / game
135
17.0
first downs / game
20.5
1.0
turnovers / game
0.0

Rating Trend

NYJ · TB · 5 days
New York JetsTampa Bay Buccaneers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 1 meeting · TB 1−0
Jan 2, 2022at NYJTB 28 − 24

NYJ · Last 10

2−8 · streak L2
Sep 14, 2025vs BUF10 − 30L
Sep 7, 2025vs PIT32 − 34L
Jan 5, 2025vs MIA32 − 20W
Dec 29, 2024at BUF14 − 40L
Dec 22, 2024vs LAR9 − 19L
Dec 15, 2024at JAX32 − 25W
Dec 8, 2024at MIA26 − 32L
Dec 1, 2024vs SEA21 − 26L
Nov 17, 2024vs IND27 − 28L
Nov 10, 2024at ARI6 − 31L

TB · Last 10

8−2 · streak W2
Sep 15, 2025at HOU20 − 19W
Sep 7, 2025at ATL23 − 20W
Jan 12, 2025vs WSH20 − 23L
Jan 5, 2025vs NO27 − 19W
Dec 29, 2024vs CAR48 − 14W
Dec 22, 2024at DAL24 − 26L
Dec 15, 2024at LAC40 − 17W
Dec 8, 2024vs LV28 − 13W
Dec 1, 2024at CAR26 − 23W
Nov 24, 2024at NYG30 − 7W